The Influence of Meteorology on the Spread of Influenza: Survival Analysis of an Equine Influenza (A/H3N8) Outbreak.

This article comes with 'Supporting Information S1. Survival analysis dataset formulation examples and correlations between explanatory variables in Cox regression modelling of factors associated with time to infection in the largest cluster of the 2007 outbreak of equine influenza in Australia. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0035284.s001The influences of relative humidity and ambient temperature on the transmission of influenza A viruses have recently been established under controlled laboratory conditions. The interplay of meteorological factors during an actual influenza epidemic is less clear, and research into the contribution of wind to epidemic spread is scarce. By applying geostatistics and survival analysis to data from a large outbreak of equine influenza (A/H3N8), we quantified the association between hazard of infection and air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind velocity, whilst controlling for premises-level covariates. The pattern of disease spread in space and time was described using extraction mapping and instantaneous hazard curves. Meteorological conditions at each premises location were estimated by kriging daily meteorological data and analysed as time-lagged time-varying predictors using generalised Cox regression. Meteorological covariates time-lagged by three days were strongly associated with hazard of influenza infection, corresponding closely with the incubation period of equine influenza. Hazard of equine influenza infection was higher when relative humidity was 30 km hour−1 from the direction of nearby infected premises were associated with increased hazard of infection. Through combining detailed influenza outbreak and meteorological data, we provide empirical evidence for the underlying environmental mechanisms that influenced the local spread of an outbreak of influenza A. Our analysis supports, and extends, the findings of studies into influenza A transmission conducted under laboratory conditions. The relationships described are of direct importance for managing disease risk during influenza outbreaks in horses, and more generally, advance our understanding of the transmission of influenza A viruses under field conditions.jointly funded by the Australian Biosecurity Cooperative Research Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases and the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporatio

Pairwise comparison matrices and the error-free property of the decision maker

Pairwise comparison is a popular assessment method either for deriving criteria-weights or for evaluating alternatives according to a given criterion. In real-world applications consistency of the comparisons rarely happens: intransitivity can occur. The aim of the paper is to discuss the relationship between the consistency of the decision maker—described with the error-free property—and the consistency of the pairwise comparison matrix (PCM). The concept of error-free matrix is used to demonstrate that consistency of the PCM is not a sufficient condition of the error-free property of the decision maker. Informed and uninformed decision makers are defined. In the first stage of an assessment method a consistent or near-consistent matrix should be achieved: detecting, measuring and improving consistency are part of any procedure with both types of decision makers. In the second stage additional information are needed to reveal the decision maker’s real preferences. Interactive questioning procedures are recommended to reach that goal

Microfungi in Drinking Water: The Role of the Frog Litoria caerulea

Microfungi were recovered from all parts of a municipal water distribution system in sub-tropical Australia even though virtually no colony-forming units were recovered from the treated water as it left the treatment plant. A study was then undertaken to determine the potential sources of the microfungal population in the distribution system. Observation of frogs (Litoria caerulea) using the internal infrastructure of a reservoir as diurnal sleeping places, together with observation of visible microfungal growth on their faecal pellets, led to an investigation of the possible involvement of this animal. Old faecal pellets were collected and sporulating fungal colonies growing on their surfaces were identified. Fresh faecal pellets were collected and analysed for microfungal content, and skin swabs were analysed for yeasts. It was found that the faeces and skin of L. caerulea carried large numbers of yeasts as well as spores of various filamentous fungal genera. While there are many possible sources of microfungal contamination of municipal drinking water supplies, this study has revealed that the Australian green tree frog L. caerulea is one of the important sources of filamentous microfungi and yeasts in water storage reservoirs in sub-tropical Australia where the animal is endemic

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, vascular inflammation and insulin resistance are exacerbated by TRAIL deletion in mice

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) incorporates steatosis, non-alcoholic steato-hepatitis (NASH) and liver cirrhosis, associating with diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD). TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) is protective of CVD. We aimed to determine whether TRAIL protects against insulin resistance, NAFLD and vascular injury. Twelve-week high fat diet (HFD)-fed Trail -/- mice had increased plasma cholesterol, insulin and glucose compared to wildtype. Insulin tolerance was impaired with TRAIL-deletion, with reduced p-Akt, GLUT4 expression and glucose uptake in skeletal muscle. Hepatic triglyceride content, inflammation and fibrosis were increased with TRAIL-deletion, with elevated expression of genes regulating lipogenesis and gluconeogenesis. Moreover, Trail -/- mice exhibited reduced aortic vasorelaxation, impaired insulin signaling, and >20-fold increased mRNA expression for IL-1β, IL-6, and TNF-α. In vitro, palmitate treatment of hepatocytes increased lipid accumulation, inflammation and fibrosis, with TRAIL mRNA significantly reduced. TRAIL administration inhibited palmitate-induced hepatocyte lipid uptake. Finally, patients with NASH had significantly reduced plasma TRAIL compared to control, simple steatosis or obese individuals. These findings suggest that TRAIL protects against insulin resistance, NAFLD and vascular inflammation. Increasing TRAIL levels may be an attractive therapeutic strategy, to reduce features of diabetes, as well as liver and vascular injury, so commonly observed in individuals with NAFLD.Siân P. Cartland, Hanis H. Harith, Scott W. Genner, Lei Dang, Victoria C. Cogger, Melissa Vellozzi, Belinda A. Di Bartolo, Shane R. Thomas, Leon A. Adams, Mary M. Kavurm

Nosocomial or not? A combined epidemiological and genomic investigation to understand hospital-acquired COVID-19 infection on an elderly care ward.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has the potential to cause outbreaks in hospitals. Given the comorbid and elderly cohort of patients hospitalized, hospital-acquired COVID-19 infection is often fatal. Pathogen genome sequencing is becoming increasingly important in infection prevention and control (IPC). AIM: To inform the understanding of in-hospital SARS-CoV-2 transmission in order to improve IPC practices and to inform the future development of virological testing for IPC. METHODS: Patients detected COVID-19 positive by polymerase chain reaction on Ward A in April and May 2020 were included with contact tracing to identify other potential cases. Genome sequencing was undertaken for a subgroup of cases. Epidemiological, genomic, and cluster analyses were performed to describe the epidemiology and to identify factors contributing to the outbreak. FINDINGS: Fourteen cases were identified on Ward A. Contact tracing identified 16 further patient cases; in addition, eight healthcare workers (HCWs) were identified as being COVID-19 positive through a round of asymptomatic testing. Genome sequencing of 16 of these cases identified viral genomes differing by two single nucleotide polymorphisms or fewer, with further cluster analysis identifying two groups of infection (a five-person group and a six-person group). CONCLUSION: Despite the temporal relationship of cases, genome sequencing identified that not all cases shared transmission events. However, 11 samples were found to be closely related and these likely represented in-hospital transmission. This included three HCWs, thereby confirming transmission between patients and HCWs.S.R. and A.B. are part-funded from Research England’s Expanding Excellence in England (E3) Fund. The sequencing costs were funded by the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium which is supported by funding from the Medical Research Council (MRC) part of UK Research & Innovation (UKRI), the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) and Genome Research Limited, operating as the Wellcome Sanger Institute. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Midday auroral breakup events and related energy and momentum transfer from the magnetosheath

Combined observations by meridian-scanning photometers, all-sky auroral TV camera and the EISCAT radar permitted a detailed analysis of the temporal and spatial development of the midday auroral breakup phenomenon and the related ionospheric ion flow pattern within the 71°–75° invariant latitude radar field of view. The radar data revealed dominating northward and westward ion drifts, of magnitudes close to the corresponding velocities of the discrete, transient auroral forms, during the two different events reported here, characterized by IMF |BY/BZ| 2, respectively (IMF BZ between −8 and −3 nT and BY > 0). The spatial scales of the discrete optical events were ∼50 km in latitude by ∼500 km in longitude, and their lifetimes were less than 10 min. Electric potential enhancements with peak values in the 30–50 kV range are inferred along the discrete arc in the IMF |BY/BZ| 2 case. Joule heat dissipation rates in the maximum phase of the discrete structures of ∼ 100 ergs cm−2 s−1 (0.1 W m−2) are estimated from the photometer intensities and the ion drift data. These observations combined with the additional characteristics of the events, documented here and in several recent studies (i.e., their quasi-periodic nature, their motion pattern relative to the persistent cusp or cleft auroral arc, the strong relationship with the interplanetary magnetic field and the associated ion drift/E field events and ground magnetic signatures), are considered to be strong evidence in favour of a transient, intermittent reconnection process at the dayside magnetopause and associated energy and momentum transfer to the ionosphere in the polar cusp and cleft regions. The filamentary spatial structure and the spectral characteristics of the optical signature indicate associated localized ˜1-kV potential drops between the magnetopause and the ionosphere during the most intense auroral events. The duration of the events compares well with the predicted characteristic times of momentum transfer to the ionosphere associated with the flux transfer event-related current tubes. It is suggested that, after this 2–10 min interval, the sheath particles can no longer reach the ionosphere down the open flux tube, due to the subsequent super-Alfvénic flow along the magnetopause, conductivities are lower and much less momentum is extracted from the solar wind by the ionosphere. The recurrence time (3–15 min) and the local time distribution (∼0900–1500 MLT) of the dayside auroral breakup events, combined with the above information, indicate the important roles of transient magnetopause reconnection and the polar cusp and cleft regions in the transfer of momentum and energy between the solar wind and the magnetosphere

The Influence of Meteorology on the Spread of Influenza: Survival Analysis of an Equine Influenza (A/H3N8) Outbreak

The influences of relative humidity and ambient temperature on the transmission of influenza A viruses have recently been established under controlled laboratory conditions. The interplay of meteorological factors during an actual influenza epidemic is less clear, and research into the contribution of wind to epidemic spread is scarce. By applying geostatistics and survival analysis to data from a large outbreak of equine influenza (A/H3N8), we quantified the association between hazard of infection and air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind velocity, whilst controlling for premises-level covariates. The pattern of disease spread in space and time was described using extraction mapping and instantaneous hazard curves. Meteorological conditions at each premises location were estimated by kriging daily meteorological data and analysed as time-lagged time-varying predictors using generalised Cox regression. Meteorological covariates time-lagged by three days were strongly associated with hazard of influenza infection, corresponding closely with the incubation period of equine influenza. Hazard of equine influenza infection was higher when relative humidity was <60% and lowest on days when daily maximum air temperature was 20–25°C. Wind speeds >30 km hour−1 from the direction of nearby infected premises were associated with increased hazard of infection. Through combining detailed influenza outbreak and meteorological data, we provide empirical evidence for the underlying environmental mechanisms that influenced the local spread of an outbreak of influenza A. Our analysis supports, and extends, the findings of studies into influenza A transmission conducted under laboratory conditions. The relationships described are of direct importance for managing disease risk during influenza outbreaks in horses, and more generally, advance our understanding of the transmission of influenza A viruses under field conditions