Present day greenhouse gases could cause more frequent and longer Dust Bowl heatwaves

Substantial warming occurred across North America, Europe and the Arctic over the early twentieth century1, including an increase in global drought2, that was partially forced by rising greenhouse gases (GHGs)3. The period included the 1930s Dust Bowl drought4,5,6,7 across North America’s Great Plains that caused widespread crop failures4,8, large dust storms9 and considerable out-migration10. This coincided with the central United States experiencing its hottest summers of the twentieth century11,12 in 1934 and 1936, with over 40 heatwave days and maximum temperatures surpassing 44 °C at some locations13,14. Here we use a large-ensemble regional modelling framework to show that GHG increases caused slightly enhanced heatwave activity over the eastern United States during 1934 and 1936. Instead of asking how a present-day heatwave would behave in a world without climate warming, we ask how these 1930s heatwaves would behave with present-day GHGs. Heatwave activity in similarly rare events would be much larger under today’s atmospheric GHG forcing and the return period of a 1-in-100-year heatwave summer (as observed in 1936) would be reduced to about 1-in-40 years. A key driver of the increasing heatwave activity and intensity is reduced evaporative cooling and increased sensible heating during dry springs and summers

Characterization of the Psychological, Physiological and EEG Profile of Acute Betel Quid Intoxication in Naïve Subjects

Betel quid use and abuse is wide spread in Asia but the physiological basis of intoxication and addiction are unknown. In subjects naïve to the habit of betel quid intoxication, the psychological and physiological profile of intoxication has never been reported. We compared the effect of chewing gum or chewing betel quid, and subsequent betel quid intoxication, on psychological assessment, prospective time interval estimation, numerical and character digit span, computerized 2 choice tests and mental tasks such as reading and mathematics with concurrent monitoring of ECG, EEG and face temperature in healthy, non-sleep deprived, male subjects naïve to the habit of chewing betel quid. Betel quid intoxication, dose dependently induced tachycardia (max 30 bpm) and elevated face temperature (0.7°C) (P<0.001) above the effects observed in response to chewing gum (max 12 bpm and 0.3°C) in 12 subjects. Gross behavioral indices of working memory such as numerical or character digit span in 8 subjects, or simple visual-motor performance such as reaction speed or accuracy in a two choice scenario in 8 subjects were not affected by betel quid intoxication. Betel quid intoxication strongly influenced the psychological aspects of perception such as slowing of the prospective perception of passage of a 1 minute time interval in 8 subjects (P<0.05) and perceived increased arousal (P<0.01) and perceived decreased ability to think (P<0.05) in 31 subjects. The EEG spectral profile recorded from mental states associated with open and closed eyes, and mental tasks such as reading and eyes closed mental arithmetic were significantly modified (P<0.05) relative to chewing gum by betel quid intoxication in 10 subjects. The prevalence of betel quid consumption across a range of social and work settings warrants greater investigation of this widespread but largely under researched drug

Sex differences in the association between plasma copeptin and incident type 2 diabetes: the Prevention of Renal and Vascular Endstage Disease (PREVEND) study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Vasopressin plays a role in osmoregulation, glucose homeostasis and inflammation. Therefore, plasma copeptin, the stable C-terminal portion of the precursor of vasopressin, has strong potential as a biomarker for the cardiometabolic syndrome and diabetes. Previous results were contradictory, which may be explained by differences between men and women in responsiveness of the vasopressin system. The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of copeptin for prediction of future type 2 diabetes in men and women separately. METHODS: From the Prevention of Renal and Vascular Endstage Disease (PREVEND) study, 4,063 women and 3,909 men without diabetes at baseline were included. A total of 208 women and 288 men developed diabetes during a median follow-up of 7.7 years. RESULTS: In multivariable-adjusted models, we observed a stronger association of copeptin with risk of future diabetes in women (OR 1.49 [95% CI 1.24, 1.79]) than in men (OR 1.01 [95% CI 0.85, 1.19]) (p (interaction) < 0.01). The addition of copeptin to the Data from the Epidemiological Study on the Insulin Resistance Syndrome (DESIR) clinical model improved the discriminative value (C-statistic,+0.007, p = 0.02) and reclassification (integrated discrimination improvement [IDI] = 0.004, p < 0.01) in women. However, we observed no improvement in men. The additive value of copeptin in women was maintained when other independent predictors, such as glucose, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and 24 h urinary albumin excretion (UAE), were included in the model. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The association of plasma copeptin with the risk of developing diabetes was stronger in women than in men. Plasma copeptin alone, and along with existing biomarkers (glucose, hs-CRP and UAE), significantly improved the risk prediction for diabetes in women

Framework, principles and recommendations for utilising participatory methodologies in the co-creation and evaluation of public health interventions

Background: Due to the chronic disease burden on society, there is a need for preventive public health interventions to stimulate society towards a healthier lifestyle. To deal with the complex variability between individual lifestyles and settings, collaborating with end-users to develop interventions tailored to their unique circumstances has been suggested as a potential way to improve effectiveness and adherence. Co-creation of public health interventions using participatory methodologies has shown promise but lacks a framework to make this process systematic. The aim of this paper was to identify and set key principles and recommendations for systematically applying participatory methodologies to co-create and evaluate public health interventions. Methods: These principles and recommendations were derived using an iterative reflection process, combining key learning from published literature in addition to critical reflection on three case studies conducted by research groups in three European institutions, all of whom have expertise in co-creating public health interventions using different participatory methodologies. Results: Key principles and recommendations for using participatory methodologies in public health intervention co-creation are presented for the stages of: Planning (framing the aim of the study and identifying the appropriate sampling strategy); Conducting (defining the procedure, in addition to manifesting ownership); Evaluating (the process and the effectiveness) and Reporting (providing guidelines to report the findings). Three scaling models are proposed to demonstrate how to scale locally developed interventions to a population level. Conclusions: These recommendations aim to facilitate public health intervention co-creation and evaluation utilising participatory methodologies by ensuring the process is systematic and reproducible

Impact of Selection and Demography on the Diffusion of Lactase Persistence

BACKGROUND: The lactase enzyme allows lactose digestion in fresh milk. Its activity strongly decreases after the weaning phase in most humans, but persists at a high frequency in Europe and some nomadic populations. Two hypotheses are usually proposed to explain the particular distribution of the lactase persistence phenotype. The gene-culture coevolution hypothesis supposes a nutritional advantage of lactose digestion in pastoral populations. The calcium assimilation hypothesis suggests that carriers of the lactase persistence allele(s) (LCT*P) are favoured in high-latitude regions, where sunshine is insufficient to allow accurate vitamin-D synthesis. In this work, we test the validity of these two hypotheses on a large worldwide dataset of lactase persistence frequencies by using several complementary approaches. METHODOLOGY: We first analyse the distribution of lactase persistence in various continents in relation to geographic variation, pastoralism levels, and the genetic patterns observed for other independent polymorphisms. Then we use computer simulations and a large database of archaeological dates for the introduction of domestication to explore the evolution of these frequencies in Europe according to different demographic scenarios and selection intensities. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that gene-culture coevolution is a likely hypothesis in Africa as high LCT*P frequencies are preferentially found in pastoral populations. In Europe, we show that population history played an important role in the diffusion of lactase persistence over the continent. Moreover, selection pressure on lactase persistence has been very high in the North-western part of the continent, by contrast to the South-eastern part where genetic drift alone can explain the observed frequencies. This selection pressure increasing with latitude is highly compatible with the calcium assimilation hypothesis while the gene-culture coevolution hypothesis cannot be ruled out if a positively selected lactase gene was carried at the front of the expansion wave during the Neolithic transition in Europe

Methods for specifying the target difference in a randomised controlled trial : the Difference ELicitation in TriAls (DELTA) systematic review

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Prevalence, Causes and Socio-Economic Determinants of Vision Loss in Cape Town, South Africa

PURPOSE: To estimate the prevalence and causes of blindness and visual impairment in Cape Town, South Africa and to explore socio-economic and demographic predictors of vision loss in this setting. METHODS: A cross sectional population-based survey was conducted in Cape Town. Eighty-two clusters were selected using probability proportionate to size sampling. Within each cluster 35 or 40 people aged 50 years and above were selected using compact segment sampling. Visual acuity of participants was assessed and eyes with a visual acuity less than 6/18 were examined by an ophthalmologist to determine the cause of vision loss. Demographic data (age, gender and education) were collected and a socio-economic status (SES) index was created using principal components analysis. RESULTS: Out of 3100 eligible people, 2750 (89%) were examined. The sample prevalence of bilateral blindness (presenting visual acuity <3/60) was 1.4% (95% CI 0.9-1.8). Posterior segment diseases accounted for 65% of blindness and cataract was responsible for 27%. The prevalence of vision loss was highest among people over 80 years (odds ratio (OR) 6.9 95% CI 4.6-10.6), those in the poorest SES group (OR 3.9 95% CI 2.2-6.7) and people with no formal education (OR 5.4 95% CI 1.7-16.6). Cataract surgical coverage was 68% in the poorest SES tertile (68%) compared to 93% in the medium and 100% in the highest tertile. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of blindness among people ≥50 years in Cape Town was lower than expected and the contribution of posterior segment diseases higher than previously reported in South Africa and Sub Saharan Africa. There were clear socio-economic disparities in prevalence of vision loss and cataract surgical coverage in this setting which need to be addressed in blindness prevention programs

Utilizing associational resistance for biocontrol: impacted by temperature, supported by indirect defence

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Establishing a generalized polyepigenetic biomarker for tobacco smoking

Large-scale epigenome-wide association meta-analyses have identified multiple 'signatures'' of smoking. Drawing on these findings, we describe the construction of a polyepigenetic DNA methylation score that indexes smoking behavior and that can be utilized for multiple purposes in population health research. To validate the score, we use data from two birth cohort studies: The Dunedin Longitudinal Study, followed to age-38 years, and the Environmental Risk Study, followed to age-18 years. Longitudinal data show that changes in DNA methylation accumulate with increased exposure to tobacco smoking and attenuate with quitting. Data from twins discordant for smoking behavior show that smoking influences DNA methylation independently of genetic and environmental risk factors. Physiological data show that changes in DNA methylation track smoking-related changes in lung function and gum health over time. Moreover, DNA methylation changes predict corresponding changes in gene expression in pathways related to inflammation, immune response, and cellular trafficking. Finally, we present prospective data about the link between adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and epigenetic modifications; these findings document the importance of controlling for smoking-related DNA methylation changes when studying biological embedding of stress in life-course research. We introduce the polyepigenetic DNA methylation score as a tool both for discovery and theory-guided research in epigenetic epidemiology.This article is freely available via Open Access. Click on the Publisher URL to access it via the publisher's site.The Dunedin Longitudinal Study is funded by the New Zealand Health Research Council, the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment, the National Institute on Aging (AG032282), and the Medical Research Council (MR/P005918/1). The E-Risk Study is funded by the Medical Research Council (G1002190) and the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (HD077482). Additional support was provided by a Distinguished Investigator Award from the American Asthma Foundation to Dr. Mill, and by the Jacobs Foundation and the Avielle Foundation. Dr. Arseneault is the Mental Health Leadership Fellow for the U.K. Economic and Social Research Council. Dr. Belsky is a Jacobs Foundation Fellow. This work used a high-performance computing facility partially supported by grant 2016-IDG-1013 (“HARDAC + : Reproducible HPC for Next-generation Genomics”) from the North Carolina Biotechnology Center. Illumina DNA methylation data are accessible from the Gene Expression Omnibus (accession code: GSE105018).pre-print, post-print, publisher's PD