Changing climate, changing decisions : understanding climate adaptation decision-making and the way science supports it

Tese de doutoramento, Ciências do Ambiente, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, 2015The current pace of global mitigation efforts brings about growing concerns about climate change impacts. In turn, even in developed countries, most societies are often vulnerable to present day climate and will most likely see those vulnerabilities exacerbated by future climate trends and extremes, accentuating the need for a coherent response through adaptation efforts. Such efforts will always have to be developed in face of uncertainty. The deeply rooted uncertainties that underpin climate change adaptation as a scientific, political and societal endeavour will always be a part of adaptation decision-making processes. It is fundamental that decision-makers and scientific communities find common ground that allows to exchange the necessary knowledge on “why to adapt”, but also to develop the required frameworks, methods and tools that sustain a clearer understanding of “what to adapt” and “how to adapt” under long-term, uncertain circumstances. This thesis is about climate adaptation decisions and decision-making processes, and how science supports and equips them to handle uncertainty. The assessment and conclusions presented in this thesis reflect research that was transdisciplinary in nature and that included working close to decision-makers in their real-life contexts. The main objective of this thesis is to enrich the understanding of how adaptation decision-making takes place in those contexts and how science can better support it in dealing with associated uncertainties. Three key research questions underpin this thesis. The first deals with the issue whether transdisciplinarity in adaptation research is a fundamental condition for practical adaptation decision-making. This thesis argues that although transdisciplinarity may be a necessary condition, it is not a sufficient one to assure that “good” or “better” real-life adaptation decisions are made. Participatory, practice-oriented research is of outmost importance, but it has to be complemented by a more fundamental inquiry and concept development from disciplinary sciences and with changes in the operational and/or normative standards associated with long-lasting decisions. Transdisciplinarity has been framed as a potential solution for the gap between knowledge production and practical adaptation action. However, a more fundamental change in the way adaptation decision-making processes are framed, one that goes beyond the simple assimilation of the perceived needs of decision-makers, may be required to bridge that challenge. The second question reflects the current gap in the understanding of what climate adaptation decisions are and how they relate to existing or perceived uncertainties. Using a set of selected case-studies spanning across a wide range of sectors and different real-life decisions, this thesis reviewed and analysed how adaptation decisions are being made in practice, their knowledge requirements, and the implications that dealing with uncertainty has regarding their outcomes. In order to consider all steps of the adaptation decision-making process, interviews were conducted with both decision-makers and those involved in supporting them via science and other activities. Results demonstrate the importance of considering both dimensions and respective contexts in dealing with uncertainty. However, results also suggest that uncertainty-management is not a guarantee of action, and that the current framing of adaptation decision-making is still very much tied to a rational-linear view, both from the policy and decision-making perspective, as in the science and decision-support standpoint. This leads to a third research question that aims to identify if current adaptation decision-making frameworks are well equipped to characterise, support adaptation and enhance adaptation action under uncertainty. In the context of this thesis, a decision-making framework is a holistic set of concepts, perspectives or approaches that support the entire adaptation decisionmaking process. This thesis argues that such frameworks should necessarily include and integrate all dimensions that naturally occur in an adaptation process namely, the decision-objectives, the decision-support, the decision-making and the respective decision-outcomes. Current frameworks have been mostly framed from a research and expert perspective that follows a rational approach to decision-making under uncertainty. Under such perspective, it is assumed that by providing information and decision-support practical adaptation decisions will be made. This appears to be sufficient to deal with strategic decisions that look into improving adaptive capacity, but seems no longer fit-for-purpose when it comes to operational decisions, the type generally required to advance vulnerability-reducing actions.Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (cE3c, project Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Modelling - CCIAM); Wageningen University and Research Centr

Strychnine Intoxication: A Case Report

Strychnine acts as an inhibitor of post-synaptic neuronal inhibition and intoxication leads to distinct clinical manifestations which may culminate in death. Since its commercialization is prohibited in most countries, cases of strychnine intoxication are now rare. We present a case of an elderly patient who voluntarily ingested a white powder thought to be strychnine. He developed myoclonus, startle response, and episodes of generalized muscle contractions accompanied by respiratory arrest in one occasion. Diazepam, valproic acid and supportive treatments were able to control manifestations, however the patient died after 2 days. Our aim is to alert clinicians that, despite its rarity, strychnine intoxication may still be seen in emergency departments, and clinical outcome can be influenced by rapid recognition and timely institution of adequate treatment

Apreço pelo local de residência: dos conceitos básicos à sua operacionalização

Resumo indisponível

Are European decision-makers preparing for high-end climate change?

Despite the Paris Agreement target of holding global temperature increases 1.5 to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, high-end climate change (HECC) scenarios going beyond 4 °C are becoming increasingly plausible. HECC may imply increasing climate variability and extremes as well as the triggering of tipping points, posing further difficulties for adaptation. This paper compares the outcomes of four concurrent European case studies (EU, Hungary, Portugal, and Scotland) that explore the individual and institutional conditions, and the information used to underpin adaptation-related decision-making in the context of HECC. The focus is on (i) whether HECC scenarios are used in current adaptation-related decision-making processes; (ii) the role of uncertainty and how climate and non-climate information is used (or not) in these processes; and (iii) the information types (including socio-economic drivers) commonly used and their limitations in relation to HECC scenarios. Decision-makers perceive HECC as having a low probability or distant occurrence and do not routinely account for HECC scenarios within existing climate actions. Decision-makers also perceive non-climate drivers as at least as important, in many cases more important, than climate change alone. Whilst more information about the implications of particular sectoral and cross-sectoral impacts is needed, climate change uncertainty is not a significant barrier to decision-making. Further understanding of individual and institutional challenges brought about by the ‘squeeze’ between adapting to HECC scenarios or to lower levels of temperature change (as those agreed in Paris) is essential to better contextualise the use of climate change information.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Framework for Climate Change Adaptation of Agriculture and Forestry in Mediterranean Climate Regions

Planning the adaptation of agriculture and forestry landscapes to climate change remains challenging due to the need for integrating substantial amounts of information. This information ranges from climate scenarios, geographical site information, socio-economic data and several possible adaptation measures. Thus, there is an urgent need to have a framework that is capable of organizing adaptation strategies and measures in the agriculture and forestry sectors in Mediterranean climatic regions. Additionally, this framework should provide a cause effect relation with climate vulnerability to adequately support the development of adaptation planning at municipal and local (farm) level. In this context, we propose to test and evaluate a framework for climate adaptation of the agriculture and forestry sectors, based on the local causal-effect relation between adaptation strategies and measures and the level of vulnerability reduction achieved for Mediterranean areas. The framework was developed based on the combination of the DPSIR (Driving forces, Pressures, State, Impacts, Responses) and Vulnerability frameworks and reviewed 162 practical adaptation measures, further organized into strategies, complemented by a set of efficacy indicators. The framework was tested with 70 stakeholders in six stakeholder workshops for the planning of two farms and one municipal climate adaptation study, that are now in actual implementation and monitoring. The framework is composed by a set of eight adaptation strategies in which adaptation measures are clustered and assessed using efficacy indicators. In the evaluation of the adaptation framework, 96% of stakeholders considered its content as good or very good and 89% considered the final outcomes as good or very good. Finally, the framework was also used to assess and compare the adaptation strategies and measures presented in the climate adaptation plans of the three case studies. On average, 52.2% of the adaptation measures selected by the three case studies are dedicated to Ecosystem Resilience, 30.9% to Adaptive Capacity, 9.1% to Microclimates, 7.4% to Protection, and 0.3% to Mitigation strategies. This framework was considered effective in supporting adaptation planning at farm and municipal levels and useful to assess and compare adaptation plans in the frame of vulnerability reduction. Future studies can further contribute to support adaptation planning in these sectors by using, developing and streamlining this framework to additional and different socio-ecological contextsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?

We explore the individual and institutional conditions and the climate information used to underpin decision-making for adaptation to high-end climate change (HECC) scenarios in a land resource management context. HECC refers to extreme projections with global annual temperature increases of over 4 °C. We analyse whether HECC scenarios are used in the adaptation decision-making of stakeholders who will tackle the potential problem. We also explore whether the adaptation actions being considered are pertinent only to future climate change or whether other drivers and information types are used in decision-making (including non-climate drivers). We also address the role of knowledge uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. Decision-makers perceive HECC as having a low probability of occurrence and so they do not directly account for HECC within existing actions to address climate change. Such actions focus on incremental rather than transformative solutions in which non-climate drivers are at least as important, and in many cases more important, than climate change alone. This reflects the need to accommodate multiple concerns and low risk options (i.e. incremental change). Uncertainty in climate change information is not a significant barrier to decision-making and stakeholders indicated little need for more climate information in support of adaptation decision-making. There is, however, an identified need for more information about the implications of particular sectoral and cross-sectoral impacts under HECC scenarios. The outcomes of this study provide evidence to assist in contextualising climate change information by creating usable, cross-sectoral, decision-centred information

Downscaling Climate Change Impacts, Socio-Economic Implications and Alternative Adaptation Pathways for Islands and Outermost Regions

This book provides a comprehensive overview of the future scenarios of climate change and management concerns associated with climate change impacts on the blue economy of European islands and outermost regions. The publication collects major findings of the SOCLIMPACT project’s research outcomes, aiming to raise social awareness among policy-makers and industry about climate change consequences at local level, and provide knowledge-based information to support policy design, from local to national level. This comprehensive book will also assist students, scholars and practitioners to understand, conceptualize and effectively and responsibly manage climate change information and applied research. This book provides invaluable material for Blue Growth Management, theory and application, at all levels. This first edition includes up-to-date data, statistics, references, case material and figures of the 12 islands case studies. ¨Downscaling climate change impacts, socio-economic implications and alternative adaptation pathways for Islands and Outermost Regions¨ is a must-read book, given the accessible style and breadth and depth with which the topic is dealt. The book is an up-to-date synthesis of key knowledge on this area, written by a multidisciplinary group of experts on climate and economic modelling, and policy design

Transferability of decision-support tools

Charcoal is an important source of energy and income for millions of people in Africa. Its production often drives forest degradation and deforestation which have impacts on the local people that remain poorly understood. We present a novel methodology for analysing the contribution of woodland ecosystem services (ES) to rural well-being and poverty alleviation, which takes into account access mechanisms to ES, trade-offs between ES, and human response options. Using a participatory approach, a set of land use change scenarios were translated into a probabilistic model that integrates biophysical and social data. Our findings suggest that in highly forested areas woodland degradation does not have a critical impact on the local use of the three ES studied: charcoal, firewood and grass. Social factors show the largest impact on the quantity of charcoal produced, e.g. female-headed households experience the greatest barriers to access charcoal production. Participating in forest associations and diversifying income activities lead to greater charcoal production. Results show that charcoal production increases some aspects of well-being (e.g. household assets), but does not decrease acute multidimensional poverty. Great efforts are required to reach a charcoal production system that alleviates poverty, improves environmental sustainability, and provides a reliable charcoal supply.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Does B Corp Certification Affect the Pharmaceutical Industry?

Este estudo contribui para uma compreensão mais profunda do desenvolvimento sustentável organizacional numa perspetiva dos “stakeholders”, uma questão atual que tem estado mais presente na agenda política das Nações Unidas para 2030. A investigação estuda em particular as empresas que se submetem a práticas Ambientais, Sociais e de Governação pelo nome de B Corps, com a missão de "Profit for Purpose", de modo a gerar valor juntamente com os seus “stakeholders” e a forma como estas organizações têm um impacto positivo na indústria farmacêutica. Na presente investigação, foi realizada uma revisão bibliográfica que salienta a importância das práticas de Responsabilidade Social Corporativa nas organizações, utilizando uma amostra de B Corps farmacêuticas na Península Ibérica, como um canal para as organizações compreenderem a forma de operar dentro da indústria farmacêutica, alinhando os seus objetivos de lucro e desenvolvimento sustentável, de modo a criar valor. Complementando a revisão de literatura, foi realizado um estudo quantitativo com uma série de testes de regressão estatística que procuram compreender como a B Corp e outras variáveis explicativas, mencionadas no projeto, afetam a variação da medida da rentabilidade. Os resultados do estudo demonstram que ser B Corp tem um impacto significativo na variância da geração de fundos, o que significa que ser B Corps pode afetar a rentabilidade da empresa e, ao fazê-lo, gera valor junto dos seus “stakeholders”.This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the organizational sustainable development in a stakeholder perspective. A topical issue that has been more present in the political 2030 Agenda of the United Nations. The investigation studies in particular companies that undergo Environmental, Social and Governance practices by the name of B Corps, which are engaged in social and environmental activities, with a “Profit for Purpose” mission, to generate value alongside stakeholders, and how these organizations positively impact the pharmaceutical industry. In the present research, we perform a literature review that dives in on the importance of Corporate Social responsibility practices in organizations, using pharmaceutical B Corps in the Iberian Peninsula as a conduit for organizations to understand how they can operate within the pharmaceutical industry, balancing their profit and sustainable development goals, to create value. Complementing our Literature review, we perform quantitative study with a series of statistical regression tests that look to understand how B Corp and other explanatory variables, mentioned in the project, affect the variance of the measure of profitability. Our study findings contribute to the fact that B Corp does have a significant impact on the variance of fund generation, meaning that B Corps can affect the profitability of the company and while doing so, generating value with its stakeholders

Making adaptation decisions under uncertainty: Lessons from theory and practice

Adaptation practice is a novel and dynamic field. This is reflected by an as yet limited experience in how climate change uncertainties can be best dealt with in particular situations. This chapter synthesises the theoretical (scientific) and practical aspects of the preceding chapters, draws key lessons and provides guidance for those involved in supporting and ultimately making adaptation decisions. For this purpose a Common Frame of Reference (i.e. common definitions, principles and understandings) for dealing with uncertainties in climate adaptation decision-making is presented and applied to the analysis of the twelve real-life cases presented in this book. This framework intends to support complex climate adaptation decision-making processes that have to deal with uncertainties and still make informed decisions. Two central questions were addressed and applied to the cases reported: (i) how did the approaches used to deal with climate uncertainty influence the adaptation decision-making process and (ii) have better informed adaptation decisions been made because uncertainties were conscientiously addressed? The objective of this chapter is not to provide a simple checklist to be followed when facing uncertainties in a climate adaptation process but rather to inform and guide the reader by presenting key lessons and insights from real-life cases where decision-makers and those that support them have already faced and responded to climate adaptation related uncertainty.</p