How certain is ‘certain’?: exploring how the English-language media reported the use of calibrated language in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report

This article presents findings from an analysis of English-language media reports following the publication of the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report in September 2013. Focusing on the way they reported the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s use of ‘calibrated’ language, we find that of 1906 articles relating to the issuing of the report only 272 articles (14.27%) convey the use of a deliberate and systematic verbal scale. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s carefully calibrated language was rarely discussed or explicated, but in some instances scientists, political actors or journalists would attempt to contextualise or elaborate on the reported findings by using analogies to other scientific principles or examples of taking action despite uncertainty. We consider those analogies in terms of their efficacy in communicating (un)certainty

Elimination of onchocerciasis in Ecuador: findings of post-treatment surveillance.

BACKGROUND: The Esmeraldas focus of onchocerciasis in Ecuador expanded geographically during the 1980s and was associated with severe ocular and skin disease. Mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin started in 1991, initially once but later twice a year, in the principle endemic focus followed by all satellite foci. Treatment was stopped in 2009 when entomological assessments determined that transmission of Onchocerca volvulus had been interrupted. METHODS: Three years after the cessation of ivermectin treatment in 2012, as defined by the WHO guidelines for onchocerciasis elimination, blackfly collections were done in four sentinel sites in former hyperendemic areas. The presence of infective larvae in local vectors, Simulium exiguum and Simulum quadrivittatum, was assessed by detection of O. volvulus DNA by PCR. Additional flies captured in four extra-sentinel sites located in former hyper- and mesoendemic dispersed isolated areas were also assessed. RESULTS: The results from 68,310 captured blackflies, 40,114 from four sentinel villages in the previously hyperendemic areas (Corriente Grande, El Tigre, San Miguel on Río Cayapas and Naranjal on Río Canandé) and 28,197 from extra-sentinel locations, were all negative for the presence of O. volvulus. These extra-sentinel sites (Hualpí on Río Hoja Blanca, Capulí on Río Onzole, La Ceiba on Río Tululví and Medianía on Río Verde) were included to provide additional evidence of the impact of MDA on the transmission of O. volvulus in isolated endemic areas. CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate that transmission of O. volvulus has been stopped in all endemic areas in Ecuador, including all satellite foci outside the main focus. These findings indicate that a strategy of ivermectin distribution twice a year to over 85% of the treatment-eligible population was effective in eliminating the infection from Ecuador in a focus with a highly competent primary vector, S. exiguum, and where the infection rates were equal to or greater than observed in many onchocerciasis foci in Africa

SCAMP:standardised, concentrated, additional macronutrients, parenteral nutrition in very preterm infants: a phase IV randomised, controlled exploratory study of macronutrient intake, growth and other aspects of neonatal care

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Infants born <29 weeks gestation are at high risk of neurocognitive disability. Early postnatal growth failure, particularly head growth, is an important and potentially reversible risk factor for impaired neurodevelopmental outcome. Inadequate nutrition is a major factor in this postnatal growth failure, optimal protein and calorie (macronutrient) intakes are rarely achieved, especially in the first week. Infants <29 weeks are dependent on parenteral nutrition for the bulk of their nutrient needs for the first 2-3 weeks of life to allow gut adaptation to milk digestion. The prescription, formulation and administration of neonatal parenteral nutrition is critical to achieving optimal protein and calorie intake but has received little scientific evaluation. Current neonatal parenteral nutrition regimens often rely on individualised prescription to manage the labile, unpredictable biochemical and metabolic control characteristic of the early neonatal period. Individualised prescription frequently fails to translate into optimal macronutrient delivery. We have previously shown that a standardised, concentrated neonatal parenteral nutrition regimen can optimise macronutrient intake.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We propose a single centre, randomised controlled exploratory trial of two standardised, concentrated neonatal parenteral nutrition regimens comparing a standard macronutrient content (maximum protein 2.8 g/kg/day; lipid 2.8 g/kg/day, dextrose 10%) with a higher macronutrient content (maximum protein 3.8 g/kg/day; lipid 3.8 g/kg/day, dextrose 12%) over the first 28 days of life. 150 infants 24-28 completed weeks gestation and birthweight <1200 g will be recruited. The primary outcome will be head growth velocity in the first 28 days of life. Secondary outcomes will include a) auxological data between birth and 36 weeks corrected gestational age b) actual macronutrient intake in first 28 days c) biomarkers of biochemical and metabolic tolerance d) infection biomarkers and other intravascular line complications e) incidence of major complications of prematurity including mortality f) neurodevelopmental outcome at 2 years corrected gestational age</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Current controlled trials: <a href="http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN76597892">ISRCTN76597892</a>; EudraCT Number: 2008-008899-14</p

Integrating Science and Policy Through Stakeholder-Engaged Scenarios

Scenario development for integrated analysis focuses on adopting an interdisciplinary approach covering key elements of the biophysical environment as well as changes in livelihoods, education, economics and governance both locally and internationally. Most importantly, the development of these scenarios generates a dialogue across institutions, stakeholders and sectors, with the use of common data and agreement on shared qualitative and quantitative futures. The scenarios adopted combine three alternative future climates and three socio-economic development pathways. Quantification of these issues included estimation based on published data, expert knowledge and stakeholder engagement, particularly where data are most uncertain or unknown. This chapter demonstrates this approach for coastal Bangladesh

The Soft-Collinear Bootstrap: N=4 Yang-Mills Amplitudes at Six and Seven Loops

Infrared divergences in scattering amplitudes arise when a loop momentum $\ell$ becomes collinear with a massless external momentum $p$. In gauge theories, it is known that the L-loop logarithm of a planar amplitude has much softer infrared singularities than the L-loop amplitude itself. We argue that planar amplitudes in N=4 super-Yang-Mills theory enjoy softer than expected behavior as $\ell \parallel p$ already at the level of the integrand. Moreover, we conjecture that the four-point integrand can be uniquely determined, to any loop-order, by imposing the correct soft-behavior of the logarithm together with dual conformal invariance and dihedral symmetry. We use these simple criteria to determine explicit formulae for the four-point integrand through seven-loops, finding perfect agreement with previously known results through five-loops. As an input to this calculation we enumerate all four-point dual conformally invariant (DCI) integrands through seven-loops, an analysis which is aided by several graph-theoretic theorems we prove about general DCI integrands at arbitrary loop-order. The six- and seven-loop amplitudes receive non-zero contributions from 229 and 1873 individual DCI diagrams respectively.Comment: 27 pages, 48 figures, detailed results including PDF and Mathematica files available at http://goo.gl/qIKe8 v2: minor corrections v3: figure 7 corrected, Lemma 2 remove

Association between pain intensity and depressive symptoms in community-dwelling adults: longitudinal findings from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE)

Purpose: To investigate the longitudinal associations between pain and depressive symptoms in adults. Methods: Prospective cohort study on data from 28,515 community-dwelling adults ≥ 50 years, free from depression at baseline (Wave 5), with follow-up in Wave 6 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Significant depressive symptoms were defined by a EURO-D score ≥ 4. The longitudinal association between baseline pain intensity and significant depressive symptoms at follow-up was analysed using logistic regression models; odds ratios (ORs) and confidence intervals (CI) were calculated, adjusting for socio-demographic and clinical factors, physical inactivity, loneliness, mobility and functional impairments. Results: Mean age was 65.4 years (standard deviation 9.0, range 50–99); 14,360 (50.4%) participants were women. Mean follow-up was 23.4 (standard deviation 3.4) months. At baseline, 2803 (9.8%) participants reported mild pain, 5253 (18.4%) moderate pain and 1431 (5.0%) severe pain. At follow-up, 3868 (13.6%) participants—1451 (10.3%) men and 2417 (16.8%) women—reported significant depressive symptoms. After adjustment, mild, moderate and severe baseline pain, versus no pain, were associated with an increased likelihood of significant depressive symptoms at follow-up: ORs (95% CI) were 1.20 (1.06–1.35), 1.32 (1.20–1.46) and 1.39 (1.19–1.63), respectively. These associations were more pronounced in men compared to women, and consistent in participants aged 50–64 years, those without mobility or functional impairment, and those without loneliness at baseline. Conclusion: Higher baseline pain intensity was longitudinally associated with a greater risk of significant depressive symptoms at 2-year follow-up, in community-dwelling adults without baseline depression

Instrument development, data collection, and characteristics of practices, staff, and measures in the Improving Quality of Care in Diabetes (iQuaD) Study

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Change in Composition of the Anopheles Gambiae Complex and its Possible Implications for the Transmission of Malaria and Lymphatic Filariasis in North-Eastern Tanzania.

A dramatic decline in the incidence of malaria due to Plasmodium falciparum infection in coastal East Africa has recently been reported to be paralleled (or even preceded) by an equally dramatic decline in malaria vector density, despite absence of organized vector control. As part of investigations into possible causes for the change in vector population density, the present study analysed the Anopheles gambiae s.l. sibling species composition in north-eastern Tanzania. The study was in two parts. The first compared current species complex composition in freshly caught An. gambiae s.l. complex from three villages to the composition reported from previous studies carried out 2-4 decades ago in the same villages. The second took advantage of a sample of archived dried An. gambiae s.l. complex specimens collected regularly from a fourth study village since 2005. Both fresh and archived dried specimens were identified to sibling species of the An. gambiae s.l. complex by PCR. The same specimens were moreover examined for Plasmodium falciparum and Wuchereria bancrofti infection by PCR. As in earlier studies, An. gambiae s.s., Anopheles merus and Anopheles arabiensis were identified as sibling species found in the area. However, both study parts indicated a marked change in sibling species composition over time. From being by far the most abundant in the past An. gambiae s.s. was now the most rare, whereas An. arabiensis had changed from being the most rare to the most common. P. falciparum infection was rarely detected in the examined specimens (and only in An. arabiensis) whereas W. bancrofti infection was prevalent and detected in all three sibling species. The study indicates that a major shift in An. gambiae s.l. sibling species composition has taken place in the study area in recent years. Combined with the earlier reported decline in overall malaria vector density, the study suggests that this decline has been most marked for An. gambiae s.s., and least for An. arabiensis, leading to current predominance of the latter. Due to differences in biology and vectorial capacity of the An. gambiae s.l. complex the change in sibling species composition will have important implications for the epidemiology and control of malaria and lymphatic filariasis in the study area