Can a Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique be used for precipitation forecasts?

The Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique is a postprocessing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing direct model output errors. It differs from other ensemble analysis techniques by the use of an adequate weighting of the input forecast models in order to obtain a combined estimation of meteorological parameters. Weights are calculated by least-square minimization of the differences between the model and the observed field during a so-called training period. <br><br> Although it can be applied successfully on continuous parameters like temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and mean sea level pressure, the Multimodel SuperEnsemble also gives good results when applied on the precipitation, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods. Here we present a methodology for the Multimodel precipitation forecasts with a careful ensemble dressing via the precipitation PDF estimation

Can a Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique be used for precipitation forecasts?

Abstract. The Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique is a postprocessing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing direct model output errors. It differs from other ensemble analysis techniques by the use of an adequate weighting of the input forecast models in order to obtain a combined estimation of meteorological parameters. Weights are calculated by least-square minimization of the differences between the model and the observed field during a so-called training period. Although it can be applied successfully on continuous parameters like temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and mean sea level pressure, the Multimodel SuperEnsemble also gives good results when applied on the precipitation, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods. Here we present a methodology for the Multimodel precipitation forecasts with a careful ensemble dressing via the precipitation PDF estimation

‘As to the education of youth’: the novels of Charlotte Smith and the Eighteenth-century and romantic education debates

This work examines Charlotte Smith’s novels through the lens of her engagement with the eighteenth-century education debates. Despite the burgeoning scholarship on Smith’s works and her evident interest in education, as demonstrated in her didactic works for children, this is an area as yet unexplored in Smith scholarship. It highlights the significance of Smith’s voice in the education debates as she provides a different perspective on education, upbringing, and their outcomes: the product of childhood, or the adult. Not only this, but, as a single mother of twelve children, whom she strived to raise, educate, and find places in the world for throughout her career, Smith offers a unique perspective on late-eighteenth-century education not offered by other, more prominent, female voices such as Maria Edgeworth, Anna Laetitia Barbauld, and Priscilla Wakefield. By examining Smith’s views on education in her novels, it also offers another perspective on Smith’s interest in education as it focuses on her novels rather than the didactic fiction she produced for children. This work has found that Smith was concerned with the outcomes of both male and female education. She explores theories for both throughout her novels and examines in detail what she perceives to be the outcomes of popular educational theories. She is critical of certain educational philosophies and demonstrates herself to be a staunch advocate of others – though often with additional caveats. Smith’s unique perspective on education and upbringing offers significant food for thought for both scholars of Smith’s works and scholars of eighteenth-century education

Kinetics of the neutralizing antibody response to respiratory syncytial virus infections in a birth cohort

The kinetics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) neutralizing antibodies following birth, primary and secondary infections are poorly defined. The aims of the study were to measure and compare neutralizing antibody responses at different time points in a birth cohort followed-up over three RSV epidemics. Rural Kenyan children, recruited at birth between 2002 and 2003, were monitored for RSV infection over three epidemic seasons. Cord and 3-monthly sera, and acute and convalescent sera following RSV infection, were assayed in 28 children by plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT). Relative to the neutralizing antibody titers of pre-exposure control sera (1.8 log10 PRNT), antibody titers following primary infection were (i) no different in sera collected between 0 and 0.4 months post-infection (1.9 log10 PRNT, P = 0.146), (ii) higher in sera collected between 0.5 and 0.9 (2.8 log10 PRNT, P < 0.0001), 1.0–1.9 (2.5 log10 PRNT, P < 0.0001), and 2.0–2.9 (2.3 log10 PRNT, P < 0.001) months post-infection, and (iii) no different in sera collected at between 3.0 and 3.9 months post-infection (2.0 log10 PRNT, P = 0.052). The early serum neutralizing response to secondary infection (3.02 log10 PRNT) was significantly greater than the early primary response (1.9 log10 PRNT, P < 0.0001). Variation in population-level virus transmission corresponded with changes in the mean cohort-level neutralizing titers. It is concluded that following primary RSV infection the neutralizing antibody response declines to pre-infection levels rapidly (∼3 months) which may facilitate repeat infection. The kinetics of the aggregate levels of acquired antibody reflect seasonal RSV occurrence, age, and infection history

Forbush decreases and turbulence levels at CME fronts

We seek to estimate the average level of MHD turbulence near coronal mass ejection (CME) fronts as they propagate from the Sun to the Earth. We examine the cosmic ray data from the GRAPES-3 tracking muon telescope at Ooty, together with the data from other sources for three well observed Forbush decrease events. Each of these events are associated with frontside halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and near-Earth magnetic clouds. In each case, we estimate the magnitude of the Forbush decrease using a simple model for the diffusion of high energy protons through the largely closed field lines enclosing the CME as it expands and propagates from the Sun to the Earth. We use estimates of the cross-field diffusion coefficient $D_{\perp}$ derived from published results of extensive Monte Carlo simulations of cosmic rays propagating through turbulent magnetic fields. Our method helps constrain the ratio of energy density in the turbulent magnetic fields to that in the mean magnetic fields near the CME fronts. This ratio is found to be $\sim$ 2% for the 11 April 2001 Forbush decrease event, $\sim$ 6% for the 20 November 2003 Forbush decrease event and $\sim$ 249% for the much more energetic event of 29 October 2003.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics. (Abstract abridged) Typos correcte

Task constraints distinguish perspective inferences from perspective use during discourse interpretation in a false belief task

Interpreting other peoples’ actions relies on an understanding of their current mental states (e.g. beliefs, desires and intentions). In this paper, we distinguish between listeners’ ability to infer others’ perspectives and their explicit use of this knowledge to predict subsequent actions. In a visual-world study, two groups of participants (passive observers vs. active participants) watched short videos, depicting transfer events, where one character (‘Jane’) either held a true or false belief about an object’s location. We tracked participants’ eye-movements around the final visual scene, time-locked to related auditory descriptions (e.g. “Jane will look for the chocolates in the container on the left”.). Results showed that active participants had already inferred the character’s belief in the 1 s preview period prior to auditory onset, before it was possible to use this information to predict an outcome. Moreover, they used this inference to correctly anticipate reference to the object’s initial location on false belief trials at the earliest possible point (i.e. from “Jane” onwards). In contrast, passive observers only showed evidence of a belief inference from the onset of “Jane”, and did not show reliable use of this inference to predict Jane’s behaviour on false belief trials until much later, when the location (“left/right”) was auditorily available. These results show that active engagement in a task activates earlier inferences about others’ perspectives, and drives immediate use of this information to anticipate others’ actions, compared to passive observers, who are susceptible to influences from egocentric or reality biases. Finally, we review evidence that using other peoples’ perspectives to predict their behaviour is more cognitively effortful than simply using one’s own

On the Utility and Disutility of JEBAR

The usefulness of the concept of JEBAR, the joint effect of baroclinicity and relief, in large-scale ocean dynamics is critically analyzed. The authors address two questions. Does the JEBAR term properly characterize the joint impact of stratification and bottom topography on the ocean circulation? Do estimates of the JEBAR term from observational data allow reliable diagnostic calculations? The authors give a negative answer to the first question. The JEBAR term need not give a true measure of the effect of bottom relief in a stratified ocean. A simple two-layer model provides examples. As to the second question, it is demonstrated that the large-scale pattern of the transport streamfunction is captured by the smoothed solution, especially with the Mellor et al. formulation of the JEBAR term. However, the calculated velocity field is very noisy and the relative errors are large

PD-L1 testing for lung cancer in the UK: recognizing the challenges for implementation.

A new approach to the management of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) has recently emerged that works by manipulating the immune checkpoint controlled by programmed death receptor 1 (PD-1) and its ligand programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1). Several drugs targeting PD-1 (pembrolizumab and nivolumab) or PD-L1 (atezolizumab, durvalumab, and avelumab) have been approved or are in the late stages of development. Inevitably, the introduction of these drugs will put pressure on healthcare systems, and there is a need to stratify patients to identify those who are most likely to benefit from such treatment. There is evidence that responsiveness to PD-1 inhibitors may be predicted by expression of PD-L1 on neoplastic cells. Hence, there is considerable interest in using PD-L1 immunohistochemical staining to guide the use of PD-1-targeted treatments in patients with NSCLC. This article reviews the current knowledge about PD-L1 testing, and identifies current research requirements. Key factors to consider include the source and timing of sample collection, pre-analytical steps (sample tracking, fixation, tissue processing, sectioning, and tissue prioritization), analytical decisions (choice of biomarker assay/kit and automated staining platform, with verification of standardized assays or validation of laboratory-devised techniques, internal and external quality assurance, and audit), and reporting and interpretation of the results. This review addresses the need for integration of PD-L1 immunohistochemistry with other tests as part of locally agreed pathways and protocols. There remain areas of uncertainty, and guidance should be updated regularly as new information becomes available

Incidence and severity of respiratory syncytial virus pneumonia in rural Kenyan children identified through hospital surveillance

Background.Although necessary for developing a rationale for vaccination, the burden of severe respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease in children in resource‐poor settings remains poorly defined. Methods.We conducted prospective surveillance of severe and very severe pneumonia in children aged <5 years admitted from 2002 through 2007 to Kilifi district hospital in coastal Kenya. Nasal specimens were screened for RSV antigen by immunofluorescence. Incidence rates were estimated for the well‐defined population. Results.Of 25,149 hospital admissions, 7359 patients (29%) had severe or very severe pneumonia, of whom 6026 (82%) were enrolled. RSV prevalence was 15% (20% among infants) and 27% during epidemics (32% among infants). The proportion of case patients aged 3 months was 65%, and the proportion aged 6 months was 43%. Average annual hospitalization rates were 293 hospitalizations per 100,000 children aged <5 years (95% confidence interval, 271–371 hospitalizations per 100,000 children aged <5 years) and 1107 hospitalizations per 100,000 infants (95% confidence interval, 1012–1211 hospitalizations per 100,000 infants). Hospital admission rates were double in the region close to the hospital. Few patients with RSV infection had life‐threatening clinical features or concurrent serious illnesses, and the associated mortality was 2.2%. Conclusions.In this low‐income setting, rates of hospital admission with RSV‐associated pneumonia are substantial; they are comparable to estimates from the United States but considerably underestimate the burden in the full community. An effective vaccine for children aged >2 months (outside the age group of poor responders) could prevent a large portion of RSV disease. Severity data suggest that the justification for RSV vaccination will be based on the prevention of morbidity, not mortality