This is what the US leading indicators lead

We propose an optimal filter to transform the Conference Board Composite Leading Index (CLI) into recession probabilities in the US economy. We also analyze the CLI's accuracy at anticipating US output growth. We compare the predictive performance of linear, VAR extensions of smooth transition regression and switching regimes, probit, nonparametric models and conclude that a combination of the switching regimes and nonparametric forecasts is the best strategy at predicting both the NBER business cycle schedule and GDP growth. This confirms the usefulness of CLI, even in a real-time analysis. JEL Classification: C32, C53leading indicators, optimal forecasting rule, turning points

Are the High-growth Recovery Periods Over?

We present evidence about the loss of the so-called ?plucking effect?, that is, a high-growth phase of the cycle typically observed at the end of recessions. This result matches the popular belief, presented informally by different authors, that the current recession will have permanent effects, or that the current recession will have an L shape versus the old-time recessions that have always had a V shape. Furthermore, we show that the loss of the ?plucking effect? can explain part of the Great Moderation. We postulate that these two phenomena may be due to changes in inventory management brought about by improvements in information and communications technologies.Business cycle characteristics, Great Moderation, High-growth recovery

An Overview of the Distribution of the Parabathynellidae (Crustacea, Syncarida Bathynellacea) on the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic Islands

[EN] This paper reviews all the knowledge on the presence and distribution of 26 species of the family Parabathynellidae Noodt, 1964 (Crustacea, Syncarida, Bathynellacea) on the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic Islands. The different genera, subgenera and species distributions are subjected to a basic analysis. The presence of these taxa in different subterranean aquatic habitats (caves, springs, wells and interstitial environment) is also discussed. The most sampled habitat was the interstitial environment (45%); the least sampled habitat was springs (5%). The most commonly found genus was Iberobathynella Schminke, 1973 (54%) and the rarest was Guadalopebathynella Camacho & Serban, 1998 (0.7%) All the knowledge on these taxa in the study area, in Europe and in the world is compared and evaluated. More species of the Parabathynellidae live on the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic Islands than in any other part of the world (26 species). Iberobathynella is a highly diversified genus endemic to the Iberian peninsula. Its diversity is comparable to another genus in the order, Hexabathynella Schminke, 1972, which also has 18 described species. However, Hexabathynella has a cosmopolitan distribution.[ES] En este trabajo se reune y actualiza el conocimiento acerca de la presencia y distribución de 26 especies de batinelas de la familia Parabathynellidae (Crustacea, Syncarida, Bathynellacea) en la Peninsula Ibérica y las Islas Baleares. Se analiza de forma crítica la distribución de los diferentes géneros, subgéneros y especies y se discute acerca de la presencia de los mismos en diferentes habitat acuáticos subterráneos (cuevas, fuentes o surgencias, pozos y medio intersticial asociado a ríos epigeos). El mayor número de puntos de muestreo corresponde al medio intersticial (45% del total) y en él se encuentran los cinco géneros presentes en el área de estudio; las surgencias constituyen el conjunto con menos puntos de muestreo (5%) y en ellas solo se encuentran los géneros Iberobathynella (86%) y Hexaiberobathynella Camacho & Serban, 1998 (14%). El género Iberobathynella es el más común (54% de las muestras) y vive en todos los medios. El género Guadalopebathynella sólo se ha encontrado en el medio intersticial de un río. Se valora comparativamente el conocimiento de estos taxa en el área estudiada, en Europa y en el mundo. En la Península Ibérica y las Islas Baleares vive el mayor porcentaje de especies de todo el mundo (24%) y todas ellas son endémicas de esta zona. El género Iberobathynella, endémico de la Península Ibérica, cuenta con 18 especies conocidas y tal diversificación sólo se da, en todo el orden, dentro del género Hexabathynella (18 especies) que es el único género cosmopolita de Bathynellacea.This work was supported by projects REN2000-2040 GLO, EVK2-CT-2001- 00121 (PASCALIS) and Convenio Junta de Castilla y León- CSIC (2002-2004).Peer reviewe

3D printer assembly project and user manual

L'extensió d'aquest projecte es basa a explicar de manera clara tots els passos que es necessita per a l'execució del muntatge, posada en marxa i proves d'impressió d'una impressora 3D i l'elaboració del seu manual. El desenvolupament comença amb l'adquisició d'un kit d'impressora 3D, a elecci ó de l'usuari que dugui a terme el muntatge, per a això es proporcionarà pautes a tenir en compte per a l'elecció de la seva impressora 3D. Tingui's present que l'elaboració del manual d'usuari d'aquest projecte estarà enfocada cap a un tipus concret d'un a impressora, però, no obstant això, aquest manual servirà d'il·lustració per a iniciarse en la construcció d'una impressora 3D i conèixer la tecnologia que porten incorporades. Una vegada s'hagi seleccionat la impressora, es procedirà a realitzar l'asse mblatge, la configuració i correcció de les fallades que vagin sorgint durant la seva instal·lació, i un parell de proves d'impressió, per a la seva posterior valoració de qualitat visual de la impressió i les possibles millores que es pugui implementar en la impressora 3D seleccionada per l'autor. Durant tot el desenvolupament del muntatge s'ha seguit una línia d'allò més transparent possible per a detallar de manera concisa tot el procediment de l'assemblatge de la impressora, i al seu torn s'ha anat elab orant un manual pràctic de muntatge, on es detalla el procés a seguir de tot l'assemblatge, i les solucions proposades per l'autor per a corregir les incidències que vagin sorgint. D'altra banda, s'ha elaborat el pressupost d'execució d'aquest projecte, on es descriuen tots els costos que estan associades a l'execució d'aquest projecte. I també es detallen les implicacions ambientals i social, en la qual es deixen fonaments sòlids del benefici ambiental i social que aporta aquest projecte. Per a finalitzar, es descriuen les línies de treballs futurs, on es reflecteixen les recomanacions de millores, per a la impressora 3D seleccionada per l'autor. I en les conclusions es deixen constància dels resultats obtinguts, aquests resultats consisteixen a haver complert l'objectiu d'aquest projecte, que consisteix a haver completat l'assemblatge de la impressora, i efectuar correctament les proves d'impressió. També es detallen les recomanacions de continuïtat d'aquest projecte.

Comparative study of gonadal development of Ruditapes philippinarum (Adams and Reeve) and Ruditapes decussatus (L.) (Mollusca: Bivalvia): Influence of temperature

Laboratory experiments were used to study the influence of temperature on the reproductive behaviour of two species of clam, Ruditapes decussatus and Ruditapes philippinarum, during their adaptation to the temperature conditions of Galician coastal waters. In both species the rate of gonadal development was directly related to the increase in temperature. At 14ºC the reproductive behaviour was similar, both species needing over 2 months to mature. At 18ºC, the rate of gonadal development of R. philippinarum was greater than that of R. decussatus. Nevertheless, the results of this study confirm that both species have adapted perfectly to the temperature conditions of the Galician Rias, though certain differences between the reproductive behaviour of these species were detected. R. philippinarum accumulates oocytes prior to their partial or total emission, while in the case of R. decussatus gametes are liberated continuously. In the early phases of its development, the gonad of R. philippinarum is highly heterogeneous in nature, with up to 3 reproductive states being present at the same time, while in R. decussatus gonadal development is much more uniform. Another major difference concerns the phenomenon of reabsorption, common in R. philippinarum but very rare in R. decussatus. These characteristics may well result in a greater reproductive activity in R. philippinarum than in R. decussatus, and a longer reproduction period in the former. They may also represent a certain advantage for the adaptation of the foreign species (R. philippinarum) over the native species (R. decussatus) to the temperature conditions of the Galician Rias.Se llevaron a cabo experiencias de laboratorio para estudiar la influencia de la temperatura en el comportamiento reproductivo de dos especies de almeja, R. philippinarum y R. decussatus, en su adaptación a las condiciones térmicas en las costas de Galicia. En ambas especies la tasa de desarrollo gonadal está directamente relacionada con el incremento de temperatura. A 14ºC el comportamiento reproductivo es similar y ambas especies necesitan cerca de 2 meses para madurar. A 18ºC, la tasa de desarrollo gonadal de R. philippinarum es mayor que en R. decussatus. No obstante, los resultados de este estudio confirman que ambas especies se han adaptado perfectamente a las condiciones térmicas de las rías de Galicia, si bien, se detectan ciertas diferencias en su comportamiento reproductivo. Así, mientras R. philippinarum acumula ovocitos antes de su emisión parcial o total, en el caso e R. decussatus los gametos se liberan continuamente. En las primeras fases de su desarrollo, el aspecto de la gónada de R. philippinarum es muy heterogéneo, presentándose hasta 3 estados reproductivos simultáneamente, mientras que en R. decussatus el desarrollo gonadal es bastante más uniforme. Otra diferencia concierne al fenómeno de la reabsorción, común en R. philippinarum, pero muy raro en R. decussatus. Estas características pueden sustentar una mayor actividad reproductiva en R. philippinarum comparado con R. decussatus, y un mayor periodo reproductivo en el caso de la primera. Ello puede también representar una cierta ventaje adaptativa, de la especie foráneas (R. philippinarum) frente la especie nativa (R. decussatus), a las condiciones térmicas de las rías de Galicia

Ñ-STING : España short term indicator of growth

We develop a dynamic factor model to compute short term forecasts of the Spanish GDP growth in real time. With this model, we compute a business cycle index which works well as an indicator of the business cycle conditions in Spain. To examine its real time forecasting accuracy, we use real-time data vintages from 2008.02 through 2009.01. We conclude that the model exhibits good forecasting performance in anticipating the recent and sudden downtur

Introducing the EURO-STING : sort term indicator of euro area growth

We propose a model to compute short-term forecasts of the Euro area GDP growth in real-time. To allow for forecast evaluation, we construct a real-time data set that changes for each vintage date and includes the exact information that was available at the time of each forecast. In this context, we provide examples that show how data revisions and data availability affect point forecasts and forecast uncertaint

Jump-and-rest effect of U.S. business cycles

One of the most extended empirical stylized facts about output dynamics in the United States is the positive autocorrelation of output growth. This paper shows that the positive autocorrelation can be better captured by shifts between business cycle states rather than by the standard view of autoregressive coefficients. This result is extremely robust to different nonlinear alternative models and also applies not only to output but to the most relevant macroeconomic variables.[resumen de autor

Obtaining quasi-static models using a frequency domain extraction methodology

© 2018 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.”This contribution illustrates how a realistic nonlinear quasi-static model for FET-type devices can be extracted using an original frequency domain extraction technique. An ideal ‘made-up’ device is built from the measured bias dependence of a GaN medium power device. This ideal device is excited by two ideal voltage sources and its response (drain current) is used to illustrate how the extraction procedure can separate conduction and displacement current components provided the total current spectrum (or, alternatively, waveform) and control voltages are known.This work has been supported by the Junta de Andalucía under Grant (TIC2012-1237). Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech