A Postprocessing methodology for direct normal irradiance forecasting using cloud information and aerosol load forecasts

A method for direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasting for specific sites is proposed. It is based on the combination of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, which provides cloud information, with radiative transfer simulations fed with external aerosol forecasts. The NWP model used is the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System, and the radiative transfer information has been obtained from the Library of Radiative Transfer (libRadtran). Two types of aerosol forecasts have been tested: the global Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) model, which predicts five major components of aerosols, and the Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (BSC-DREAM8b) added to a fixed background calculated as the 20th percentile of the monthly mean of AERONET 2.0 observations from a different year. The methodology employed is valid for all meteorological situations, providing a stable and continuous DNI curve. The performance of the combined method has been evaluated against DNI observations and compared with the pure ECMWF forecasts at eight locations in the southern half of mainland Spain and the Canary Islands, which received high loadings of African dust for 2013 and 2014. Results for 1-day forecasts are presented. Although clouds play a major role, aerosols have a significant effect, but at shorter time scales. The combination of ECMWF and MACC forecasts gives the best global results, improving the DNI forecasts in events with high aerosol content. The regional BSC-DREAM8b yields good results for some extremely high dust conditions, although more reliable predictions, valid for any aerosol conditions, are provided by the MACC model

Costes de las inoculaciones accidentales en personal sanitario de un hospital

ResumenObjetivosEl objetivo de este estudio es calcular el coste medio a que asciende cada seguimiento de hepatitis B, C y VIH en el personal sanitario que ha sufrido una inoculación accidental, desagregar el coste en dependencia del estado serológico de la fuente e identificar los apartados que influyen en mayor grado en la cuantía de este resultado.MétodosSe realizó una descripción de costes. El programa post-exposición se modelizó en un árbol de decisión que combinaba probabilidades (porcentaje de cada tipo de fuente en función de su positividad a los tres virus e inmunización del accidentado frente a hepatitis B) y costes monetarios (pesetas del año 1994). Estos costes fueron: personal, laboratorio, farmacia, energéticos, limpieza, teléfono, material médico y de oficina, amortización y pérdidas productivas. Se realizó un análisis de sensibilidad en función del cumplimiento real del programa.ResultadosEl coste medio de cada inoculación fue de 39.564 ptas. (29.750 ptas. aplicando el análisis de sensibilidad), con un rango desde las 86.864 ptas. (fuente positiva a los tres virus y accidentado no inmunizado) a las 23.074 ptas. (fuente negativa a los tres virus). Si la fuente era hepatitis B positiva, el coste medio fue de 86.093 ptas. cuando el accidentado no estaba inmunizado y de 53.232 si lo estaba. La mayor parte del coste residió en las pruebas serológicas (rango del 72,8% al 87,7%).ConclusionesEl alto coste sugiere una evaluación adecuada del riesgo con el fin de evitar seguimientos innecesarios. El modelo utilizado permite conocer el coste de cada episodio potencialmente evitable y puede aplicarse en cualquier hospital con el objetivo de evaluar económicamente nuevos dispositivos preventivos.SummaryObjectivesThe aim of this study was to calculate the average cost of each hepatitis B, C and HIV follow-up carried out in the health personnel that have suffered an exposure to blood and body fluids and to estimate the cost for each of the different types of sources as wall as to identify the items that account for the main part of the cost.MethodsA cost analysis was carried out. The post-exposure programme was modelled in a decision tree combining probabilities (percentage of each type of source in dependence of its positivity for the three viruses and immunization state of the health personnel against hepatitis B) and monetary costs (pesetas from 1994). Costs included: salaries, laboratory, chemist, energy, cleaning, telephone, medical and office equipment, amortization and lost productivity. A sensitivity analysis was carried out with the real fulfillment of the programme.ResultsThe average cost was 39,564 ptas. (29,750 ptas. applying the sensitivity analysis), with a range from 86,864 ptas. (source positive for the three viruses and injured subject not immunized) to 23,074 ptas. (source negative for the three viruses). If the source was hepatitis B positive, the average cost was 86,093 ptas. when the injured subject was not immunized and 53,232 ptas. if he was immunized. Serologic tests account for the main part of the cost (range from 72.8% to 87.7%).ConclusionsHigh cost suggests an appropiate risk evaluation in order to avoid unnecessary follow-ups. The model used allows to know the cost of each potentially avoided episode and it could be used for any hospital in order to make an economical evaluation of new preventive devices

Evolution of the use of corticosteroids for the treatment of hospitalised COVID-19 patients in Spain between March and November 2020: SEMI-COVID national registry

Objectives: Since the results of the RECOVERY trial, WHO recommendations about the use of corticosteroids (CTs) in COVID-19 have changed. The aim of the study is to analyse the evolutive use of CTs in Spain during the pandemic to assess the potential influence of new recommendations. Material and methods: A retrospective, descriptive, and observational study was conducted on adults hospitalised due to COVID-19 in Spain who were included in the SEMI-COVID- 19 Registry from March to November 2020. Results: CTs were used in 6053 (36.21%) of the included patients. The patients were older (mean (SD)) (69.6 (14.6) vs. 66.0 (16.8) years; p < 0.001), with hypertension (57.0% vs. 47.7%; p < 0.001), obesity (26.4% vs. 19.3%; p < 0.0001), and multimorbidity prevalence (20.6% vs. 16.1%; p < 0.001). These patients had higher values (mean (95% CI)) of C-reactive protein (CRP) (86 (32.7-160) vs. 49.3 (16-109) mg/dL; p < 0.001), ferritin (791 (393-1534) vs. 470 (236- 996) µg/dL; p < 0.001), D dimer (750 (430-1400) vs. 617 (345-1180) µg/dL; p < 0.001), and lower Sp02/Fi02 (266 (91.1) vs. 301 (101); p < 0.001). Since June 2020, there was an increment in the use of CTs (March vs. September; p < 0.001). Overall, 20% did not receive steroids, and 40% received less than 200 mg accumulated prednisone equivalent dose (APED). Severe patients are treated with higher doses. The mortality benefit was observed in patients with oxygen saturation </=90%. Conclusions: Patients with greater comorbidity, severity, and inflammatory markers were those treated with CTs. In severe patients, there is a trend towards the use of higher doses. The mortality benefit was observed in patients with oxygen saturation </=90%

Epidemiological trends of HIV/HCV coinfection in Spain, 2015-2019

Altres ajuts: Spanish AIDS Research Network; European Funding for Regional Development (FEDER).Objectives: We assessed the prevalence of anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibodies and active HCV infection (HCV-RNA-positive) in people living with HIV (PLWH) in Spain in 2019 and compared the results with those of four similar studies performed during 2015-2018. Methods: The study was performed in 41 centres. Sample size was estimated for an accuracy of 1%. Patients were selected by random sampling with proportional allocation. Results: The reference population comprised 41 973 PLWH, and the sample size was 1325. HCV serostatus was known in 1316 PLWH (99.3%), of whom 376 (28.6%) were HCV antibody (Ab)-positive (78.7% were prior injection drug users); 29 were HCV-RNA-positive (2.2%). Of the 29 HCV-RNA-positive PLWH, infection was chronic in 24, it was acute/recent in one, and it was of unknown duration in four. Cirrhosis was present in 71 (5.4%) PLWH overall, three (10.3%) HCV-RNA-positive patients and 68 (23.4%) of those who cleared HCV after anti-HCV therapy (p = 0.04). The prevalence of anti-HCV antibodies decreased steadily from 37.7% in 2015 to 28.6% in 2019 (p < 0.001); the prevalence of active HCV infection decreased from 22.1% in 2015 to 2.2% in 2019 (p < 0.001). Uptake of anti-HCV treatment increased from 53.9% in 2015 to 95.0% in 2019 (p < 0.001). Conclusions: In Spain, the prevalence of active HCV infection among PLWH at the end of 2019 was 2.2%, i.e. 90.0% lower than in 2015. Increased exposure to DAAs was probably the main reason for this sharp reduction. Despite the high coverage of treatment with direct-acting antiviral agents, HCV-related cirrhosis remains significant in this population

Search for boosted diphoton resonances in the 10 to 70 GeV mass range using 138 fb−1 of 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for diphoton resonances in the mass range between 10 and 70 GeV with the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is presented. The analysis is based on pp collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb−1 at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded from 2015 to 2018. Previous searches for diphoton resonances at the LHC have explored masses down to 65 GeV, finding no evidence of new particles. This search exploits the particular kinematics of events with pairs of closely spaced photons reconstructed in the detector, allowing examination of invariant masses down to 10 GeV. The presented strategy covers a region previously unexplored at hadron colliders because of the experimental challenges of recording low-energy photons and estimating the backgrounds. No significant excess is observed and the reported limits provide the strongest bound on promptly decaying axion-like particles coupling to gluons and photons for masses between 10 and 70 GeV

Evidence for the charge asymmetry in pp → tt¯ production at s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Inclusive and differential measurements of the top–antitop (tt¯) charge asymmetry Att¯C and the leptonic asymmetry Aℓℓ¯C are presented in proton–proton collisions at s√ = 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The measurement uses the complete Run 2 dataset, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1, combines data in the single-lepton and dilepton channels, and employs reconstruction techniques adapted to both the resolved and boosted topologies. A Bayesian unfolding procedure is performed to correct for detector resolution and acceptance effects. The combined inclusive tt¯ charge asymmetry is measured to be Att¯C = 0.0068 ± 0.0015, which differs from zero by 4.7 standard deviations. Differential measurements are performed as a function of the invariant mass, transverse momentum and longitudinal boost of the tt¯ system. Both the inclusive and differential measurements are found to be compatible with the Standard Model predictions, at next-to-next-to-leading order in quantum chromodynamics perturbation theory with next-to-leading-order electroweak corrections. The measurements are interpreted in the framework of the Standard Model effective field theory, placing competitive bounds on several Wilson coefficients

Search for heavy resonances decaying into a Z or W boson and a Higgs boson in final states with leptons and b-jets in 139 fb−1 of pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This article presents a search for new resonances decaying into a Z or W boson and a 125 GeV Higgs boson h, and it targets the νν¯¯¯bb¯¯, ℓ+ℓ−bb¯¯, or ℓ±νbb¯¯ final states, where ℓ = e or μ, in proton-proton collisions at s√ = 13 TeV. The data used correspond to a total integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1 collected by the ATLAS detector during Run 2 of the LHC at CERN. The search is conducted by examining the reconstructed invariant or transverse mass distributions of Zh or Wh candidates for evidence of a localised excess in the mass range from 220 GeV to 5 TeV. No significant excess is observed and 95% confidence-level upper limits between 1.3 pb and 0.3 fb are placed on the production cross section times branching fraction of neutral and charged spin-1 resonances and CP-odd scalar bosons. These limits are converted into constraints on the parameter space of the Heavy Vector Triplet model and the two-Higgs-doublet model

Search for third-generation vector-like leptons in pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for vector-like leptons in multilepton (two, three, or four-or-more electrons plus muons) final states with zero or more hadronic τ-lepton decays is presented. The search is performed using a dataset corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. To maximize the separation of signal and background, a machine-learning classifier is used. No excess of events is observed beyond the Standard Model expectation. Using a doublet vector-like lepton model, vector-like leptons coupling to third-generation Standard Model leptons are excluded in the mass range from 130 GeV to 900 GeV at the 95% confidence level, while the highest excluded mass is expected to be 970 GeV

Inclusive-photon production and its dependence on photon isolation in pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV using 139 fb−1 of ATLAS data

Measurements of differential cross sections are presented for inclusive isolated-photon production in pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV provided by the LHC and using 139 fb−1 of data recorded by the ATLAS experiment. The cross sections are measured as functions of the photon transverse energy in different regions of photon pseudorapidity. The photons are required to be isolated by means of a fixed-cone method with two different cone radii. The dependence of the inclusive-photon production on the photon isolation is investigated by measuring the fiducial cross sections as functions of the isolation-cone radius and the ratios of the differential cross sections with different radii in different regions of photon pseudorapidity. The results presented in this paper constitute an improvement with respect to those published by ATLAS earlier: the measurements are provided for different isolation radii and with a more granular segmentation in photon pseudorapidity that can be exploited in improving the determination of the proton parton distribution functions. These improvements provide a more in-depth test of the theoretical predictions. Next-to-leading-order QCD predictions from JETPHOX and SHERPA and next-to-next-to-leading-order QCD predictions from NNLOJET are compared to the measurements, using several parameterisations of the proton parton distribution functions. The measured cross sections are well described by the fixed-order QCD predictions within the experimental and theoretical uncertainties in most of the investigated phase-space region

Measurements of Zγ+jets differential cross sections in pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Differential cross-section measurements of Zγ production in association with hadronic jets are presented, using the full 139 fb−1 dataset of s√ = 13 TeV proton–proton collisions collected by the ATLAS detector during Run 2 of the LHC. Distributions are measured using events in which the Z boson decays leptonically and the photon is usually radiated from an initial-state quark. Measurements are made in both one and two observables, including those sensitive to the hard scattering in the event and others which probe additional soft and collinear radiation. Different Standard Model predictions, from both parton-shower Monte Carlo simulation and fixed-order QCD calculations, are compared with the measurements. In general, good agreement is observed between data and predictions from MATRIX and MiNNLOPS, as well as next-to-leading-order predictions from MADGRAPH5_AMC@NLO and SHERPA