Modeling Transmission Dynamics and Control of Vector-Borne Neglected Tropical Diseases

Neglected tropical diseases affect more than one billion people worldwide. The populations most impacted by such diseases are typically the most resource-limited. Mathematical modeling of disease transmission and cost-effectiveness analyses can play a central role in maximizing the utility of limited resources for neglected tropical diseases. We review the contributions that mathematical modeling has made to optimizing intervention strategies of vector-borne neglected diseases. We propose directions forward in the modeling of these diseases, including integrating new knowledge of vector and pathogen ecology, incorporating evolutionary responses to interventions, and expanding the scope of sensitivity analysis in order to achieve robust results

A Simple Stochastic Model with Environmental Transmission Explains Multi-Year Periodicity in Outbreaks of Avian Flu

Avian influenza virus reveals persistent and recurrent outbreaks in North American wild waterfowl, and exhibits major outbreaks at 2–8 years intervals in duck populations. The standard susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) framework, which includes seasonal migration and reproduction, but lacks environmental transmission, is unable to reproduce the multi-periodic patterns of avian influenza epidemics. In this paper, we argue that a fully stochastic theory based on environmental transmission provides a simple, plausible explanation for the phenomenon of multi-year periodic outbreaks of avian flu. Our theory predicts complex fluctuations with a dominant period of 2 to 8 years which essentially depends on the intensity of environmental transmission. A wavelet analysis of the observed data supports this prediction. Furthermore, using master equations and van Kampen system-size expansion techniques, we provide an analytical expression for the spectrum of stochastic fluctuations, revealing how the outbreak period varies with the environmental transmission

Description of a Prospective 17DD Yellow Fever Vaccine Cohort in Recife, Brazil

From September 2005 to March 2007, 238 individuals being vaccinated for the first time with the yellow fever (YF) -17DD vaccine were enrolled in a cohort established in Recife, Brazil. A prospective study indicated that, after immunization, anti-YF immunoglobulin M (IgM) and anti-YF IgG were present in 70.6% (IgM) and 98.3% (IgG) of the vaccinated subjects. All vaccinees developed protective immunity, which was detected by the plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) with a geometric mean titer of 892. Of the 238 individuals, 86.6% had IgG antibodies to dengue virus; however, the presence of anti-dengue IgG did not interfere significantly with the development of anti-YF neutralizing antibodies. In a separate retrospective study of individuals immunized with the 17DD vaccine, the PRNT values at 5 and 10 years post-vaccination remained positive but showed a significant decrease in neutralization titer (25% with PRNT titers < 100 after 5 years and 35% after 10 years)

Regional-scale climate-variability synchrony of cholera epidemics in West Africa

BACKGROUND: The relationship between cholera and climate was explored in Africa, the continent with the most reported cases, by analyzing monthly 20-year cholera time series for five coastal adjoining West African countries: Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria. METHODS: We used wavelet analyses and derived methods because these are useful mathematical tools to provide information on the evolution of the periodic component over time and allow quantification of non-stationary associations between time series. RESULTS: The temporal variability of cholera incidence exhibits an interannual component, and a significant synchrony in cholera epidemics is highlighted at the end of the 1980's. This observed synchrony across countries, even if transient through time, is also coherent with both the local variability of rainfall and the global climate variability quantified by the Indian Oscillation Index. CONCLUSION: Results of this study suggest that large and regional scale climate variability influence both the temporal dynamics and the spatial synchrony of cholera epidemics in human populations in the Gulf of Guinea, as has been described for two other tropical regions of the world, western South America and Bangladesh

The consequences of reservoir host eradication on disease epidemiology in animal communities.

Non-native species have often been linked with introduction of novel pathogens that spill over into native communities, and the amplification of the prevalence of native parasites. In the case of introduced generalist pathogens, their disease epidemiology in the extant communities remains poorly understood. Here, Sphaerothecum destruens, a generalist fungal-like fish pathogen with bi-modal transmission (direct and environmental) was used to characterise the biological drivers responsible for disease emergence in temperate fish communities. A range of biotic factors relating to both the pathogen and the surrounding host communities were used in a novel susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to test how these factors affected disease epidemiology. These included: (i) pathogen prevalence in an introduced reservoir host (Pseudorasbora parva); (ii) the impact of reservoir host eradication and its timing and (iii) the density of potential hosts in surrounding communities and their connectedness. These were modelled across 23 combinations and indicated that the spill-over of pathogen propagules via environmental transmission resulted in rapid establishment in adjacent fish communities (<1 year). Although disease dynamics were initially driven by environmental transmission in these communities, once sufficient numbers of native hosts were infected, the disease dynamics were driven by intra-species transmission. Subsequent eradication of the introduced host, irrespective of its timing (after one, two or three years), had limited impact on the long-term disease dynamics among local fish communities. These outputs reinforced the importance of rapid detection and eradication of non-native species, in particular when such species are identified as healthy reservoirs of a generalist pathogen

Development of a Low Cost Bioprocess for Endotoxin Production by Bacillus thuringiensis var israelensis Intended for Biological Control of Aedes aegypti

Aedes aegypti is the vector of Dengue disease, responsible for 20,000 deaths/year worldwide. Bacillus thuringiensis var israelensis - Bti releases selective and effective toxins (crystal proteins) against A. aegypti larvae. We present a low cost bioprocess for toxin production, accomplished by a selected Brazilian strain Bti (BR-LPB01) and employment of low cost substrates. Soybean meal and sugarcane molasses lead to high toxic effectiveness after 2L bioreactor fermentation (LD50=26ng/mL), near to the reference strain IPS82 (LD50=17.3 ng/mL). The pH ranged between 5.8 and 7.0 during the exponential growth period and between 7.0 and 8.4 during the stationary phase, with low activity. Thus, control of foam and pH 7.0 were started and proved to be crucial for high activity. It was verified that the fermentation could be discontinued after 20 hours, when the highest activity was present.<br>A dengue é transmitida pelo Aedes aegypti, doença responsável por 20.000 mortes/ano no mundo. Bacillus thuringiensis var israelensis libera toxinas seletivas e eficazes (proteínas cristal) contra larvas de A. aegypti. Propõe-se um bioprocesso de baixo custo para a produção da toxina, pelo emprego de uma cepa brasileira selecionada de Bti (BR-LPB01) e de substratos de baixo custo. Farelo de soja e melaço de cana levaram a eficácia tóxica alta após fermentação em biorreator 2L (DL50=26ng/mL), valor próximo a estirpe de referência IPS82 (DL50=17,3 ng/mL). O pH variou entre 5,8 e 7,0 durante o período de crescimento exponencial e entre 7,0 e 8,4 durante a fase estacionária, com baixa atividade larvicida. Assim, controles de espuma e de pH 7,0 foram iniciados e demonstraram serem cruciais para alta atividade. Verificou-se que a fermentação deve ser interrompida após vinte horas, quando se obtém a maior atividade