Modelling the impact of prescribed global warming on runoff from headwater catchments of the Irrawaddy River and their implications for the water level regime of Loktak Lake, northeast India

Climate change is likely to have major implications for wetland ecosystems, which will include altered water level regimes due to modifications in local and catchment hydrology. However, substantial uncertainty exists in the precise impacts of climate change on wetlands due in part to uncertainty in GCM projections. This paper explores the impacts of climate change upon river discharge within three sub-catchments of Loktak Lake, an internationally important wetland in northeast India. This is achieved by running pattern-scaled GCM output through distributed hydrological models (developed using MIKE SHE) of each sub-catchment. The impacts of climate change upon water levels within Loktak Lake are subsequently investigated using a water balance model. Two groups of climate change scenarios are investigated. Group 1 uses results from seven different GCMs for an increase in global mean temperature of 2 A degrees C, the purported threshold of ''dangerous'' climate change, whilst Group 2 is based on results from the HadCM3 GCM for increases in global mean temperature between 1 A degrees C and 6 A degrees C. Results from the Group 1 scenarios show varying responses between the three sub-catchments. The majority of scenario-sub-catchment combinations (13 out of 21) indicate increases in discharge which vary from < 1% to 42% although, in some cases, discharge decreases by as much as 20%. Six of the GCMs suggest overall increases in river flow to Loktak Lake (2-27%) whilst the other results in a modest (6%) decline. In contrast, the Group 2 scenarios lead to an almost linear increase in total river flow to Loktak Lake with increasing temperature (up to 27% for 6 A degrees C), although two sub-catchments experience reductions in mean discharge for the smallest temperature increases. In all but one Group 1 scenario, and all the Group 2 scenarios, Loktak Lake water levels are higher, regularly reaching the top of a downstream hydropower barrage that impounds the lake and necessitating the release of water for barrage structural stability. Although elevated water levels may permit enhanced abstraction for irrigation and domestic uses, future increases in hydropower generation are limited by existing infrastructure. The higher water levels are likely to exacerbate existing ecological deterioration within the lake as well as enhancing problems of flooding of lakeside communities

BAFF and MyD88 signals promote a lupuslike disease independent of T cells

Systemic lupus erythernatosus (SLE) is a systemic autoimmune disease characterized by the production of autoantibodies. However, the underlying cause of disease appears to relate to defects in T cell tolerance or T cell help to 13 cells. Transgenic (Tg) mice over-expressing the cytokine 13 cell-activating factor of the tumor necrosis factor family (BAFF) develop an autoimmune disorder similar to SLE and show impaired B cell tolerance and altered T cell differentiation. We generated BAFF Tg mice that were completely deficient in T cells, and, surprisingly, these mice developed an SLE-like disease indistinguishable from that of BAFF Tg mice. Autoimmunity in BAFF Tg mice did, however, require 13 cell-intrinsic signals through the Toll-like receptor (TLR)-associated signaling adaptor MyD88, which controlled the production of proinflammatory autoantibody isotypes. TLR7/9 activation strongly up-regulated expression of transmembrane activator and calcium modulator and cyclophilin ligand interactor (TACI), which is a receptor for BAFF involved in 13 cell responses to T cell-independent antigens. Moreover, BAFF enhanced TLR7/9 expression on 13 cells and TLR-mediated production of autoantibodies. Therefore, autoirnmunity in BAFF Tg mice results from altered 13 cell tolerance, but requires TLR signaling and is independent of T cell help. It is possible that SLE patients with elevated levels of BAFF show a similar basis for disease

Phenotypic spectrum associated with de novo and inherited deletions and duplications at 16p11.2 in individuals ascertained for diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder

Background Recurrent microdeletions and microduplications of w555 kb at 16p11.2 confer susceptibility to autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in up to 1% of ASD patients. No physical or behavioural features have been identified that distinguish these individuals as having a distinct ASD subtype, but clinical data are limited. Methods We report five autistic probands identified by microarray analysis with copy number variation (CNV) of 16p11.2 (three deletions, two duplications). Each patient was assessed for ASD and dysmorphic features. We also describe a deletion positive 26-month-old female who has developmental delay (DD) and autistic features. Results Proband 1 (female with ASD, de novo deletion) is not dysmorphic. Proband 2 (male with autism, de novo deletion) and proband 3 and his brother (males with autism, inherited deletions) are dysmorphic, but the two probands do not resemble one another. The mother of proband 3 has mild mental retardation (MR), minor dysmorphism and meets the criteria for ASD. Proband 4 (dysmorphic autistic male, de novo duplication) had a congenital diaphragmatic hernia. Proband 5 (nondysmorphic ASD female with a duplication) has two apparently healthy duplication positive relatives. Probands 1 and 2 have deletion negative siblings with ASD and Asperger syndrome, respectively. Proband 6 (a female with DD and an inherited duplication) is dysmorphic, but has oligohydramnios sequence. Conclusions The phenotypic spectrum associated with CNV at 16p11.2 includes ASD, MR/DD and/or possibly other primary psychiatric disorders. Compared with the microduplications, the reciprocal microdeletions are more likely to be penetrant and to be associated with nonspecific major or minor dysmorphism. There are deletion positive ASD probands with a less severe phenotype than deletion negative ASD siblings underscoring the significant phenotypic heterogeneity.published_or_final_versio

An advanced Bayesian model for the visual tracking of multiple interacting objects

Visual tracking of multiple objects is a key component of many visual-based systems. While there are reliable algorithms for tracking a single object in constrained scenarios, the object tracking is still a challenge in uncontrolled situations involving multiple interacting objects that have a complex dynamics. In this article, a novel Bayesian model for tracking multiple interacting objects in unrestricted situations is proposed. This is accomplished by means of an advanced object dynamic model that predicts possible interactive behaviors, which in turn depend on the inference of potential events of object occlusion. The proposed tracking model can also handle false and missing detections that are typical from visual object detectors operating in uncontrolled scenarios. On the other hand, a Rao-Blackwellization technique has been used to improve the accuracy of the estimated object trajectories, which is a fundamental aspect in the tracking of multiple objects due to its high dimensionality. Excellent results have been obtained using a publicly available database, proving the efficiency of the proposed approach

Hidden Yangian symmetry in sigma model on squashed sphere

We discuss a hidden symmetry of a two-dimensional sigma model on a squashed S^3. The SU(2) current can be improved so that it can be regarded as a flat connection. Then we can obtain an infinite number of conserved non-local charges and show the Yangian algebra by directly checking the Serre relation. This symmetry is also deduced from the coset structure of the squashed sphere. The same argument is applicable to the warped AdS_3 spaces via double Wick rotations.Comment: 11 pages, 1 figure, typos corrected, references adde

To respond or not to respond - a personal perspective of intestinal tolerance

For many years, the intestine was one of the poor relations of the immunology world, being a realm inhabited mostly by specialists and those interested in unusual phenomena. However, this has changed dramatically in recent years with the realization of how important the microbiota is in shaping immune function throughout the body, and almost every major immunology institution now includes the intestine as an area of interest. One of the most important aspects of the intestinal immune system is how it discriminates carefully between harmless and harmful antigens, in particular, its ability to generate active tolerance to materials such as commensal bacteria and food proteins. This phenomenon has been recognized for more than 100 years, and it is essential for preventing inflammatory disease in the intestine, but its basis remains enigmatic. Here, I discuss the progress that has been made in understanding oral tolerance during my 40 years in the field and highlight the topics that will be the focus of future research

Socioeconomic differentials in the immediate mortality effects of the national Irish smoking ban

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background: Consistent evidence has demonstrated that smoking ban policies save lives, but impacts on health inequalities are uncertain as few studies have assessed post-ban effects by socioeconomic status (SES) and findings have been inconsistent. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of the national Irish smoking ban on ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality by discrete and composite SES indicators to determine impacts on inequalities. Methods: Census data were used to assign frequencies of structural and material SES indicators to 34 local authorities across Ireland with a 2000–2010 study period. Discrete indicators were jointly analysed through principal component analysis to generate a composite index, with sensitivity analyses conducted by varying the included indicators. Poisson regression with interrupted time-series analysis was conducted to examine monthly age and gender-standardised mortality rates in the Irish population, ages ≥35 years, stratified by tertiles of SES indicators. All models were adjusted for time trend, season, influenza, and smoking prevalence. Results: Post-ban mortality reductions by structural SES indicators were concentrated in the most deprived tertile for all causes of death, while reductions by material SES indicators were more equitable across SES tertiles. The composite indices mirrored the results of the discrete indicators, demonstrating that post-ban mortality decreases were either greater or similar in the most deprived when compared to the least deprived for all causes of death. Conclusions: Overall findings indicated that the national Irish smoking ban reduced inequalities in smoking-related mortality. Due to the higher rates of smoking-related mortality in the most deprived group, even equitable reductions across SES tertiles resulted in decreases in inequalities. The choice of SES indicator was influential in the measurement of effects, underscoring that a differentiated analytical approach aided in understanding the complexities in which structural and material factors influence mortality

Physical, Psychological and Emotional Benefits of Green Physical Activity: An Ecological Dynamics Perspective

© 2015 Springer International Publishing Switzerland Increasing evidence supports the multiple benefits to physical, psychological and emotional wellbeing of green physical activity, a topic of increasing interest in the past decade. Research has revealed a synergistic benefit of green physical activity, which includes all aspects of exercise and physical activity in the presence of nature. Our theoretical analysis suggests there are three distinct levels of engagement in green physical activity, with each level reported to have a positive effect on human behaviours. However, the extent to which each level of green physical activity benefits health and wellbeing is assumed to differ, requiring confirmation in future research. This elucidation of understanding is needed because previous literature has tended to focus on recording empirical evidence rather than developing a sound theoretical framework to understand green physical activity effects. Here we propose an ecological dynamics rationale to explain how and why green physical activity might influence health and wellbeing of different population groups. This framework suggests a number of unexplored, interacting constraints related to types of environment and population groups, which shape reported levels of benefit of green physical activity. Further analysis is needed to clarify the explicit relationship between green physical activity and health and wellbeing, including levels of engagement, types of environmental constraints, levels of physical activity, adventure effects, skill effects and sampling of different populations

Young people’s perceptions of smartphone-enabled self-testing and online care for sexually transmitted infections: qualitative interview study

Background Control of sexually transmitted infections (STI) is a global public health priority. Despite the UK’s free, confidential sexual health clinical services, those at greatest risk of STIs, including young people, report barriers to use. These include: embarrassment regarding face-to-face consultations; the time-commitment needed to attend clinic; privacy concerns (e.g. being seen attending clinic); and issues related to confidentiality. A smartphone-enabled STI self-testing device, linked with online clinical care pathways for treatment, partner notification, and disease surveillance, is being developed by the eSTI2 consortium. It is intended to benefit public health, and could do so by increasing testing among populations which underutilise existing services and/or by enabling rapid provision of effective treatment. We explored its acceptability among potential users. Methods In-depth interviews were conducted in 2012 with 25 sexually-experienced 16–24 year olds, recruited from Further Education colleges in an urban, high STI prevalence area. Thematic analysis was undertaken. Results Nine females and 16 males participated. 21 self-defined as Black; three, mixed ethnicity; and one, Muslim/Asian. 22 reported experience of STI testing, two reported previous STI diagnoses, and all had owned smartphones. Participants expressed enthusiasm about the proposed service, and suggested that they and their peers would use it and test more often if it were available. Utilizing sexual healthcare was perceived to be easier and faster with STI self-testing and online clinical care, which facilitated concealment of STI testing from peers/family, and avoided embarrassing face-to-face consultations. Despite these perceived advantages to privacy, new privacy concerns arose regarding communications technology: principally the risk inherent in having evidence of STI testing or diagnosis visible or retrievable on their phone. Some concerns arose regarding the proposed self-test’s accuracy, related to self-operation and the technology’s novelty. Several expressed anxiety around the possibility of being diagnosed and treated without any contact with healthcare professionals. Conclusions Remote STI self-testing and online care appealed to these young people. It addressed barriers they associated with conventional STI services, thus may benefit public health through earlier detection and treatment. Our findings underpin development of online care pathways, as part of ongoing research to create this complex e-health intervention

Eda haplotypes in three-spined stickleback are associated with variation in immune gene expression

Haplotypes underlying local adaptation and speciation are predicted to have numerous phenotypic effects, but few genes involved have been identified, with much work to date concentrating on visible, morphological, phenotypes. The link between genes controlling these adaptive morphological phenotypes and the immune system has seldom been investigated, even though changes in the immune system could have profound adaptive consequences. The Eda gene in three-spined stickleback is one of the best studied major adaptation genes; it directly controls bony plate architecture and has been associated with additional aspects of adaptation to freshwater. Here, we exposed F2 hybrids, used to separate Eda genotype from genetic background, to contrasting conditions in semi-natural enclosures. We demonstrate an association between the Eda haplotype block and the expression pattern of key immune system genes. Furthermore, low plated fish grew less and experienced higher burdens of a common ectoparasite with fitness consequences. Little is currently known about the role of the immune system in facilitating adaptation to novel environments, but this study provides an indication of its potential importance