Seller-buyer supply chain: a game theory framework

We present a game theoretical framework to study competition and collaboration scenarios in seller-buyer supply chains, representing a manufacturer that wholesales a product to a retailer who, in turn, retails to the final consumer. We study cooperative and non-cooperative scenarios, by considering in the first case a Stackelberg game under both the situations where one of the players, either the buyer or the seller, plays the leading role by taking the initiative and forcing the strategy of the other player, the follower. In the cooperative game, we analyse scenarios where the pro t of both players are increased when applying joint cooperative strategies. We also compute the Nash equilibria. This is undergoing work.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts.

PublishedJournal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tBACKGROUND: With more than a million spectators expected to travel among 12 different cities in Brazil during the football World Cup, June 12-July 13, 2014, the risk of the mosquito-transmitted disease dengue fever is a concern. We addressed the potential for a dengue epidemic during the tournament, using a probabilistic forecast of dengue risk for the 553 microregions of Brazil, with risk level warnings for the 12 cities where matches will be played. METHODS: We obtained real-time seasonal climate forecasts from several international sources (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts [ECMWF], Met Office, Meteo-France and Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos [CPTEC]) and the observed dengue epidemiological situation in Brazil at the forecast issue date as provided by the Ministry of Health. Using this information we devised a spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework that enabled dengue warnings to be made 3 months ahead. By assessing the past performance of the forecasting system using observed dengue incidence rates for June, 2000-2013, we identified optimum trigger alert thresholds for scenarios of medium-risk and high-risk of dengue. FINDINGS: Our forecasts for June, 2014, showed that dengue risk was likely to be low in the host cities Brasília, Cuiabá, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, and São Paulo. The risk was medium in Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, and Manaus. High-risk alerts were triggered for the northeastern cities of Recife (p(high)=19%), Fortaleza (p(high)=46%), and Natal (p(high)=48%). For these high-risk areas, particularly Natal, the forecasting system did well for previous years (in June, 2000-13). INTERPRETATION: This timely dengue early warning permits the Ministry of Health and local authorities to implement appropriate, city-specific mitigation and control actions ahead of the World Cup. FUNDING: European Commission's Seventh Framework Research Programme projects DENFREE, EUPORIAS, and SPECS; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro.DENFREE projectEUPORIAS projectSPECS projectEuropean Commission's Seventh Framework Research ProgrammeConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeir

Dengue epidemic early warning system for Brazil

Copyright © 2015 UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction)The problem Brazil has reported more cases of dengue fever than anywhere else in the world this century1. Many cities have tropical and sub-tropical climate conditions that allow the dengue mosquito to thrive during warmer, wetter and more humid months, particularly in densely populated urban areas. Dengue epidemics depend on mosquito abundance, virus circulation and human susceptibility. In order to prepare for dengue epidemics, early warning systems, which take into account multiple dengue risk factors, are required to implement timely control measures. Seasonal climate forecasts provide an opportunity to anticipate dengue epidemics several months in advance ...European Commission’s Seventh Framework Research Programme project DENFREEEuropean Commission’s Seventh Framework Research Programme project EUPORIASEuropean Commission’s Seventh Framework Research Programme project SPECSConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e TecnológicoFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ

Tandem Thio-Michael Addition/Remote Lactone Activation of 5-Hydroxymethylfurfural-Derived δ-Lactone-Fused Cyclopentenones

Funding Information: We thank the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (SFRH/BD/120829/2016, SFRH/BD/148211/2019, UIDB/04138/2020, UIDP/04138/2020, PTDC/QUI‐QOR/32008/2017 and GHTM‐UID/04413/2020). The project leading to this application has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 951996. J. A. S. C. thanks the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) for Scientific Employment Stimulus 2020/02383/CEECIND. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors. ChemSusChem published by Wiley-VCH GmbH.The creation of structurally diverse chemical entities from fairly simple biorefinery products remains a challenge. In this work 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (HMF) was identified as a key synthon for preparing highly complex cyclopentenones (CP) via tandem 1,4-addition/elimination/remote lactone activation to external O- and N-nucleophiles in δ-lactone-fused-CPs hotspots. This scaffold was also reactive enough to be incorporated into model cysteine-peptides in low concentrations, paving the way to a potential translation generating complexity in the synthesis of small peptides. The new enones also exhibited activity against intraerythrocytic Plasmodium falciparum (IC50=1.32 μm).publishersversionpublishe

Galois theory and commutators

We prove that the relative commutator with respect to a subvariety of a variety of Omega-groups introduced by the first author can be described in terms of categorical Galois theory. This extends the known correspondence between the Froehlich-Lue and the Janelidze-Kelly notions of central extension. As an example outside the context of Omega-groups we study the reflection of the category of loops to the category of groups where we obtain an interpretation of the associator as a relative commutator.Comment: 14 page

The Role of Rosmarinic Acid on the Bioproduction of Gold Nanoparticles as Part of a Photothermal Approach for Breast Cancer Treatment.

Breast cancer is a high-burden malignancy for society, whose impact boosts a continuous search for novel diagnostic and therapeutic tools. Among the recent therapeutic approaches, photothermal therapy (PTT), which causes tumor cell death by hyperthermia after being irradiated with a light source, represents a high-potential strategy. Furthermore, the effectiveness of PTT can be improved by combining near infrared (NIR) irradiation with gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) as photothermal enhancers. Herein, an alternative synthetic method using rosmarinic acid (RA) for synthesizing AuNPs is reported. The RA concentration was varied and its impact on the AuNPs physicochemical and optical features was assessed. Results showed that RA concentration plays an active role on AuNPs features, allowing the optimization of mean size and maximum absorbance peak. Moreover, the synthetic method explored here allowed us to obtain negatively charged AuNPs with sizes favoring the local particle accumulation at tumor site and maximum absorbance peaks within the NIR region. In addition, AuNPs were safe both in vitro and in vivo. In conclusion, the synthesized AuNPs present favorable properties to be applied as part of a PTT system combining AuNPs with a NIR laser for the treatment of breast cancer

A coleção herpetológica das Faculdades Integradas do Tapajós/Faculdade da Amazônia, Santarém, Pará, Brasil: 1 - Répteis

It shows the collection of the herpetological collection of the Tapajos Integrated Colleges/College Amazon, with complete list of species of reptiles and amphibians deposited in the collection. The herpetological collection currently houses 3.349 specimens, has scientific and didactic collection. The entire collection is properly tumbled and packaged as minimum requirements for collections. He represents an excellent database for the study of amazon herpetofauna. The cities with the most representative specimens of deposits in the collection are Santarem and Belterra, Pará, Brazil; most copies come from scientific expeditions and be can considered a regional dynamic collection because it is to the community. However, greater investments are needed structural, for the maintenance and growth of, the collection so that it continues in of continue with the performance of their duties.Apresenta-se o acervo da coleção herpetológica das Faculdades Integradas do Tapajós/Faculdade da Amazônia, com lista completa das espécies de répteis depositados na coleção. A coleção herpetológica abriga atualmente 3.349 espécimes, possui coleção científica e didática. Todo o acervo está devidamente tombado e acondicionado conforme exigências mínimas para coleções. E representa uma excelente base de dados para o estudo da herpetofauna amazônica. As cidades com maior representatividade de depósitos de espécimes na coleção são Santarém e Belterra, Pará, Brasil. Grande parte dos exemplares é oriunda de expedições científicas e pode ser considerada uma coleção regional dinâmica, pois se encontra à disposição da comunidade. Entretanto, são necessários maiores investimentos de ordem estrutural, para a manutenção e crescimento do acervo, para que este continue no desempenho de suas funções

Forecasting annual maximum water level for the Negro river at Manaus using dynamical seasonal predictions

Early and skilful prediction of the Negro River maximum water levels at Manaus is critical for effective mitigation measures to safeguard lives and livelihoods. Using dynamical seasonal prediction hindcasts, from six prediction centres, we investigate extending the lead time of previously developed statistical models, which issue forecasts in March for Manaus. The original statistical forecast models used observed rainfall as the major predictor. We advance the capability to issue skilful forecasts earlier, in February. We develop ensemble forecasts by combining predictor data from observations and seasonal hindcasts. We compare those forecasts against the original statistical forecast models and forecasts using the observed climatology or persistence of predictors. The ensemble-mean forecasts, issued in February, using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) hindcast input, perform similarly as the original forecasts issued in March and gain one month of lead time. The ECMWF-based ensemble forecasts skilfully predict the likelihood of water levels exceeding the severe flood level of 29 m. Forecast performance reduces and ensemble spread increases with increasing lead time from February to January. We conclude that forecasts for Manaus maximum water levels can be produced using combined input from observations and real-time ECMWF forecasts

Forecasting annual maximum water level for the Negro River at Manaus using dynamical seasonal predictions

Early and skilful prediction of the Negro River maximum water levels at Manaus is critical for effective mitigation measures to safeguard lives and livelihoods. Using dynamical seasonal prediction hindcasts, from six prediction centres, we investigate extending the lead time of previously developed statistical models, which issue forecasts in March for Manaus. The original statistical forecast models used observed rainfall as the major predictor. We advance the capability to issue skilful forecasts earlier, in February. We develop ensemble forecasts by combining predictor data from observations and seasonal hindcasts. We compare those forecasts against the original statistical forecast models and forecasts using the observed climatology or persistence of predictors. The ensemble-mean forecasts, issued in February, using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) hindcast input, perform similarly as the original forecasts issued in March and gain one month of lead time. The ECMWF-based ensemble forecasts skilfully predict the likelihood of water levels exceeding the severe flood level of 29 m. Forecast performance reduces and ensemble spread increases with increasing lead time from February to January. We conclude that forecasts for Manaus maximum water levels can be produced using combined input from observations and real-time ECMWF forecasts

Spatio-temporal modelling of climate-sensitive disease risk: Towards an early warning system for dengue in Brazil

NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Computers and Geosciences. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Computers and Geosciences, Vol. 37, Issue 3, (2011), DOI: 10.1016/j.cageo.2010.01.008This paper considers the potential for using seasonal climate forecasts in developing an early warning system for dengue fever epidemics in Brazil. In the first instance, a generalised linear model (GLM) is used to select climate and other covariates which are both readily available and prove significant in prediction of confirmed monthly dengue cases based on data collected across the whole of Brazil for the period January 2001 to December 2008 at the microregion level (typically consisting of one large city and several smaller municipalities). The covariates explored include temperature and precipitation data on a 2.5°×2.5°2.5°×2.5° longitude–latitude grid with time lags relevant to dengue transmission, an El Niño Southern Oscillation index and other relevant socio-economic and environmental variables. A negative binomial model formulation is adopted in this model selection to allow for extra-Poisson variation (overdispersion) in the observed dengue counts caused by unknown/unobserved confounding factors and possible correlations in these effects in both time and space. Subsequently, the selected global model is refined in the context of the South East region of Brazil, where dengue predominates, by reverting to a Poisson framework and explicitly modelling the overdispersion through a combination of unstructured and spatio-temporal structured random effects. The resulting spatio-temporal hierarchical model (or GLMM—generalised linear mixed model) is implemented via a Bayesian framework using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Dengue predictions are found to be enhanced both spatially and temporally when using the GLMM and the Bayesian framework allows posterior predictive distributions for dengue cases to be derived, which can be useful for developing a dengue alert system. Using this model, we conclude that seasonal climate forecasts could have potential value in helping to predict dengue incidence months in advance of an epidemic in South East Brazil