Economic regimes identification using machine learning technics

43 páginas.Trabajo de Máster en Economía, Finanzas y Computación. Director: Dr. José Manuel Bravo Caro. Economic conditions over long time periods can be distinguished by regimes. Regime identification has been object of numerous investigations in economics and financial modeling for years. Recently, new machine learning technics such as decision trees, support vector machines and neural networks, among others, followed by alternative datasets and cheap computational processing power became available, allowing for alternative ways to model complex economic relationships. In the present work, we develop a supervised machine learning classifier using Random Forest technic to identify economic regimes using the S&P 500 stock market index series.Las condiciones económicas durante largos períodos de tiempo pueden distinguirse por regímenes. La identificación del régimen ha sido objeto de numerosas investigaciones en economía y modelos financieros durante años. Recientemente, se pusieron a disposición nuevas técnicas de aprendizaje automático, como árboles de decisión, máquinas de suporte vectorial y redes neuronales, entre otras, seguidas de conjuntos de datos alternativos y una capacidad de procesamiento computacional barata, que permite formas alternativas de modelar relaciones económicas complejas. En el presente trabajo, desarrollamos un clasificador de aprendizaje automático supervisado utilizando la técnica de Random Forest para identificar regímenes económicos utilizando la serie del índices de mercado S&P 500

Assessment of in vitro antitumoral and antimicrobial activities of marine algae harvested from the eastern Mediterranean sea

Antitumoral activities of five algal extracts obtained from the marine algae Scytosiphon lomentaria, Padina pavonica, Cystoseira mediterranea (Phaeophyceae), Hypnea musciformis and Spyridia filamentosa (Rhodophyta) were assessed against the human breast adenocarcinoma cell line MCF–7 and the human prostate carcinoma epithelium like cell lines DU 145, LNCaP, PC3 using the cytotoxic assay, in vitro. The crude extract of S. filamentosa showed strong cytotoxic activity against the DU-145 cell line, and it showed less than 10% cell viability after treatment. Antimicrobial activities of the crude extracts of algae (with the exception of H. musciformis) were also tested by disc diffusion assay against three Gram positive and five Gram negative bacterial strains and against the yeast pathogen Candida albicans. Among the extraxts, S. lomentaria extract (prepared with methanol) inhibited highly Gram negative bacterium Salmonella typhimurium growth while C. albicans growth was only inhibited by C.mediterrranea extract

Emotional and Behavioral Responses to COVID-19

This review appraises evidence for the role of personality in Covid-19 related emotions and behaviours. Three key models of personality are considered: the Five factor Model, HEXACO model and Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory. In line with personality research more generally, most studies focus on the Five-Factor model. Key findings are that neuroticism is most associated with poor mental health, and extraversion is associated with a reluctance to socially isolate. Conscientiousness predicts compliance with safety guidelines, but also with fewer prosocial behaviours, particularly stockpiling. Research within the HEXACO framework largely confirms these findings, especially for emotionality and mental health. The additional HEXACO Honesty-humility factor is found to be associated with prosocial views and abstention from panic buying. Studies based on the Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory of personality indicate the presence of emotional conflict as people wish to stay safe, whilst also maintaining a sense of normality. Behavioural compliance is driven by activation in the Fight-Flight-Freeze System (FFFS; fear-related) and the Behavioural Inhibition System (BIS; anxiety-related). The Behavioural Approach System (BAS) is implicated in approach-driven behaviours such as avoiding infection. These findings have implications for health communications and post-pandemic support

Vassar Miller prize in poetry series

The poems in Circles Where the Head Should Be are full of objects and oddities, bits of news, epic catalogues, and a cast of characters hoping to make sense of it all. Underneath the often whimsical surface, however, lies a search for those connections we long for but so often miss, and a wish for art to bridge the gaps. “Circles Where the Head Should Be has its own distinctive voice, a lively intelligence, insatiable curiosity, and a decided command of form. These qualities play off one another in ways that instruct and delight. An irresistible book.”—J. D. McClatchy, author of Mercury Dressing: Poems, judg

FRESENIUS ENVIRONMENTAL BULLETIN

In the present study the antioxidant activities exhibited by the crude extracts of six marine algae collected from the Aegean Sea shores of Turkey were examined: Padina pavonica, Cystoseira barbata, and Sargassum acinarium of the Phaeophyceae (brown algae), Caulerpa racemosa var. cylindracea of the Bryopsidophyceae (green algae), and Jania longifurca and Laurencia obtusa belonging to the Rhodophyceae (red algae). Antioxidant activities were assessed by measurement of glutathion peroxidase activity spectrophotometrically and malondialdehyde measurement for lipid peroxidation by HPLC. Among the species examined, the highest antioxidative capacity according to specific glutathion peroxidase activity was measured from the extract of the brown alga Sargassum acinarium (124 U/mg protein) followed by another brown alga Padina pavonica (16.20 U/mg protein). Malondialdehyde contents of extracts as an indicator of lipid peroxidation were compared, and S. acinarium extract had the lowest MDA level (0.229 mu mol/l). Antimicrobial activities of the methanolic extracts of P. pavonica, Cy. barbata, S. acinarium and J. longifurca were also evaluated against eight microorganisms (7 bacteria and a yeast strain). The extracts showed moderate inhibitory activity

Original scientific paper

were prepared. Their structure was established to be �MLCl �. Cl by using elemental analysis and molar conductivity, as well as AA, FTIR, UV/VIS and 1H-NMR spectroscopic methods. The spectral studies indicated a square-planar geometry for the Ni(II) and Cu(II) complexes and a tetrahedral one for the Co(II) and Zn(II) complexes. The complexes were tested for antibacterial activity against Staphylococcus aureus, Enterococcus D, Proteus mirabilis, Escherichia coli, Bacillus anthracis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Candida albicans

Comment l'incertitude d'avenir des requérants d'asile impacte-t-elle leur apprentissage du français ?

Ce travail a été effectué dans le but d'analyser la problématique des requérants d'asile par rapport à leur apprentissage de la langue française. Il vise plus précisément à comprendre la manière dont leur situation instable et leur vécu peuvent impacter cette acquisition de la langue. Cette partie écrite est un document de support au mémoire qui est réalisé sous la forme d'une production audiovisuelle au nom de « Mon avenir en quelques maux » d'une durée de 42 minutes, disponible sur https://mediaserver.unige.ch. La méthodologie de ce travail combine des données audiovisuelles suite à des entretiens (semi-directifs) dans lesquels les participants répondent à des questions préparées via une grille d'entretien, puis sont amenés à raconter et commenter leur propre vécu

ENGL 200, INTRODUCTION TO POETRY WRITING, Fall 2014

This syllabus was submitted to the Office of Academic by the course instructor. Uploaded by Lorie Yearwood.A study of poetic form and theory, leading to a workshop in which students present their own poems for discussion. Students will learn to write basic narratives, as well as received forms such as villanelles, and to find forms suitable for their own work. Prerequisites: FYWS 151 or permission from instructor

Relationships between available soil water and indicators of plant water status of sweet sorghum to be applied in irrigation scheduling

Optimal crop production depends greatly on available soil water, and it is therefore important to know when and how much to irrigate in order to attain agronomic potential. In this work, plant indicators are used to assess water stress. These are compared with available soil water to find the critical point for irrigation scheduling of sweet sorghum. The experimental trial was carried out in Becej, in the Vojvodina region, on a sweet sorghum crop, grown in moderate climatic conditions on a well-drained, deep chernozemolic meadow soil. Plant indicators tested were predawn and midday leaf water potential and crop and air temperature difference. All the methods were sensitive to water deficit in plants, but not all can be used for irrigation scheduling. The predawn leaf water potential was the most reliable parameter among those tested due to its relative independence from weather conditions and a valid indicator of plant water status. This was not the case with canopy-air temperature difference. The predawn leaf water potential corelation with available soil water indicates that the threshold value for irrigation scheduling of sweet sorghum is when the former has decreased to -0.45 MPa. This corresponds to a soil water depletion to about 10% of available water in the active root zone. The canopy-air temperature difference was sufficiently sensitive to indicate the onset of mild plant water stress, although it showed a certain threshold value when water shortage appeared, which occurred when the air and canopy temperature were the same