Monte Carlo study of the hull distribution for the q=1 Brauer model

We study a special case of the Brauer model in which every path of the model has weight q=1. The model has been studied before as a solvable lattice model and can be viewed as a Lorentz lattice gas. The paths of the model are also called self-avoiding trails. We consider the model in a triangle with boundary conditions such that one of the trails must cross the triangle from a corner to the opposite side. Motivated by similarities between this model, SLE(6) and critical percolation, we investigate the distribution of the hull generated by this trail (the set of points on or surrounded by the trail) up to the hitting time of the side of the triangle opposite the starting point. Our Monte Carlo results are consistent with the hypothesis that for system size tending to infinity, the hull distribution is the same as that of a Brownian motion with perpendicular reflection on the boundary.Comment: 21 pages, 9 figure

Bond percolation on isoradial graphs: criticality and universality

In an investigation of percolation on isoradial graphs, we prove the criticality of canonical bond percolation on isoradial embeddings of planar graphs, thus extending celebrated earlier results for homogeneous and inhomogeneous square, triangular, and other lattices. This is achieved via the star-triangle transformation, by transporting the box-crossing property across the family of isoradial graphs. As a consequence, we obtain the universality of these models at the critical point, in the sense that the one-arm and 2j-alternating-arm critical exponents (and therefore also the connectivity and volume exponents) are constant across the family of such percolation processes. The isoradial graphs in question are those that satisfy certain weak conditions on their embedding and on their track system. This class of graphs includes, for example, isoradial embeddings of periodic graphs, and graphs derived from rhombic Penrose tilings.Comment: In v2: extended title, and small changes in the tex

Introducing GFWED: The Global Fire Weather Database

The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the mostly widely used fire danger rating system in the world. We have developed a global database of daily FWI System calculations, beginning in 1980, called the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED) gridded to a spatial resolution of 0.5 latitude by 2-3 longitude. Input weather data were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and two different estimates of daily precipitation from rain gauges over land. FWI System Drought Code calculations from the gridded data sets were compared to calculations from individual weather station data for a representative set of 48 stations in North, Central and South America, Europe, Russia,Southeast Asia and Australia. Agreement between gridded calculations and the station-based calculations tended to be most different at low latitudes for strictly MERRA based calculations. Strong biases could be seen in either direction: MERRA DC over the Mato Grosso in Brazil reached unrealistically high values exceeding DCD1500 during the dry season but was too low over Southeast Asia during the dry season. These biases are consistent with those previously identified in MERRAs precipitation, and they reinforce the need to consider alternative sources of precipitation data. GFWED can be used for analyzing historical relationships between fire weather and fire activity at continental and global scales, in identifying large-scale atmosphereocean controls on fire weather, and calibration of FWI-based fire prediction models

Measuring and Comparing Party Ideology and Heterogeneity

Estimates of party ideological positions in Western Democracies yield useful party-level information, but lack the ability to provide insight into intraparty politics. In this paper, we generate comparable measures of latent individual policy positions from elite survey data which enable analysis of elite-level party ideology and heterogeneity. This approach has advantages over both expert surveys and approaches based on behavioral data, such as roll call voting and is directly relevant to the study of party cohesion. We generate a measure of elite positions for several European countries using a common space scaling approach and demonstrate its validity as a measure of party ideology. We then apply these data to determine the sources of party heterogeneity, focusing on the role of intraparty competition in electoral systems, nomination rules, and party goals. We find that policy-seeking parties and centralized party nomination rules reduce party heterogeneity. While intraparty competition has no effect, the presence of these electoral rules conditions the effect of district magnitude

Exacerbated fires in Mediterranean Europe due to anthropogenic warming projected with non-stationary climate-fire models

The observed trend towards warmer and drier conditions in southern Europe is projected to continue in the next decades, possibly leading to increased risk of large fires. However, an assessment of climate change impacts on fires at and above the 1.5 °C Paris target is still missing. Here, we estimate future summer burned area in Mediterranean Europe under 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming scenarios, accounting for possible modifications of climate-fire relationships under changed climatic conditions owing to productivity alterations. We found that such modifications could be beneficial, roughly halving the fire-intensifying signals. In any case, the burned area is robustly projected to increase. The higher the warming level is, the larger is the increase of burned area, ranging from ~40% to ~100% across the scenarios. Our results indicate that significant benefits would be obtained if warming were limited to well below 2 °C

Probability Theory in Statistical Physics, Percolation, and Other Random Topics: The Work of C. Newman

In the introduction to this volume, we discuss some of the highlights of the research career of Chuck Newman. This introduction is divided into two main sections, the first covering Chuck's work in statistical mechanics and the second his work in percolation theory, continuum scaling limits, and related topics.Comment: 38 pages (including many references), introduction to Festschrift in honor of C.M. Newma

Assessing forest availability for wood supply in Europe

14 Pág.The quantification of forests available for wood supply (FAWS) is essential for decision-making with regard to the maintenance and enhancement of forest resources and their contribution to the global carbon cycle. The provision of harmonized forest statistics is necessary for the development of forest associated policies and to support decision-making. Based on the National Forest Inventory (NFI) data from 13 European countries, we quantify and compare the areas and aboveground dry biomass (AGB) of FAWS and forest not available for wood supply (FNAWS) according to national and reference definitions by determining the restrictions and associated thresholds considered at country level to classify forests as FAWS or FNAWS. FAWS represent between 75 and 95 % of forest area and AGB for most of the countries in this study. Economic restrictions are the main factor limiting the availability of forests for wood supply, accounting for 67 % of the total FNAWS area and 56 % of the total FNAWS AGB, followed by environmental restrictions. Profitability, slope and accessibility as economic restrictions, and protected areas as environmental restrictions are the factors most frequently considered to distinguish between FAWS and FNAWS. With respect to the area of FNAWS associated with each type of restriction, an overlap among the restrictions of 13.7 % was identified. For most countries, the differences in the FNAWS areas and AGB estimates between national and reference definitions ranged from 0 to 5 %. These results highlight the applicability and reliability of a FAWS reference definition for most of the European countries studied, thereby facilitating a consistent approach to assess forests available for supply for the purpose of international reporting.This research was supported by the Specific contract n. 18 “Use of National Forest Inventories data to estimate area and above ground biomass in European forests not available for wood supply” in the context of the Framework contract for the provision of forest data and services supporting the European Forest Data Centre 2012/ S 78-127532 of 21/04/2012 of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission; the EG-013-72 agreement of the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAPA) and the INIA belonging to the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MICINN); and the project No.APVV-15-0265 granted by the Slovak Research and Development Agency.Peer reviewe