Proposing new variables for the identification of strategic groups in franchising

The identification of strategic groups in the Spanish franchising area is the main aim of this study. The authors have added some new strategic variables (not used before) to the study and have classified franchisors between sectors and distribution strategy. The results reveal the existence of four perfectly differentiated strategic groups (types of franchisors). One of the major implications of this study is that the variables that build a strategic group vary depending on the respective sector the network operates in and its distribution strategy. This fact indicates that including sector and distribution strategy is absolutely necessary to achieve good classifications of franchisor type

The PEARL score predicts 90-day readmission or death after hospitalisation for acute exacerbation of COPD.

BACKGROUND: One in three patients hospitalised due to acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) is readmitted within 90 days. No tool has been developed specifically in this population to predict readmission or death. Clinicians are unable to identify patients at particular risk, yet resources to prevent readmission are allocated based on clinical judgement. METHODS: In participating hospitals, consecutive admissions of patients with AECOPD were identified by screening wards and reviewing coding records. A tool to predict 90-day readmission or death without readmission was developed in two hospitals (the derivation cohort) and validated in: (a) the same hospitals at a later timeframe (internal validation cohort) and (b) four further UK hospitals (external validation cohort). Performance was compared with ADO, BODEX, CODEX, DOSE and LACE scores. RESULTS: Of 2417 patients, 936 were readmitted or died within 90 days of discharge. The five independent variables in the final model were: Previous admissions, eMRCD score, Age, Right-sided heart failure and Left-sided heart failure (PEARL). The PEARL score was consistently discriminative and accurate with a c-statistic of 0.73, 0.68 and 0.70 in the derivation, internal validation and external validation cohorts. Higher PEARL scores were associated with a shorter time to readmission. CONCLUSIONS: The PEARL score is a simple tool that can effectively stratify patients' risk of 90-day readmission or death, which could help guide readmission avoidance strategies within the clinical and research setting. It is superior to other scores that have been used in this population. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: UKCRN ID 14214

Sex differences between women and men with COPD: A new analysis of the 3CIA study

Background: There is partial evidence that COPD is expressed differently in women than in men, namely on symptoms, pulmonary function, exacerbations, comorbidities or prognosis. There is a need to improve the characterization of COPD in females. Methods: We obtained and pooled data of 17 139 patients from 22 COPD cohorts and analysed the clinical differences by sex, establishing the relationship between these characteristics in women and the prognosis and severity of the disease. Comparisons were established with standard statistics and survival analysis, including crude and multivariate Cox-regression analysis. Results: Overall, 5355 (31.2%) women were compared with men with COPD. Women were younger, had lower pack-years, greater FEV1%, lower BMI and a greater number of exacerbations (all p < 0.05). On symptoms, women reported more dyspnea, equal cough but less expectoration (p < 0.001). There were no differences in the BODE index score in women (2.4) versus men (2.4) (p = 0.5), but the distribution of all BODE components was highly variable by sex within different thresholds of BODE. On prognosis, 5-year survival was higher in COPD females (86.9%) than in males (76.3%), p < 0.001, in all patients and within each of the specific comorbidities that we assessed. The crude and adjusted RR and 95% C.I. for death in males was 1.82 (1.69–1.96) and 1.73 (1.50–2.00), respectively. Conclusions: COPD in women has some characteristic traits expressed differently than compared to men, mainly with more dyspnea and COPD exacerbations and less phlegm, among others, although long-term survival appears better in female COPD patients

Predictors of Hospitalized Exacerbations and Mortality in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Background and Aim Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) carry significant consequences for patients and are responsible for considerable health-care costs?particularly if hospitalization is required. Despite the importance of hospitalized exacerbations, relatively little is known about their determinants. This study aimed to analyze predictors of hospitalized exacerbations and mortality in COPD patients. Methods This was a retrospective population-based cohort study.We selected 900 patients with confirmed COPD aged 35 years by simple random sampling among all COPD patients in Cantabria (northern Spain) on December 31, 2011. We defined moderate exacerbations as events that led a care provider to prescribe antibiotics or corticosteroids and severe exacerbations as exacerbations requiring hospital admission.We observed exacerbation frequency over the previous year (2011) and following year (2012). We categorized patients according to COPD severity based on forced expiratory volume in 1 second (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] grades 1?4). We estimated the odds ratios (ORs) by logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, COPD severity, and frequent exacerbator phenotype the previous year. Results Of the patients, 16.4%had 1 severe exacerbations, varying from 9.3%in mild GOLD grade 1 to 44%in very severe COPD patients. A history of at least two prior severe exacerbations was positively associated with new severe exacerbations (adjusted OR, 6.73; 95%confidence interval [CI], 3.53?12.83) and mortality (adjusted OR, 7.63; 95%CI, 3.41?17.05). Older age and several comorbidities, such as heart failure and diabetes, were similarly associated. Conclusions Hospitalized exacerbations occurred with all grades of airflow limitation. A history of severe exacerbations was associated with new hospitalized exacerbations and mortality

New GOLD classification: Longitudinal data on group assignment

Rationale: Little is known about the longitudinal changes associated with using the 2013 update of the multidimensional GOLD strategy for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Objective: To determine the COPD patient distribution of the new GOLD proposal and evaluate how this classification changes over one year compared with the previous GOLD staging based on spirometry only. Methods: We analyzed data from the CHAIN study, a multicenter observational Spanish cohort of COPD patients who are monitored annually. Categories were defined according to the proposed GOLD: FEV1%, mMRC dyspnea, COPD Assessment Test (CAT), Clinical COPD Questionnaire (CCQ), and exacerbations-hospitalizations. One-year follow-up information was available for all variables except CCQ data. Results: At baseline, 828 stable COPD patients were evaluated. On the basis of mMRC dyspnea versus CAT, the patients were distributed as follows: 38.2% vs. 27.2% in group A, 17.6% vs. 28.3% in group B, 15.8% vs. 12.9% in group C, and 28.4% vs. 31.6% in group D. Information was available for 526 patients at one year: 64.2% of patients remained in the same group but groups C and D show different degrees of variability. The annual progression by group was mainly associated with one-year changes in CAT scores (RR, 1.138; 95%CI: 1.074-1.206) and BODE index values (RR, 2.012; 95%CI: 1.487-2.722). Conclusions: In the new GOLD grading classification, the type of tool used to determine the level of symptoms can substantially alter the group assignment. A change in category after one year was associated with longitudinal changes in the CAT and BODE index

New GOLD classification: longitudinal data on group assignment

Rationale: Little is known about the longitudinal changes associated with using the 2013 update of the multidimensional GOLD strategy for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Objective: To determine the COPD patient distribution of the new GOLD proposal and evaluate how this classification changes over one year compared with the previous GOLD staging based on spirometry only. Methods: We analyzed data from the CHAIN study, a multicenter observational Spanish cohort of COPD patients who are monitored annually. Categories were defined according to the proposed GOLD: FEV1%, mMRC dyspnea, COPD Assessment Test (CAT), Clinical COPD Questionnaire (CCQ), and exacerbations-hospitalizations. One-year follow-up information was available for all variables except CCQ data. Results: At baseline, 828 stable COPD patients were evaluated. On the basis of mMRC dyspnea versus CAT, the patients were distributed as follows: 38.2% vs. 27.2% in group A, 17.6% vs. 28.3% in group B, 15.8% vs. 12.9% in group C, and 28.4% vs. 31.6% in group D. Information was available for 526 patients at one year: 64.2% of patients remained in the same group but groups C and D show different degrees of variability. The annual progression by group was mainly associated with one-year changes in CAT scores (RR, 1.138; 95%CI: 1.074-1.206) and BODE index values (RR, 2.012; 95%CI: 1.487-2.722). Conclusions: In the new GOLD grading classification, the type of tool used to determine the level of symptoms can substantially alter the group assignment. A change in category after one year was associated with longitudinal changes in the CAT and BODE index

Finding the best thresholds of FEV1 and dyspnea to predict 5-year survival in COPD patients: the COCOMICS study

BACKGROUND: FEV1 is universally used as a measure of severity in COPD. Current thresholds are based on expert opinion and not on evidence. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to identify the best FEV1 (% predicted) and dyspnea (mMRC) thresholds to predict 5-yr survival in COPD patients. DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a patient-based pooled analysis of eleven COPD Spanish cohorts (COCOMICS). Survival analysis, ROC curves, and C-statistics were used to identify and compare the best FEV1 (%) and mMRC scale thresholds that predict 5-yr survival. RESULTS: A total of 3,633 patients (93% men), totaling 15,878 person-yrs. were included, with a mean age 66.4 ± 9.7, and predicted FEV1 of 53.8% (± 19.4%). Overall 975 (28.1%) patients died at 5 years. The best thresholds that spirometrically split the COPD population were: mild ≥ 70%, moderate 56-69%, severe 36-55%, and very severe ≤ 35%. Survival at 5 years was 0.89 for patients with FEV1 ≥ 70 vs. 0.46 in patients with FEV1 ≤ 35% (H.R: 6; 95% C.I.: 4.69-7.74). The new classification predicts mortality significantly better than dyspnea (mMRC) or FEV1 GOLD and BODE cutoffs (all p<0.001). Prognostic reliability is maintained at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years. In younger patients, survival was similar for FEV1 (%) values between 70% and 100%, whereas in the elderly the relationship between FEV1 (%) and mortality was inversely linear. CONCLUSIONS: The best thresholds for 5-yr survival were obtained stratifying FEV1 (%) by ≥ 70%, 56-69%, 36-55%, and ≤ 35%. These cutoffs significantly better predict mortality than mMRC or FEV1 (%) GOLD and BODE cutoffs

Mortality prediction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease comparing the GOLD 2015 and GOLD 2019 staging: a pooled analysis of individual patient data

In 2019, The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) modified the grading system for patients with COPD, creating 16 subgroups (1A–4D). As part of the COPD Cohorts Collaborative International Assessment (3CIA) initiative, we aim to compare the mortality prediction of the 2015 and 2019 COPD GOLD staging systems. We studied 17 139 COPD patients from the 3CIA study, selecting those with complete data. Patients were classified by the 2015 and 2019 GOLD ABCD systems, and we compared the predictive ability for 5-year mortality of both classifications. In total, 17 139 patients with COPD were enrolled in 22 cohorts from 11 countries between 2003 and 2017; 8823 of them had complete data and were analysed. Mean±sd age was 63.9±9.8 years and 62.9% were male. GOLD 2019 classified the patients in milder degrees of COPD. For both classifications, group D had higher mortality. 5-year mortality did not differ between groups B and C in GOLD 2015; in GOLD 2019, mortality was greater for group B than C. Patients classified as group A and B had better sensitivity and positive predictive value with the GOLD 2019 classification than GOLD 2015. GOLD 2015 had better sensitivity for group C and D than GOLD 2019. The area under the curve values for 5-year mortality were only 0.67 (95% CI 0.66–0.68) for GOLD 2015 and 0.65 (95% CI 0.63–0.66) for GOLD 2019