Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August, JJA) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid warming are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This study focuses on understanding causes of the rapid summer warming and associated temperature extreme changes. A set of experiments using the atmospheric component of the state-of-the-art HadGEM3 global climate model have been carried out to quantify relative roles of changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), and anthropogenic aerosols (AAer). Results indicate that the model forced by changes in all forcings reproduces many of the observed changes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Changes in SST/SIE explain 62.2% ± 13.0% of the area averaged seasonal mean warming signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37.8% ± 13.6% of the warming explained by the direct impact of changes in GHGs and AAer. Results further indicate that the direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe, mainly through aerosol-radiation interaction with additional contributions from aerosol-cloud interaction and coupled atmosphere-land surface feedbacks, is a key factor for increases in annual hottest day temperature and in frequency of summer days. It explains 45.5% ± 17.6% and 40.9% ± 18.4% of area averaged signals for these temperature extremes. The direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe acts to increase DTR locally, but the change in DTR is countered by the direct impact of GHGs forcing. In the next few decades, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise and AAer precursor emissions over Europe and North America will continue to decline. Our results suggest that the changes in summer seasonal mean SAT and temperature extremes over Western Europe since the mid-1990s are most likely to be sustained or amplified in the near term, unless other factors intervene

Blockchain in supply chain management: Australian manufacturer case study

The recent explosion of interest around Blockchain and capabilities of this technology to track all types of transaction more transparently and securely motivate us to explore the possibilities Blockchain offers across the supply chain. This paper examines whether Blockchain makes a good fit for use in an Australian manufacturer supply chain. To address this, the research uses Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) as a framework from the literature. Blockchain allows us to have permissioned or permission-less distributed ledgers where stakeholders can interact with each other. It details how Blockchain works and the mechanism of hash algorithms which allows for greater security of information. It also focuses on the supply chain management and looks at the intricacies of a manufacturers supply chain. We present a review of the processes in place of an electrical manufacturer and the problems faced in the supply chain. A model is proposed in using public and private Blockchains to overcome these issues. The proposed solution has the potential to bring greater transparency, validity across the supply chain, and improvement of communication between stakeholders involved. We also point out some potential issues that should be considered if adopting Blockchain.N/

Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change

Summer 2012 was very wet in northern Europe, and unusually dry and hot in southern Europe. We use multiple approaches to determine whether anthropogenic forcing made the extreme European summer of 2012 more likely. Using a number of observation- and model-based methods, we find that there was an anthropogenic contribution to the extremes in southern Europe, with a qualitative consensus across all methodologies. There was a consensus across the methodologies that there has been a significant increase in the risk of hot summers in southern Europe with climate change. Most approaches also suggested a slight drying, but none of the results were statistically significant. The unusually wet summer in northern Europe was made more likely by the observed atmospheric circulation pattern in 2012, but no evidence was found for a long-term trend in circulation

Concurrent Oral 1 - Therapy of rheumatic disease: OP4. Effectiveness of Rituximab in Rheumatoid Arthritis: Results from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register (BSRBR)

Background: Rituximab (RTX) in combination with methotrexate (MTX) has been licensed since 2006 for the management of severe active rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in patients who have failed at least one anti-tumour necrosis factor (anti-TNF) therapy. Published clinical trials have demonstrated the efficacy of RTX in improving both clinical symptoms and patients' physical function. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of RTX in RA patients treated in routine clinical practice by examining clinical and patient reported outcomes six months after receiving a first course of RTX. Methods: The analysis involved 550 RA patients registered with the BSRBR, who were starting RTX and were followed up for at least 6 months. Change in Disease Activity Score (DAS28) and European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) response were used to assess the clinical response while change in Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score was used to assess the physical function of the patients 6 months after starting RTX. The change in DAS28 and HAQ was compared between seronegative and seropositive patients and anti-TNF naïve patients versus anti-TNF failures. The response was also compared between patients receiving RTX in combination with MTX, other non-biologic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (nbDMARDs) or no nbDMARDs. Results: The mean (s.d.) age of the cohort was 59 (12) years and 78% of the patients were females. The patients had a mean (s.d.) of 15 (10) years of disease duration. 16% were biologic naïve while 84% were anti-TNF failures. 32% of the patients were seronegative and 68% were seropositive. The mean (95% CI) DAS28 at baseline was 6.2 (6.1, 6.3) which decreased to 4.8 (4.7, 4.9) at 6 months of follow up. 16% were EULAR good responders, 43% were moderate responders and 41% were non responders. The mean (95% CI) change in HAQ was −0.1 (−0.2, −0.1) (Table 1). The mean change in DAS28 was similar in seropositive and seronegative patients (p = 0.18) while the anti-TNF naïve patients showed a greater reduction in DAS28 scores than anti-TNF failures (p = 0.05). Patients receiving RTX in combination with MTX showed similar changes in DAS28 and HAQ compared to patients receiving RTX alone or with other nbDMARDs. Conclusions: RTX has proven to be effective in the routine clinical practice. Anti-TNF naïve patients seem to benefit more from RTX treatment than anti-TNF failures. Disclosure statement: The authors have declared no conflicts of interes

Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation

Understanding how human influence on climate is affecting precipitation around the world is immensely important for defining mitigation policies, and for adaptation planning. Yet despite increasing evidence for the influence of climate change on global patterns of precipitation, and expectations that significant changes in regional precipitation should have already occurred as a result of human influence on climate, compelling evidence of anthropogenic fingerprints on regional precipitation is obscured by observational and modelling uncertainties and is likely to remain so using current methods for years to come. This is in spite of substantial ongoing improvements in models, new reanalyses and a satellite record that spans over thirty years. If we are to quantify how human-induced climate change is affecting the regional water cycle, we need to consider novel ways of identifying the effects of natural and anthropogenic influences on precipitation that take full advantage of our physical expectations

Diversity, host specialization, and geographic structure of filarial nematodes infecting Malagasy bats

We investigated filarial infection in Malagasy bats to gain insights into the diversity of these parasites and explore the factors shaping their distribution. Samples were obtained from 947 individual bats collected from 52 sites on Madagascar and representing 31 of the 44 species currently recognized on the island. Samples were screened for the presence of micro-and macro-parasites through both molecular and morphological approaches. Phylogenetic analyses showed that filarial diversity in Malagasy bats formed three main groups, the most common represented by Litomosa spp. infecting Miniopterus spp. (Miniopteridae); a second group infecting Pipistrellus cf. hesperidus (Vespertilionidae) embedded within the Litomosoides cluster, which is recognized herein for the first time from Madagascar; and a third group composed of lineages with no clear genetic relationship to both previously described filarial nematodes and found in M. griveaudi, Myotis goudoti, Neoromicia matroka (Vespertilionidae), Otomops madagascariensis (Molossidae), and Paratriaenops furculus (Hipposideridae). We further analyzed the infection rates and distribution pattern of Litomosa spp., which was the most diverse and prevalent filarial taxon in our sample. Filarial infection was disproportionally more common in males than females in Miniopterus spp., which might be explained by some aspect of roosting behavior of these cave-dwelling bats. We also found marked geographic structure in the three Litomosa clades, mainly linked to bioclimatic conditions rather than host-parasite associations. While this study demonstrates distinct patterns of filarial nematode infection in Malagasy bats and highlights potential drivers of associated geographic distributions, future work should focus on their alpha taxonomy and characterize arthropod vectors

Factors associated with spontaneous stone passage in a contemporary cohort of patients presenting with acute ureteric colic. Results from the MIMIC Study (A Multi-centre cohort study evaluating the role of Inflammatory Markers in patients presenting with acute ureteric Colic)

Objectives There is conflicting data on the role of white blood cell count (WBC) and other inflammatory markers in spontaneous stone passage in patients with acute ureteric colic. The aim of the study was to assess the relationship of WBC and other routinely collected inflammatory and clinical markers including stone size, stone position and Medically Expulsive Therapy use (MET) with spontaneous stone passage (SSP) in a large contemporary cohort of patients with acute ureteric colic. Subjects and Methods Multi‐centre retrospective cohort study coordinated by the British Urology Researchers in Surgical Training (BURST) Research Collaborative at 71 secondary care hospitals across 4 countries (United Kingdom, Republic of Ireland, Australia and New Zealand). 4170 patients presented with acute ureteric colic and a computer tomography confirmed single ureteric stone. Our primary outcome measure was SSP as defined by the absence of need for intervention to assist stone passage. Multivariable mixed effects logistic regression was used to explore the relationship between key patient factors and SSP. Results 2518 patients were discharged with conservative management and had further follow up with a SSP rate of 74% (n = 1874/2518). Sepsis after discharge with conservative management was reported in 0.6% (n = 16/2518). On multivariable analysis neither WBC, Neutrophils or CRP were seen to predict SSP, with an adjusted OR of 0.97 [95% CI 0.91 to 1.04, p = 0.38], 1.06 [95% CI 0.99 to 1.13, p = 0.1] and 1.00 [95% CI 0.99 to 1.00, p = 0.17], respectively. Medical expulsive therapy (MET) also did not predict SSP [adjusted OR 1.11 [95% CI 0.76 to 1.61]). However, stone size and stone position were significant predictors. SSP for stones 7mm. For stones in the upper ureter the SSP rate was 52% [95% CI 48 to 56], middle ureter was 70% [95% CI 64 to 76], and lower ureter was 83% [95% CI 81 to 85]. Conclusion In contrast to the previously published literature, we found that in patients with acute ureteric colic who are discharged with initial conservative management, neither WBC, Neutrophil count or CRP help determine the likelihood of spontaneous stone passage. We also found no overall benefit from the use of MET. Stone size and position are important predictors and our findings represent the most comprehensive stone passage rates for each mm increase in stone size from a large contemporary cohort adjusting for key potential confounders. We anticipate that these data will aid clinicians managing patients with acute ureteric colic and help guide management decisions and the need for intervention