Assessing the changing flowering date of the common lilac in North America: a random coefficient model approach

A data set consisting of Volunteered geographical information (VGI) and data provided by expert researchers monitoring the first bloom dates of lilacs from 1956 to 2003 is used to investigate changes in the onset of the North American spring. It is argued that care must be taken when analysing data of this kind, with particular focus on the issues of lack of experimental design, and Simpson’s paradox. Approaches used to overcome this issue make use of random coefficient modelling, and bootstrapping approaches. Once the suggested methods have been employed, a gradual advance in the onset of spring is suggested by the results of the analysis. A key lesson learned is that the appropriateness of the model calibration technique used given the process of data collection needs careful consideration

Probabilistic latent semantic analysis as a potential method for integrating spatial data concepts

In this paper we explore the use of Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (PLSA) as a method for quantifying semantic differences between land cover classes. The results are promising, revealing ‘hidden’ or not easily discernible data concepts. PLSA provides a ‘bottom up’ approach to interoperability problems for users in the face of ‘top down’ solutions provided by formal ontologies. We note the potential for a meta-problem of how to interpret the concepts and the need for further research to reconcile the top-down and bottom-up approaches

An evacuation simulation model of pedestrian flow using Bayesian Nash equilibrium and a Multi-Agent System

The shortage of experimental data for individual behaviours has hampered systematic research on pedestrian behaviours and the refined development of evidence informed rules for pedestrian movement in simulation models. This research proposes an evacuation simulation model of pedestrian flow based on Bayesian Nash Equilibrium (BNE) and Multi-Agent System (MAS). In this paper, BNE was used to augment the logics of pedestrian decision-making processes in an evacuation MAS simulation and to improve evacuating agents’ movement and behaviours. A detailed introduction of the construction process and implementation details for the initial model as well as the visualization of experiment results are provided in this paper. Limitations and several potential future research directions are also identified

Spatially Varying Coefficient Regression with GAM Gaussian Process splines: GAM(e)-on

This paper describes initial work exploring GAM Gaussian Process (GP) splines parameterised by observation location, as a geographical varying coefficient model. Similar to GWR, this approach accommodates process spatial heterogeneity and generates spatially distributed, local coefficient estimates. These can be mapped to indicate the nature of the heterogeneity. The paper investigates the effect of the smoothing parameters used in the splines and how they alter the nature of the modelled heterogeneity. It optimises these in the GAM GP and the tuned model has subtle but important differences with the initial model. This has impacts on the nature of the process understanding (inference) that can be extracted from the model. This in turn suggest the need examine the underlying semantics of the resultant models in relation to the scale of process suggested by the smoothing parameters. A number of areas of further work are identified

Multiscale Spatially and Temporally Varying Coefficient Modelling Using a Geographic and Temporal Gaussian Process GAM (GTGP-GAM) (Short Paper)

The paper develops a novel approach to spatially and temporally varying coefficient (STVC) modelling, using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) with Gaussian Process (GP) splines parameterised with location and time variables - a Geographic and Temporal Gaussian Process GAM (GTGP-GAM). This was applied to a Mongolian livestock case study and different forms of GTGP splines were evaluated in which space and time were combined or treated separately. A single 3-D spline with rescaled temporal and spatial attributes resulted in the best model under an assumption that for spatial and temporal processes interact a case studies with a sufficiently large spatial extent is needed. A fully tuned model was then created and the spline smoothing parameters were shown to indicate the degree of variation in covariate spatio-temporal interactions with the target variable

A spatial analysis of variations in health access: linking geography, socio-economic status and access perceptions

Background: This paper analyses the relationship between public perceptions of access to general practitioners (GPs) surgeries and hospitals against health status, car ownership and geographic distance. In so doing it explores the different dimensions associated with facility access and accessibility. Methods: Data on difficulties experienced in accessing health services, respondent health status and car ownership were collected through an attitudes survey. Road distances to the nearest service were calculated for each respondent using a GIS. Difficulty was related to geographic distance, health status and car ownership using logistic generalized linear models. A Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) was used to explore the spatial non-stationarity in the results. Results: Respondent long term illness, reported bad health and non-car ownership were found to be significant predictors of difficulty in accessing GPs and hospitals. Geographic distance was not a significant predictor of difficulty in accessing hospitals but was for GPs. GWR identified the spatial (local) variation in these global relationships indicating locations where the predictive strength of the independent variables was higher or lower than the global trend. The impacts of bad health and non-car ownership on the difficulties experienced in accessing health services varied spatially across the study area, whilst the impacts of geographic distance did not. Conclusions: Difficulty in accessing different health facilities was found to be significantly related to health status and car ownership, whilst the impact of geographic distance depends on the service in question. GWR showed how these relationships were varied across the study area. This study demonstrates that the notion of access is a multi-dimensional concept, whose composition varies with location, according to the facility being considered and the health and socio-economic status of the individual concerned

Using genetic algorithms to optimise current and future health planning - the example of ambulance locations

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Ambulance response time is a crucial factor in patient survival. The number of emergency cases (EMS cases) requiring an ambulance is increasing due to changes in population demographics. This is decreasing ambulance response times to the emergency scene. This paper predicts EMS cases for 5-year intervals from 2020, to 2050 by correlating current EMS cases with demographic factors at the level of the census area and predicted population changes. It then applies a modified grouping genetic algorithm to compare current and future optimal locations and numbers of ambulances. Sets of potential locations were evaluated in terms of the (current and predicted) EMS case distances to those locations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Future EMS demands were predicted to increase by 2030 using the model (R²= 0.71). The optimal locations of ambulances based on future EMS cases were compared with current locations and with optimal locations modelled on current EMS case data. Optimising the location of ambulance stations locations reduced the average response times by 57 seconds. Current and predicted future EMS demand at modelled locations were calculated and compared.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The reallocation of ambulances to optimal locations improved response times and could contribute to higher survival rates from life-threatening medical events. Modelling EMS case 'demand' over census areas allows the data to be correlated to population characteristics and optimal 'supply' locations to be identified. Comparing current and future optimal scenarios allows more nuanced planning decisions to be made. This is a generic methodology that could be used to provide evidence in support of public health planning and decision making.</p

Methods to Quantify Regional Differences in Land Cover Change

This paper describes and illustrates methods for quantifying regional differences in land use/land cover changes. A series of approaches are used to analyse differences in land cover change from data held in change matrices. These are contingency tables and are commonly used in remote sensing to describe the spatial coincidence of land cover recorded over two time periods. Comparative analyses of regional change are developed using odds ratios to analyse data in two regions. These approaches are extended using generalised linear models to analyse data for three or more regions. A generalised Poisson regression model is used to generate a comparative index of change based on differences in change likelihoods. Mosaic plots are used to provide a visual representation of statistically surprising land use losses and gains. The methods are explored using a hypothetical but tractable dataset and then applied to a national case study of coastal land use changes over 50 years conducted for the National Trust. The suitability of the different approaches to different types of problem and the potential for their application to land cover accuracy measures are briefly discussed

Investigating spatial error structures in continuous raster data

The objective of this study is to investigate spatial structures of error in the assessment of continuous raster data. The use of conventional diagnostics of error often overlooks the possible spatial variation in error because such diagnostics report only average error or deviation between predicted and reference values. In this respect, this work uses a moving window (kernel) approach to generate geographically weighted (GW) versions of the mean signed deviation, the mean absolute error and the root mean squared error and to quantify their spatial variations. Such approach computes local error diagnostics from data weighted by its distance to the centre of a moving kernel and allows to map spatial surfaces of each type of error. In addition, a GW correlation analysis between predicted and reference values provides an alternative view of local error. These diagnostics are applied to two earth observation case studies. The results reveal important spatial structures of error and unusual clusters of error can be identified through Monte Carlo permutation tests. The first case study demonstrates the use of GW diagnostics to fractional impervious surface area datasets generated by four different models for the Jakarta metropolitan area, Indonesia. The GW diagnostics reveal where the models perform differently and similarly, and found areas of under-prediction in the urban core, with larger errors in peri-urban areas. The second case study uses the GW diagnostics to four remotely sensed aboveground biomass datasets for the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The mapping of GW diagnostics provides a means to compare the accuracy of these four continuous raster datasets locally. The discussion considers the relative nature of diagnostics of error, determining moving window size and issues around the interpretation of different error diagnostic measures. Investigating spatial structures of error hidden in conventional diagnostics of error provides informative descriptions of error in continuous raster data