Local and Remote Controls on Arctic Mixed-Layer Evolution

In this study Lagrangian large-eddy simulation of cloudy mixed layers in evolving warm air masses in the Arctic is constrained by in situ observations from the recent PASCAL field campaign. A key novelty is that time dependence is maintained in the large-scale forcings. An iterative procedure featuring large-eddy simulation on microgrids is explored to calibrate the case setup, inspired by and making use of the typically long memory of Arctic air masses for upstream conditions. The simulated mixed-phase clouds are part of a turbulent mixed layer that is weakly coupled to the surface and is occasionally capped by a shallow humidity layer. All eight simulated mixed layers exhibit a strong time evolution across a range of time scales, including diurnal but also synoptic fingerprints. A few cases experience rapid cloud collapse, coinciding with a rapid decrease in mixed-layer depth. To gain insight, composite budget analyses are performed. In the mixed-layer interior the heat and moisture budgets are dominated by turbulent transport, radiative cooling, and precipitation. However, near the thermal inversion the large-scale vertical advection also contributes significantly, showing a distinct difference between subsidence and upsidence conditions. A bulk mass budget analysis reveals that entrainment deepening behaves almost time-constantly, as long as clouds are present. In contrast, large-scale subsidence fluctuates much more strongly and can both counteract and boost boundary-layer deepening resulting from entrainment. Strong and sudden subsidence events following prolonged deepening periods are found to cause the cloud collapses, associated with a substantial reduction in the surface downward longwave radiative flux. ©2019. The Authors

Turbulent Transport in the Gray Zone: A Large Eddy Model Intercomparison Study of the CONSTRAIN Cold Air Outbreak Case

To quantify the turbulent transport at gray zone length scales between 1 and 10 km, the Lagrangian evolution of the CONSTRAIN cold air outbreak case was simulated with seven large eddy models. The case is characterized by rather large latent and sensible heat fluxes mention the meaning of SHF in the text below and remove from abstract and a rapid deepening rate of the boundary layer. In some models the entrainment velocity exceeds 4 cm/s. A significant fraction of this growth is attributed to a strong longwave radiative cooling of the inversion layer. The evolution and the timing of the breakup of the stratocumulus cloud deck differ significantly among the models. Sensitivity experiments demonstrate that a decrease in the prescribed cloud droplet number concentration and the inclusion of ice microphysics both act to speed up the thinning of the stratocumulus by enhancing the production of precipitation. In all models the formation of mesoscale fluctuations is clearly evident in the cloud fields and also in the horizontal wind velocity. Resolved vertical fluxes remain important for scales up to 10 km. The simulation results show that the resolved vertical velocity variance gradually diminishes with a coarsening of the horizontal mesh, but the total vertical fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum are only weakly affected. This is a promising result as it demonstrates the potential use of a mesh size-dependent turbulent length scale for convective boundary layers at gray zone model resolutions

Constraints on simulated past Arctic amplification and lapse rate feedback from observations

The Arctic has warmed more rapidly than the global mean during the past few decades. The lapse rate feedback (LRF) has been identified as being a large contributor to the Arctic amplification (AA) of climate change. This particular feedback arises from the vertically non-uniform warming of the troposphere, which in the Arctic emerges as strong near-surface and muted free-tropospheric warming. Stable stratification and meridional energy transport are two characteristic processes that are evoked as causes for this vertical warming structure. Our aim is to constrain these governing processes by making use of detailed observations in combination with the large climate model ensemble of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We build on the result that CMIP6 models show a large spread in AA and Arctic LRF, which are positively correlated for the historical period of 1951–2014. Thus, we present process-oriented constraints by linking characteristics of the current climate to historical climate simulations. In particular, we compare a large consortium of present-day observations to co-located model data from subsets that show a weak and strong simulated AA and Arctic LRF in the past. Our analyses suggest that the vertical temperature structure of the Arctic boundary layer is more realistically depicted in climate models with weak (w) AA and Arctic LRF (CMIP6/w) in the past. In particular, CMIP6/w models show stronger inversions in the present climate for boreal autumn and winter and over sea ice, which is more consistent with the observations. These results are based on observations from the year-long Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in the central Arctic, long-term measurements at the Utqiaġvik site in Alaska, USA, and dropsonde temperature profiling from aircraft campaigns in the Fram Strait. In addition, the atmospheric energy transport from lower latitudes that can further mediate the warming structure in the free troposphere is more realistically represented by CMIP6/w models. In particular, CMIP6/w models systemically simulate a weaker Arctic atmospheric energy transport convergence in the present climate for boreal autumn and winter, which is more consistent with fifth generation reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). We further show a positive relationship between the magnitude of the present-day transport convergence and the strength of past AA. With respect to the Arctic LRF, we find links between the changes in transport pathways that drive vertical warming structures and local differences in the LRF. This highlights the mediating influence of advection on the Arctic LRF and motivates deeper studies to explicitly link spatial patterns of Arctic feedbacks to changes in the large-scale circulation

Atmospheric and Surface Processes, and Feedback Mechanisms Determining Arctic Amplification: A Review of First Results and Prospects of the (AC)3 Project

Mechanisms behind the phenomenon of Arctic amplification are widely discussed. To contribute to this debate, the (AC)3 project has been established in 2016. It comprises modeling and data analysis efforts as well as observational elements. The project has assembled a wealth of ground-based, airborne, ship-borne, and satellite data of physical, chemical, and meteorological properties of the Arctic atmosphere, cryosphere, and upper ocean that are available for the Arctic climate research community. Short-term changes and indications of long-term trends in Arctic climate parameters have been detected using existing and new data

Local and Remote Controls on Arctic Mixed‐Layer Evolution

In this study Lagrangian large-eddy simulation of cloudy mixed layers in evolving warm air masses in the Arctic is constrained by in situ observations from the recent PASCAL field campaign. A key novelty is that time dependence is maintained in the large-scale forcings. An iterative procedure featuring large-eddy simulation on microgrids is explored to calibrate the case setup, inspired by and making use of the typically long memory of Arctic air masses for upstream conditions. The simulated mixed-phase clouds are part of a turbulent mixed layer that is weakly coupled to the surface and is occasionally capped by a shallow humidity layer. All eight simulated mixed layers exhibit a strong time evolution across a range of time scales, including diurnal but also synoptic fingerprints. A few cases experience rapid cloud collapse, coinciding with a rapid decrease in mixed-layer depth. To gain insight, composite budget analyses are performed. In the mixed-layer interior the heat and moisture budgets are dominated by turbulent transport, radiative cooling, and precipitation. However, near the thermal inversion the large-scale vertical advection also contributes significantly, showing a distinct difference between subsidence and upsidence conditions. A bulk mass budget analysis reveals that entrainment deepening behaves almost time-constantly, as long as clouds are present. In contrast, large-scale subsidence fluctuates much more strongly and can both counteract and boost boundary-layer deepening resulting from entrainment. Strong and sudden subsidence events following prolonged deepening periods are found to cause the cloud collapses, associated with a substantial reduction in the surface downward longwave radiative flux. ©2019. The Authors