Using Non-Parametric Tests to Evaluate Traffic Forecasting Performance.

This paper proposes the use of a number of nonparametric comparison methods for evaluating traffic flow forecasting techniques. The advantage to these methods is that they are free of any distributional assumptions and can be legitimately used on small datasets. To demonstrate the applicability of these tests, a number of models for the forecasting of traffic flows are developed. The one-step-ahead forecasts produced are then assessed using nonparametric methods. Consideration is given as to whether a method is universally good or good at reproducing a particular aspect of the original series. That choice will be dictated, to a degree, by the user’s purpose for assessing traffic flow

Quasiparticle lifetime behaviour in a simplified self-consistent T-matrix treatment of the attractive Hubbard model in 2D

The attractive Hubbard model on a 2-D square lattice is studied at low electronic densities using the ladder approximation for the pair susceptibility. This model includes (i) the short coherence lengths known to exist experimentally in the cuprate superconductors, and (ii) two-particle bound states that correspond to electron pairs. We study the quasiparticle lifetimes in both non self-consistent and self-consistent theories, the latter including interactions between the pairs. We find that if we include the interactions between pairs the quasiparticle lifetimes vary approximately linearly with the inverse temperature, consistent with experiment.Comment: 2 pages, including 2 figures, to appear in the proceedings of the ICNS '9

Dispersive effects in neutron matter superfluidity

The explicit energy dependence of the single particle self-energy (dispersive effects), due to short range correlations, is included in the treatment of neutron matter superfluidity. The method can be applied in general to strong interacting fermion systems, and it is expected to be valid whenever the pairing gap is substantially smaller than the Fermi kinetic energy. The results for neutron matter show that dispersive effects are strong in the density region near the gap closure.Comment: 9 pages, 4 ps figure

Applications of sensitivity analysis for probit stochastic network equilibrium

Network equilibrium models are widely used by traffic practitioners to aid them in making decisions concerning the operation and management of traffic networks. The common practice is to test a prescribed range of hypothetical changes or policy measures through adjustments to the input data, namely the trip demands, the arc performance (travel time) functions, and policy variables such as tolls or signal timings. Relatively little use is, however, made of the full implicit relationship between model inputs and outputs inherent in these models. By exploiting the representation of such models as an equivalent optimisation problem, classical results on the sensitivity analysis of non-linear programs may be applied, to produce linear relationships between input data perturbations and model outputs. We specifically focus on recent results relating to the probit Stochastic User Equilibrium (PSUE) model, which has the advantage of greater behavioural realism and flexibility relative to the conventional Wardrop user equilibrium and logit SUE models. The paper goes on to explore four applications of these sensitivity expressions in gaining insight into the operation of road traffic networks. These applications are namely: identification of sensitive, ‘critical’ parameters; computation of approximate, re-equilibrated solutions following a change (post-optimisation); robustness analysis of model forecasts to input data errors, in the form of confidence interval estimation; and the solution of problems of the bi-level, optimal network design variety. Finally, numerical experiments applying these methods are reported

Virtual Organizational Learnign in Open Source Software Development Projects

We studied the existence of virtual organizational learning in open source software (OSS) development projects. Specifically, our research focused on learning effects of OSS projects and factors that affect the learning process. The number and percentage of resolved bugs and bug resolution time of 118 SourceForge.net OSS projects were used to measure the learning effects> Projects were characterized by project type, number and experience of developers, number of bugs, and bug resolution time. Our results provide evidence of virtual organizational learning in OSS development projects.Virtual organizational leraning: Organizational learning curve: Virtual organization: Open source software development: Project performance

PRDM14 is expressed in germ cell tumors with constitutive overexpression altering human germline differentiation and proliferation.

Germ cell tumors (GCTs) are a heterogeneous group of tumors occurring in gonadal and extragonadal locations. GCTs are hypothesized to arise from primordial germ cells (PGCs), which fail to differentiate. One recently identified susceptibility loci for human GCT is PR (PRDI-BF1 and RIZ) domain proteins 14 (PRDM14). PRDM14 is expressed in early primate PGCs and is repressed as PGCs differentiate. To examine PRDM14 in human GCTs we profiled human GCT cell lines and patient samples and discovered that PRDM14 is expressed in embryonal carcinoma cell lines, embryonal carcinomas, seminomas, intracranial germinomas and yolk sac tumors, but is not expressed in teratomas. To model constitutive overexpression in human PGCs, we generated PGC-like cells (PGCLCs) from human pluripotent stem cells (PSCs) and discovered that elevated expression of PRDM14 does not block early PGC formation. Instead, we show that elevated PRDM14 in PGCLCs causes proliferation and differentiation defects in the germline

A high-throughput screen identifies that CDK7 activates glucose consumption in lung cancer cells.

Elevated glucose consumption is fundamental to cancer, but selectively targeting this pathway is challenging. We develop a high-throughput assay for measuring glucose consumption and use it to screen non-small-cell lung cancer cell lines against bioactive small molecules. We identify Milciclib that blocks glucose consumption in H460 and H1975, but not in HCC827 or A549 cells, by decreasing SLC2A1 (GLUT1) mRNA and protein levels and by inhibiting glucose transport. Milciclib blocks glucose consumption by targeting cyclin-dependent kinase 7 (CDK7) similar to other CDK7 inhibitors including THZ1 and LDC4297. Enhanced PIK3CA signaling leads to CDK7 phosphorylation, which promotes RNA Polymerase II phosphorylation and transcription. Milciclib, THZ1, and LDC4297 lead to a reduction in RNA Polymerase II phosphorylation on the SLC2A1 promoter. These data indicate that our high-throughput assay can identify compounds that regulate glucose consumption and that CDK7 is a key regulator of glucose consumption in cells with an activated PI3K pathway

Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand

A technique is proposed for estimating the probability distribution of total network travel time, in the light of normal day-to-day variations in the travel demand matrix over a road traffic network. A solution method is proposed, based on a single run of a standard traffic assignment model, which operates in two stages. In stage one, moments of the total travel time distribution are computed by an analytic method, based on the multivariate moments of the link flow vector. In stage two, a flexible family of density functions is fitted to these moments. It is discussed how the resulting distribution may in practice be used to characterise unreliability. Illustrative numerical tests are reported on a simple network, where the method is seen to provide a means for identifying sensitive or vulnerable links, and for examining the impact on network reliability of changes to link capacities. Computational considerations for large networks, and directions for further research, are discussed