A refined model for the Earth's global energy balance

A commonly-used model of the global radiative budget assumes that the radiative response to forcing, R, is proportional to global surface air temperature T, R=λT . Previous studies have highlighted two unresolved issues with this model: first, the feedback parameter λ depends on the forcing agent; second, λ varies with time. Here, we investigate the factors controlling R in two atmosphere–slab ocean climate models subjected to a wide range of abrupt climate forcings. It is found that R scales not only with T, but also with the large-scale tropospheric stability S (defined here as the estimated inversion strength area-averaged over ocean regions equatorward of 50∘). Positive S promotes negative R, mainly through shortwave cloud and lapse-rate changes. A refined model of the global energy balance is proposed that accounts for both temperature and stability effects. This refined model quantitatively explains (1) the dependence of climate feedbacks on forcing agent (or equivalently, differences in forcing efficacy), and (2) the time evolution of feedbacks in coupled climate model experiments. Furthermore, a similar relationship between R and S is found in observations compared with models, lending confidence that the refined energy balance model is applicable to the real world

Differentiation and dynamics of competitiveness impacts from the EU ETS

We summarises the main factors that differentiate impacts of the EU ETS on profitability and market share. By examining sampling a range of sectors, we present some simple metrics and indicators to help judge the nature of potential impacts. We also consider briefly the mitigation response to these impacts by sectors, and how they may evolve over time. The broad conclusion confirms the aggregate findings presented in the existing literature - most participating sectors are likely to profit under the current ETS structure out to 2012 at the cost of a modest loss of market share, but this may not hold for individual companies and regions. The period 2008-12 can assist participating sectors to build experience and financial reserves for longer term technology investments and diversification, providing the continuation and basic principles of the EU ETS post-2012 is quickly defined and incentives are in place for sectors to pursue this.Emissions trading, industrial competitiveness, spillovers, allowance allocation, perverse incentives.

Fast and slow components of the extratropical atmospheric circulation response to CO2 forcing

Poleward shifts of the extratropical atmospheric circulation are a common response to CO2 forcing in global climate models (GCMs), but little is known about the time dependence of this response. Here it is shown that in coupled climate models, the long-term evolution of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) induces two distinct time scales of circulation response to step-like CO2 forcing. In most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 GCMs as well as in the multi-model mean, all of the poleward shift of the midlatitude jets and Hadley cell edge occurs in a fast response within 5 to 10 years of the forcing, during which less than half of the expected equilibrium warming is realized. Compared with this fast response, the slow response over subsequent decades to centuries features stronger polar amplification (especially in the Antarctic), enhanced warming in the Southern Ocean, an El Nino-like pattern of tropical Pacific warming, and weaker land-sea contrast. Atmosphere-only GCM experiments demonstrate that the SST evolution drives the difference between the fast and slow circulation responses, although the direct radiative effect of CO2 also contributes to the fast response. It is further shown that the fast and slow responses determine the long-term evolution of the circulation response to warming in the RCP4.5 scenario. The results imply that shifts in midlatitude circulation generally scale with the radiative forcing, rather than with global-mean temperature change. A corollary is that time slices taken from a transient simulation at a given level of warming will considerably overestimate the extratropical circulation response in a stabilized climate

Virtual Tours and Informational Models for Improving Territorial Attractiveness and the Smart Management of Architectural Heritage: The 3D-IMP-ACT Project

The promotion and dissemination of architectural heritage for cultural enhancement and touristic enjoyment are increasingly focused on innovative ICTs, including 3D Geographic Information Systems, photorealistic models and scenes, and VR/AR immersive digital environments, which enable the interaction of visitors with a variety of informational contents, both educational and specialist. Within the above-mentioned framework, this paper will firstly outline the general objectives of the project “3D-IMP-ACT”, which has been funded under the international cooperation programme IPA CBC Interreg Italy-Albania-Montenegro. In this research, some ICT tools are tested and validated to create “virtual networks” of international ancient architectures and sites, based on the identification of “physical networks” of common historic, environmental and technical characteristics and infrastructural connections, in order to address coordinated strategies and transversal policies for development and management. Then, the paper will describe and discuss some results from the design and implementation of the project WebGIS system, which integrates virtual tours of 360° panoramas, 3D models from photomodelling of pictures taken by drones, multimedia contents, and 2D/3D historic evolution schemes within a single platform, where the users are supported in recognizing and exploring the tangible and intangible correspondences among the project pilot-cases. In conclusion, some remarks will be proposed on the potential benefits of the platform as an expert system which supports the technical assessment and control of architectural heritage toward maintenance, refurbishment and conservation

Activation of Fas/FasL pathway and the role of c-FLIP in primary culture of human cholangiocarcinoma cells

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) represents a heterogeneous group of malignancies emerging from the biliary tree, often in the context of chronic bile ducts inflammation. The immunological features of iCCA cells and their capability to control the lymphocytes response have not yet been investigated. The aims of the present study were to evaluate the interaction between iCCA cells and human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and the role of Fas/FasL in modulating T-cells and NK-cells response after direct co-culture. iCCA cells express high levels of Fas and FasL that increase after co-culture with PBMCs inducing apoptosis in CD4(+), CD8(+) T-cells and in CD56(+) NK-cells. In vitro, c-FLIP is expressed in iCCA cells and the co-culture with PBMCs induces an increase of c-FLIP in both iCCA cells and biliary tree stem cells. This c-FLIP increase does not trigger the caspase cascade, thus hindering apoptotis of iCCA cells which, instead, underwent proliferation. The increased expression of Fas, FasL and c-FLIP is confirmed in situ, in human CCA and in primary sclerosing cholangitis. In conclusion our data indicated that iCCA cells have immune-modulatory properties by which they induce apoptosis of T and NK cells, via Fas/FasL pathway, and escape inflammatory response by up-regulating c-FLIP system

Relationship of tropospheric stability to climate sensitivity and Earth’s observed radiation budget

Climate feedbacks generally become smaller in magnitude over time under CO2 forcing in coupled climate models, leading to an increase in the effective climate sensitivity, the estimated global-mean surface warming in steady state for doubled CO2. Here, we show that the evolution of climate feedbacks in models is consistent with the effect of a change in tropospheric stability, as has recently been hypothesized, and the latter is itself driven by the evolution of the pattern of sea-surface temperature response. The change in climate feedback is mainly associated with a decrease in marine tropical low cloud (a more positive shortwave cloud feedback) and with a less negative lapse-rate feedback, as expected from a decrease in stability. Smaller changes in surface albedo and humidity feedbacks also contribute to the overall change in feedback, but are unexplained by stability. The spatial pattern of feedback changes closely matches the pattern of stability changes, with the largest increase in feedback occurring in the tropical East Pacific. Relationships qualitatively similar to those in the models among sea-surface temperature pattern, stability, and radiative budget are also found in observations on interannual time scales. Our results suggest that constraining the future evolution of sea-surface temperature patterns and tropospheric stability will be necessary for constraining climate sensitivity

Mapping drought characteristics in northern Algerian Basins using the ERA5-Land dataset

Over the past decades, drought events have led to significant agricultural losses and water shortages in the Algerian catchments; these hydro-meteorological phenomena strongly affect the entire Mediterranean region, and its frequency and intensity may increase due to climate change. The purpose of this study is to investigate drought conditions in the northern region of Algeria using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) at different monthly scales (3, 6, 12, 24 months), calculated through the ERA5-Land monthly dataset, which provides a much more detailed mapping of drought vulnerability across the country compared to observed rain gauge data, whose ground distribution is sparse and whose data archive is neither homogeneous nor complete for the study area. The main characteristics of drought events (e.g., quantity, duration, severity, and intensity), that have historically affected several hydrological basins in the northern part of the nation, are examined using the run theory applied to SPI values from 1950 to 2022. Although a high number of occurrences appear at shorter timescales, the results indicate that these episodes generally have shorter durations and lower severity compared to long-timescale droughts. Specifically, a decrease in the average number of drought events as the timescale increases is found: from 69 events for the 3-month SPI, with an average duration of about 2 months, to 17 events for the 24-month SPI, with an average duration of approximately 8 months. By analysing the spatial and temporal distribution of drought features, this approach aims to identify areas experiencing water stress and support more effective water management and mitigation strategies

Emissions generated by sugarcane burning promote genotoxicity in rural workers: a case study in Barretos, Brazil

Background: To determine the possible genotoxic effect of exposure to the smoke generated by biomass burning on workers involved in manual sugar cane harvesting. Methods: The frequency of micronuclei in exfoliated buccal cells and peripheral blood lymphocytes was determined in sugarcane workers in the Barretos region of Brazil, during the harvest season and compared to a control population, comprised of administrative employees of Barretos Cancer Hospital. Results: The frequency of micronuclei was higher in the sugar cane workers. The mean frequency in blood lymphocytes (micronuclei/1000 cells) in the test group was 8.22 versus 1.27 in the control group. The same effect was observed when exfoliated buccal cells were considered (22.75 and 9.70 micronuclei/1000 cells for sugar cane workers and controls, respectively). Conclusion: Exposure to emissions produced by the burning of sugar cane during harvesting induces genomic instability in workers, indicating the necessity of adopting more advanced techniques of harvesting sugar cane to preserve human health.We thank the Researcher Support Center of Barretos Cancer Hospital, especially the statistician Zanardo C. for assisting in the statistical analysis. We thank Oliveira R. for technical support, and we acknowledge financial support from FAPESP Proc. 2010/10192-6

Effects of Model Horizontal Grid Resolution on Short- and Medium-Term Daily Temperature Forecasts for Energy Consumption Application in European Cities

A short-term forecast of energy consumption is affected by different factors related to the demand in residential, commercial, thermoelectric, and industrial sectors. This demand can be strongly constrained by weather variables, especially temperatures, whose forecast may be very useful to predict the balances between supply and demand, minimizing the risk of price volatility. Energy companies use the relationship between meteorological forecast output and energy request to provide an effective scheduling of national gas and power grids and reduce operational costs in critical periods. This work reports a comparison analysis for short- and medium-term daily temperature forecasts during the period 2013-2014 by using the weather model e-kmf™ (eni-kassandra meteo forecast), currently adopted in gas and power applications where meteorological output has a key role. This weather forecast system uses different models and initial data to develop probabilistic predictions from a perspective of eleven days ahead. In particular, a set of model runs with horizontal grid spacing of 5.5, 8, 13, and 18 km with the same domain size are undertaken to assess the sensitivity of temperature to horizontal resolutions. A nonlinear Kalman filter has been also applied to postprocess forecasted data in eight European cities (Milano, Roma, Torino, Napoli, Munich, Paris, Brussels, and London). Filtered forecasts over these cities have been compared to local observations taken from SYNOP (surface synoptic observations) and METAR (meteorological Aerodrome Report) stations. Skill scores of performance have been used to generally assess the forecast reliability up to day +11. In order to understand the sensitivity to the horizontal resolution, investigations have been carried out even during four specific periods of two weeks with stable and unstable weather conditions

From deterministic to probabilistic forecasts: The ‘shift-target’ approach in the Milan urban area (Northern Italy)

The number of natural catastrophes that affect people worldwide is increasing; among these, the hydro-meteorological events represent the worst scenario due to the thousands of deaths and huge damages to private and state ownership they can cause. To prevent this, besides various structural measures, many non-structural solutions, such as the implementation of flood warning systems, have been proposed in recent years. In this study, we suggest a low computational cost method to produce a probabilistic flood prediction system using a single forecast precipitation scenario perturbed via a spatial shift. In fact, it is well-known that accurate forecasts of heavy precipitation, especially associated with deep moist convection, are challenging due to uncertainties arising from the numerical weather prediction (NWP), and high sensitivity to misrepresentation of the initial atmospheric state. Inaccuracies in precipitation forecasts are partially due to spatial misplacing. To produce hydro-meteorological simulations and forecasts, we use a flood forecasting system which comprises the physically-based rainfall-runoff hydrological model FEST-WB developed by the Politecnico di Milano, and the MOLOCH meteorological model provided by the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC). The areas of study are the hydrological basins of the rivers Seveso, Olona, and Lambro located in the northern part of Milan city (northern Italy) where this system works every day in real-time. In this paper, we show the performance of reforecasts carried out between the years 2012 and 2015: in particular, we explore the ‘Shift-Target’ (ST) approach in order to obtain 40 ensemble members, which we assume equally likely, derived from the available deterministic precipitation forecast. Performances are shown through statistical indexes based on exceeding the threshold for different gauge stations over the three hydrological basins. Results highlight how the Shift-Target approach complements the deterministic MOLOCH-based flood forecast for warning purposes