Modeling abundance using N-mixture models: the importance of considering ecological mechanisms

Predicting abundance across a species' distribution is useful for studies of ecology and biodiversity management. Modeling of survey data in relation to environmental variables can be a powerful method for extrapolating abundances across a species' distribution and, consequently, calculating total abundances and ultimately trends. Research in this area has demonstrated that models of abundance are often unstable and produce spurious estimates, and until recently our ability to remove detection error limited the development of accurate models. The N-mixture model accounts for detection and abundance simultaneously and has been a significant advance in abundance modeling. Case studies that have tested these new models have demonstrated success for some species, but doubt remains over the appropriateness of standard N-mixture models for many species. Here we develop the N-mixture model to accommodate zero-inflated data, a common occurrence in ecology, by employing zero-inflated count models. To our knowledge, this is the first application of this method to modeling count data. We use four variants of the N-mixture model (Poisson, zero-inflated Poisson, negative binomial, and zero-inflated negative binomial) to model abundance, occupancy (zero-inflated models only) and detection probability of six birds in South Australia. We assess models by their statistical fit and the ecological realism of the parameter estimates. Specifically, we assess the statistical fit with AIC and assess the ecological realism by comparing the parameter estimates with expected values derived from literature, ecological theory, and expert opinion. We demonstrate that, despite being frequently ranked the “best model” according to AIC, the negative binomial variants of the N-mixture often produce ecologically unrealistic parameter estimates. The zero-inflated Poisson variant is preferable to the negative binomial variants of the N-mixture, as it models an ecological mechanism rather than a statistical phenomenon and generates reasonable parameter estimates. Our results emphasize the need to include ecological reasoning when choosing appropriate models and highlight the dangers of modeling statistical properties of the data. We demonstrate that, to obtain ecologically realistic estimates of abundance, occupancy and detection probability, it is essential to understand the sources of variation in the data and then use this information to choose appropriate error distributions. Copyright ESA. All rights reserved

The development of computational biology in South Africa: successes achieved and lessons learnt

Bioinformatics is now a critical skill in many research and commercial environments as biological data are increasing in both size and complexity. South African researchers recognized this need in the mid-1990s and responded by working with the government as well as international bodies to develop initiatives to build bioinformatics capacity in the country. Significant injections of support from these bodies provided a springboard for the establishment of computational biology units at multiple universities throughout the country, which took on teaching, basic research and support roles. Several challenges were encountered, for example with unreliability of funding, lack of skills, and lack of infrastructure. However, the bioinformatics community worked together to overcome these, and South Africa is now arguably the leading country in bioinformatics on the African continent. Here we discuss how the discipline developed in the country, highlighting the challenges, successes, and lessons learnt

Recent Asian origin of chytrid fungi causing global amphibian declines

Globalized infectious diseases are causing species declines worldwide, but their source often remains elusive. We used whole-genome sequencing to solve the spatiotemporal origins of the most devastating panzootic to date, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a proximate driver of global amphibian declines. We traced the source of B. dendrobatidis to the Korean peninsula, where one lineage, BdASIA-1, exhibits the genetic hallmarks of an ancestral population that seeded the panzootic. We date the emergence of this pathogen to the early 20th century, coinciding with the global expansion of commercial trade in amphibians, and we show that intercontinental transmission is ongoing. Our findings point to East Asia as a geographic hotspot for B. dendrobatidis biodiversity and the original source of these lineages that now parasitize amphibians worldwide

Catastrophic Floods May Pave the Way for Increased Genetic Diversity in Endemic Artesian Spring Snail Populations

The role of disturbance in the promotion of biological heterogeneity is widely recognised and occurs at a variety of ecological and evolutionary scales. However, within species, the impact of disturbances that decimate populations are neither predicted nor known to result in conditions that promote genetic diversity. Directly examining the population genetic consequences of catastrophic disturbances however, is rarely possible, as it requires both longitudinal genetic data sets and serendipitous timing. Our long-term study of the endemic aquatic invertebrates of the artesian spring ecosystem of arid central Australia has presented such an opportunity. Here we show a catastrophic flood event, which caused a near total population crash in an aquatic snail species (Fonscochlea accepta) endemic to this ecosystem, may have led to enhanced levels of within species genetic diversity. Analyses of individuals sampled and genotyped from the same springs sampled both pre (1988–1990) and post (1995, 2002–2006) a devastating flood event in 1992, revealed significantly higher allelic richness, reduced temporal population structuring and greater effective population sizes in nearly all post flood populations. Our results suggest that the response of individual species to disturbance and severe population bottlenecks is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and may depend on both their ecology (whether they are resilient or resistant to disturbance) and the stability of the environmental conditions (i.e. frequency and intensity of disturbances) in which they have evolved

The logic of kinetic regulation in the thioredoxin system

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The thioredoxin system consisting of NADP(H), thioredoxin reductase and thioredoxin provides reducing equivalents to a large and diverse array of cellular processes. Despite a great deal of information on the kinetics of individual thioredoxin-dependent reactions, the kinetic regulation of this system as an integrated whole is not known. We address this by using kinetic modeling to identify and describe kinetic behavioral motifs found within the system.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Analysis of a realistic computational model of the <it>Escherichia coli </it>thioredoxin system revealed several modes of kinetic regulation in the system. In keeping with published findings, the model showed that thioredoxin-dependent reactions were adaptable (i.e. changes to the thioredoxin system affected the kinetic profiles of these reactions). Further and in contrast to other systems-level descriptions, analysis of the model showed that apparently unrelated thioredoxin oxidation reactions can affect each other via their combined effects on the thioredoxin redox cycle. However, the scale of these effects depended on the kinetics of the individual thioredoxin oxidation reactions with some reactions more sensitive to changes in the thioredoxin cycle and others, such as the Tpx-dependent reduction of hydrogen peroxide, less sensitive to these changes. The coupling of the thioredoxin and Tpx redox cycles also allowed for ultrasensitive changes in the thioredoxin concentration in response to changes in the thioredoxin reductase concentration. We were able to describe the kinetic mechanisms underlying these behaviors precisely with analytical solutions and core models.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Using kinetic modeling we have revealed the logic that underlies the functional organization and kinetic behavior of the thioredoxin system. The thioredoxin redox cycle and associated reactions allows for a system that is adaptable, interconnected and able to display differential sensitivities to changes in this redox cycle. This work provides a theoretical, systems-biological basis for an experimental analysis of the thioredoxin system and its associated reactions.</p

Genetic variability and ontogeny predict microbiome structure in a disease-challenged montane amphibian

Amphibian populations worldwide are at risk of extinction from infectious diseases, including chytridiomycosis caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Amphibian cutaneous microbiomes interact with Bd and can confer protective benefits to the host. The composition of the microbiome itself is influenced by many environment- and host-related factors. However, little is known about the interacting effects of host population structure, genetic variation and developmental stage on microbiome composition and Bd prevalence across multiple sites. Here we explore these questions in Amietia hymenopus, a disease-affected frog in southern Africa. We use microsatellite genotyping and 16S amplicon sequencing to show that the microbiome associated with tadpole mouthparts is structured spatially, and is influenced by host genotype and developmental stage. We observed strong genetic structure in host populations based on rivers and geographic distances, but this did not correspond to spatial patterns in microbiome composition. These results indicate that demographic and host genetic factors affect microbiome composition within sites, but different factors are responsible for host population structure and microbiome structure at the between-site level. Our results help to elucidate complex within- and among- population drivers of microbiome structure in amphibian populations. That there is a genetic basis to microbiome composition in amphibians could help to inform amphibian conservation efforts against infectious diseases

Use of micro CHP plants to support the local operation of electric heat pumps

Fig. 1. Global distribution of chytridiomycosis-associated amphibian species declines. Bar plots indicate the number (N) of declined species, grouped by continental area and classified by decline severity. Brazilian species are plotted separately from all other South American species (South America W); Mesoamerica includes Central America, Mexico, and the Caribbean Islands; and Oceania includes Australia and New Zealand. No declines have been reported in Asia. n, total number of declines by region. [Photo credits (clockwise from top left): Anaxyrus boreas, C. Brown, U.S. Geological Survey; Atelopus varius, B.G.; Salamandra salamandra, D. Descouens, Wikimedia Commons; Telmatobius sanborni, I.D.l.R; Cycloramphus boraceiensis, L.F.T.; Cardioglossa melanogaster, M.H.; and Pseudophryne corroboree, C. Doughty

Modelling the Decamerisation Cycle of PRDX1 and the Inhibition-like Effect on Its Peroxidase Activity

Peroxiredoxins play central roles in the detoxification of reactive oxygen species and have been modelled across multiple organisms using a variety of kinetic methods. However, the peroxiredoxin dimer-to-decamer transition has been underappreciated in these studies despite the 100-fold difference in activity between these forms. This is due to the lack of available kinetics and a theoretical framework for modelling this process. Using published isothermal titration calorimetry data, we obtained association and dissociation rate constants of 0.050 µM−4·s−1 and 0.055 s−1, respectively, for the dimer–decamer transition of human PRDX1. We developed an approach that greatly reduces the number of reactions and species needed to model the peroxiredoxin decamer oxidation cycle. Using these data, we simulated horse radish peroxidase competition and NADPH-oxidation linked assays and found that the dimer–decamer transition had an inhibition-like effect on peroxidase activity. Further, we incorporated this dimer–decamer topology and kinetics into a published and validated in vivo model of PRDX2 in the erythrocyte and found that it almost perfectly reconciled experimental and simulated responses of PRDX2 oxidation state to hydrogen peroxide insult. By accounting for the dimer–decamer transition of peroxiredoxins, we were able to resolve several discrepancies between experimental data and available kinetic models