On infrastructure network design with agent-based modelling

We have developed an agent-based model to optimize green-field network design in an industrial area. We aim to capture some of the deep uncertainties surrounding infrastructure design by modelling it developing specific ant colony optimizations. Hence, we propose a variety of extensions to our existing work, first ideas on how to realize them and three cases to explicate our ideas. One case is the design of a CO2 pipeline network in Rotterdam industrial area. First simulation results have shown the relevance of the approach. Keywords-Infrastructure design, network planning, ant colony optimization, deep uncertainty, socio-technical systems

Automating agent-based modeling : data-driven generation and application of innovation diffusion models

Simulation modeling is useful to understand the mechanisms of the diffusion of innovations, which can be used for forecasting the future of innovations. This study aims to make the identification of such mechanisms less costly in time and labor. We present an approach that automates the generation of diffusion models by: (1) preprocessing of empirical data on the diffusion of a specific innovation, taken out by the user; (2) testing variations of agent-based models for their capability of explaining the data; (3) assessing interventions for their potential to influence the spreading of the innovation. We present a working software implementation of this procedure and apply it to the diffusion of water-saving showerheads. The presented procedure successfully generated simulation models that explained diffusion data. This progresses agent-based modeling methodologically by enabling detailed modeling at relative simplicity for users. This widens the circle of persons that can use simulation to shape innovation

Knowledge sharing in smart grid pilot projects

The major role that the electrification of the energy system is projected to play in the transition to a sustainable economy increases the pressure on the electricity grid and thereby creates a demand for the implementation of smart grid technologies. The interdependencies present in the electricity system require, and have led to, the wide-scale adoption of pilot projects to develop knowledge about the application of these technologies. While the knowledge sharing that stems from these projects is one of the justifications for subsidising these projects, it has remained largely a black box. Based on the analysis of interviews with the project leaders of sixteen smart grid pilot projects, complementary secondary data sources and a survey, we studied knowledge sharing at four levels: intra-organisational, intra-project, inter-project and project-external knowledge sharing. At each level we observed specific sublevels, mechanisms and barriers, resulting in complex knowledge sharing dynamics. While the projects succeeded in developing knowledge, knowledge sharing between projects run by different consortium partners rarely occurred and project-external knowledge sharing was primarily unidirectional and involved generic knowledge. Based on the results a set of recommendations was developed that can stimulate the knowledge sharing and thereby increase the value generated by these projects

Climate adaptation of interconnected infrastructures: a framework for supporting governance

Infrastructures are critical for human society, but vulnerable to climate change. The current body of research on infrastructure adaptation does not adequately account for the interconnectedness of infrastructures, both internally and with one another. We take a step toward addressing this gap through the introduction of a framework for infrastructure adaptation that conceptualizes infrastructures as complex socio-technical “systems of systems” embedded in a changing natural environment. We demonstrate the use of this framework by structuring potential climate change impacts and identifying adaptation options for a preliminary set of cases—road, electricity and drinking water infrastructures. By helping to clarify the relationships between impacts at different levels, we find that the framework facilitates the identification of key nodes in the web of possible impacts and helps in the identification of particularly nocuous weather conditions. We also explore how the framework may be applied more comprehensively to facilitate adaptation governance. We suggest that it may help to ensure that the mental models of stakeholders and the quantitative models of researchers incorporate the essential aspects of interacting climate and infrastructure systems. Further research is necessary to test the framework in these contexts and to determine when and where its application may be most beneficial.Infrastructure Networks Climate Adaptation and Hotspots. Knowledge for Climate Progra

Social agents?:A systematic review of social identity formalizations

Simulating collective decision-making and behaviour is at the heart of many agent-based models (ABMs). However, the representation of social context and its influence on an agent’s behaviour remains challenging. Here, the Social Identity Approach (SIA) from social psychology, offers a promising explanation, as it describes how people behave while being part of a group, how groups interact and how these interactions and ingroup norms can change over time. SIA is valuable for various application domains while also being challenging to formalise. To address this challenge and enable modellers to learn from existing work, we took stock of ABM formalisations of SIA and present a systematic review of SIA in ABMs. Our results show a diversity of application areas and formalisations of (parts of) SIA without any converging practice towards a default formalisation. Models range from simple to (cognitively) rich, with a group of abstract models in the tradition of opinion dynamics employing SIA to specify group-based social influence. We also found some complex cognitive SIA formalisations incorporating contextual behaviour. When considering the function of SIA in the models, representing collectives, modelling group-based social influence and unpacking contextual behaviour all stood out. Our review was also an inventory of the formalisation challenge attached to using a very promising socialpsychological theory in ABMs, revealing a tendency for reference to domain-specific theories to remain vague

Editorial: Tipping points in societies

Energie and Industri