The political economy of international private insurance and fiscal policy.

We consider a two-country model in which international risk-sharing is beneficial. Even though complete contingent markets exist to trade private wealth, the fact that fiscal policy voting decisions have an impact on contingent wealth prices implies that government spending will be inflated in good states and deflated in bad ones, with the following general implications: (i) Prices of contingent wealth are distorted; (ii) Volatility of public spending increases; (iii) Incomplete insurance arises. An example shows that apart from the increase in the volatility of public spending, it is also possible that average spending increases in both countries. These distortions are shown to be stronger the more similar the two countries are in ex ante terms . We compare the decentralized system with a fiscal union contrasting eqUilibrium properties in terms of government spending and allocation of risk.Private international insurance; Market; Fiscal Union; Decentralized fiscal policy; Risksharing;

La crisis fiscal en España

El final de la burbuja inmobiliaria en 2007 conjuntamente con la peor crisis financiera internacional de los últimos ochenta años ha provocado en España una importante crisis bancaria, fiscal y financiera. Las consecuencias de la crisis son por todos conocidas: tasa de paro por encima del 25%, un elevado endeudamiento público y privado, un sector financiero dañado y en vías de saneamiento, etc. Aunque todo está relacionado, en este artículo nos vamos a centrar en la parte fiscal de la crisis y, en concreto, en el proceso de consolidación fiscal en el que estamos envueltos

From Bismarck to Beveridge : the other pension reform in Spain

El envejecimiento de la población es un proceso imparable que continúa suponiendo un reto para la sostenibilidad del sistema de reparto de pensiones en la mayoría de los países desarrollados, incluida España. Gran parte de estos países necesitan llevar a cabo reformas en sus sistemas de pensiones para controlar su gasto y, en algunos casos, ya han empezado. Sin embargo, existen otros mecanismos que suponen cambios en parámetros del sistema, que al ser percibidos como secundarios por los ciudadanos no son apreciados como tal reforma. Este es el caso de modificaciones en los topes de las pensiones y de las bases de cotización y que en España se ha denominado, por parte de los expertos en pensiones, como la «Reforma silenciosa». El objetivo de este documento es analizar las implicaciones que este tipo de reforma tendría en el caso de España, siendo el primer trabajo que cuantifi ca y evalúa su potencial impacto en dicho país. Con este fin se ha empleado un modelo de proyección contable, con generaciones solapadas y agentes heterogéneos, de gastos del sistema de pensiones español hasta el año 2070. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que este tipo de reforma no solo tendría potencial para contener el gasto futuro, sino que también podría suponer un cambio en la naturaleza del sistema al ser capaz de convertir un sistema contributivo (o Bismarckiano) en otro de tipo asistencial (o Beveridge). Esto último podría tener importantes consecuencias, pues ambos sistemas persiguen objetivos distintos. En el documento también se pone de relieve que las características institucionales que hacen posible este tipo de reforma en España existen al mismo tiempo en la mayoría de los países desarrollados con sistemas de pensiones tipo Bismarckiano. Y por lo tanto, creemos que las lecciones aprendidas en este documento para el caso español podrían ser de utilidad para otros paísesAging is an unstoppable process and it remains a major challenge for the sustainability of the PAYG pension system in most developed countries, including in Spain. Many countries need to introduce reforms of their pension systems in order to control their expenditure, and in some cases this has already begun. However, there are other sorts of changes to certain parameters that are perceived as secondary, e.g. the different path of minimum and maximum pensions, and the upper and lower caps on contributions. This has signifi cant implications for the distributive structure of the social security system that cannot be readily perceived by the population. That is why some economists in Spain refer to it as the “Silent Reform”. The aim of this paper is to analyse the consequences this type of reform would have in Spainindeed, it is the fi rst paper to actually quantify and evaluate the potential impact it would have on the country. We have used an accounting model with heterogeneous agents and overlapping generations in order to project pension expenditures up until 2070. The results show that this kind of reform could potentially contain future expenditure and could also change the nature of the pension system from a contributory or Bismarckian-type system into an assistential or Beveridgean-type one. This change could have signifi cant consequences as both systems have different objectives. The paper also shows that the institutional characteristics that make this kind of reform in Spain feasible are also present in most developed countries with Bismarckian pension systems. Therefore, we believe that the lessons learned in this paper on this kind of reform could well prove useful to other countrie

From Bismarck to Beveridge: the other pension reform in Spain

Ageing is the major challenge for the PAYG pension systems in developed countries. Most of them are undergoing reforms in order to adapt to the new demographic reality. The package of reforms implemented includes increasing the retirement age, reducing the replacement rate, or introducing a sustainability factor linking pension to life expectancy. The aim of this paper is to analyse the potential consequences of a different type of reform that is at a very incipient stage in Spain but that could have a significant impact if it were fully implemented. This reform, called ‘silent reform’ because it is imperceptible to citizens in its early stages, basically consists in increasing maximum pensions in line with inflation instead of wage or productivity growth. This policy is reducing the replacement rate only for high earning workers and increasing the redistributive component of the system. This paper is the first to quantify and evaluate the potential consequences of this type of reform in Spain. We have used an accounting model with heterogeneous agents and overlapping generations in order to project pension expenditure for the next six decades. The results show that this type of reform could potentially contain future expenditure but at the cost of changing the nature of the pension system from a contributory or Bismarckian-type system into a pure redistributive pension system or Beveridgean-type one

Genetic and Phenotypic Characterization of the Etiological Agent of Canine Orchiepididymitis Smooth Brucella sp. BCCN84.3

Members of the genus Brucella cluster in two phylogenetic groups: classical and non-classical species. The former group is composed of Brucella species that cause disease in mammals, including humans. A Brucella species, labeled as Brucella sp. BCCN84.3, was isolated from the testes of a Saint Bernard dog suffering orchiepididymitis, in Costa Rica. Following standard microbiological methods, the bacterium was first defined as "Brucella melitensis biovar 2." Further molecular typing, identified the strain as an atypical "Brucella suis." Distinctive Brucella sp. BCCN84.3 markers, absent in other Brucella species and strains, were revealed by fatty acid methyl ester analysis, high resolution melting PCR and omp25 and omp2a/omp2b gene diversity. Analysis of multiple loci variable number of tandem repeats and whole genome sequencing demonstrated that this isolate was different from the currently described Brucella species. The smooth Brucella sp. BCCN84.3 clusters together with the classical Brucella Glade and displays all the genes required for virulence. Brucella sp. BCCN84.3 is a species nova taxonomical entity displaying pathogenicity; therefore, relevant for differential diagnoses in the context of brucellosis. Considering the debate on the Brucella species concept, there is a need to describe the extant taxonomical entities of these pathogens in order to understand the dispersion and evolution

The evolution of the ventilatory ratio is a prognostic factor in mechanically ventilated COVID-19 ARDS patients

Background: Mortality due to COVID-19 is high, especially in patients requiring mechanical ventilation. The purpose of the study is to investigate associations between mortality and variables measured during the first three days of mechanical ventilation in patients with COVID-19 intubated at ICU admission. Methods: Multicenter, observational, cohort study includes consecutive patients with COVID-19 admitted to 44 Spanish ICUs between February 25 and July 31, 2020, who required intubation at ICU admission and mechanical ventilation for more than three days. We collected demographic and clinical data prior to admission; information about clinical evolution at days 1 and 3 of mechanical ventilation; and outcomes. Results: Of the 2,095 patients with COVID-19 admitted to the ICU, 1,118 (53.3%) were intubated at day 1 and remained under mechanical ventilation at day three. From days 1 to 3, PaO2/FiO2 increased from 115.6 [80.0-171.2] to 180.0 [135.4-227.9] mmHg and the ventilatory ratio from 1.73 [1.33-2.25] to 1.96 [1.61-2.40]. In-hospital mortality was 38.7%. A higher increase between ICU admission and day 3 in the ventilatory ratio (OR 1.04 [CI 1.01-1.07], p = 0.030) and creatinine levels (OR 1.05 [CI 1.01-1.09], p = 0.005) and a lower increase in platelet counts (OR 0.96 [CI 0.93-1.00], p = 0.037) were independently associated with a higher risk of death. No association between mortality and the PaO2/FiO2 variation was observed (OR 0.99 [CI 0.95 to 1.02], p = 0.47). Conclusions: Higher ventilatory ratio and its increase at day 3 is associated with mortality in patients with COVID-19 receiving mechanical ventilation at ICU admission. No association was found in the PaO2/FiO2 variation

Clonal chromosomal mosaicism and loss of chromosome Y in elderly men increase vulnerability for SARS-CoV-2

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19) had an estimated overall case fatality ratio of 1.38% (pre-vaccination), being 53% higher in males and increasing exponentially with age. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, we found 133 cases (1.42%) with detectable clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations (mCA) and 226 males (5.08%) with acquired loss of chromosome Y (LOY). Individuals with clonal mosaic events (mCA and/or LOY) showed a 54% increase in the risk of COVID-19 lethality. LOY is associated with transcriptomic biomarkers of immune dysfunction, pro-coagulation activity and cardiovascular risk. Interferon-induced genes involved in the initial immune response to SARS-CoV-2 are also down-regulated in LOY. Thus, mCA and LOY underlie at least part of the sex-biased severity and mortality of COVID-19 in aging patients. Given its potential therapeutic and prognostic relevance, evaluation of clonal mosaicism should be implemented as biomarker of COVID-19 severity in elderly people. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, individuals with clonal mosaic events (clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations and/or loss of chromosome Y) showed an increased risk of COVID-19 lethality

Precariedad, exclusión social y diversidad funcional (discapacidad): lógicas y efectos subjetivos del sufrimiento social contemporáneo (II). Innovación docente en Filosofía

El PIMCD "Precariedad, exclusión social y diversidad funcional (discapacidad): lógicas y efectos subjetivos del sufrimiento social contemporáneo (II). Innovación docente en Filosofía" se ocupa de conceptos generalmente eludidos por la tradición teórica (contando como núcleos aglutinantes los de la precariedad laboral, la exclusión social y diversidad funcional o discapacidad), cuyo análisis propicia nuevas prácticas en la enseñanza universitaria de filosofía, adoptando como meta principal el aprendizaje centrado en el estudiantado, el diseño de nuevas herramientas de enseñanza y el fomento de una universidad inclusiva. El proyecto cuenta con 26 docentes de la UCM y otros 28 docentes de otras 17 universidades españolas (UV, UNED, UGR, UNIZAR, UAH, UC3M, UCA, UNIOVI, ULL, EHU/UPV, UA, UAM, Deusto, IFS/CSIC, UCJC, URJC y Univ. Pontificia de Comillas), que permitirán dotar a las actividades programadas de un alcance idóneo para consolidar la adquisición de competencias argumentativas y dialécticas por parte de lxs estudiantes implicados en el marco de los seminarios previstos. Se integrarán en el PIMCD, aparte de PDI, al menos 26 estudiantes de máster y doctorado de la Facultad de Filosofía, a lxs que acompañarán durante el desarrollo del PIMCD 4 Alumni de la Facultad de Filosofía de la UCM, actualmente investigadores post-doc y profesorxs de IES, cuya experiencia será beneficiosa para su introducción en la investigación. Asimismo, el equipo cuenta con el apoyo de varixs profesorxs asociadxs, que en algunos casos son también profesores de IES. Varixs docentes externos a la UCM participantes en el PIMCD poseen una dilatada experiencia en la coordinación de proyectos de innovación de otras universidades, lo que redundará en beneficio de las actividades a desarrollar. La coordinadora y otrxs miembros del PIMCD pertenecen a la Red de Innovación Docente en Filosofia (RIEF), puesta en marcha desde la Universitat de València (http://rief.blogs.uv.es/encuentros-de-la-rief/), a la que mantendremos informada de las actividades realizadas en el proyecto. Asimismo, lxs 6 miembros del PAS permitirán difundir debidamente las actividades realizadas en el PIMCD entre lxs estudiantes Erasmus IN del curso 2019/20 en la Facultad de Filosofía, de la misma manera que orientar en las tareas de maquetación y edición que puedan ser necesarias de cara a la publicación de lxs resultados del PIMCD y en las tareas de pesquisa bibliográfica necesarias para el desarrollo de los objetivos propuestos. Han manifestado su interés en los resultados derivados del PIMCD editoriales especializadas en la difusión de investigaciones predoctorales como Ápeiron y CTK E-Books

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon

The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.Peer reviewe