The US stock market leads the Federal funds rate and Treasury bond yields

Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii) the change in central bank rates, as a proxy of the monetary policy of the central bank, should be a predictor of the future stock market direction. Using both monthly and weekly data, we found very similar lead-lag dependence between the S&P500 stock market index and the yields of bonds inside two groups: bond yields of short-term maturities (Federal funds rate (FFR), 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y) and bond yields of long-term maturities (5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 20Y). In all cases, we observe the opposite of (i) and (ii). First, the stock market and yields move in the same direction. Second, the stock market leads the yields, including and especially the FFR. Moreover, we find that the short-term yields in the first group lead the long-term yields in the second group before the financial crisis that started mid-2007 and the inverse relationship holds afterwards. These results suggest that the Federal Reserve is increasingly mindful of the stock market behavior, seen at key to the recovery and health of the economy. Long-term investors seem also to have been more reactive and mindful of the signals provided by the financial stock markets than the Federal Reserve itself after the start of the financial crisis. The lead of the S&P500 stock market index over the bond yields of all maturities is confirmed by the traditional lagged cross-correlation analysis.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

Circumstellar discs: What will be next?

This prospective chapter gives our view on the evolution of the study of circumstellar discs within the next 20 years from both observational and theoretical sides. We first present the expected improvements in our knowledge of protoplanetary discs as for their masses, sizes, chemistry, the presence of planets as well as the evolutionary processes shaping these discs. We then explore the older debris disc stage and explain what will be learnt concerning their birth, the intrinsic links between these discs and planets, the hot dust and the gas detected around main sequence stars as well as discs around white dwarfs.Comment: invited review; comments welcome (32 pages

Impact Factor: outdated artefact or stepping-stone to journal certification?

A review of Garfield's journal impact factor and its specific implementation as the Thomson Reuters Impact Factor reveals several weaknesses in this commonly-used indicator of journal standing. Key limitations include the mismatch between citing and cited documents, the deceptive display of three decimals that belies the real precision, and the absence of confidence intervals. These are minor issues that are easily amended and should be corrected, but more substantive improvements are needed. There are indications that the scientific community seeks and needs better certification of journal procedures to improve the quality of published science. Comprehensive certification of editorial and review procedures could help ensure adequate procedures to detect duplicate and fraudulent submissions.Comment: 25 pages, 12 figures, 6 table

Study of Bc+B_c^+ decays to the K+K−π+K^+K^-\pi^+ final state and evidence for the decay Bc+→χc0π+B_c^+\to\chi_{c0}\pi^+

A study of $B_c^+\to K^+K^-\pi^+$ decays is performed for the first time using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.0 $\mathrm{fb}^{-1}$ collected by the LHCb experiment in $pp$ collisions at centre-of-mass energies of $7$ and $8$ TeV. Evidence for the decay $B_c^+\to\chi_{c0}(\to K^+K^-)\pi^+$ is reported with a significance of 4.0 standard deviations, resulting in the measurement of $\frac{\sigma(B_c^+)}{\sigma(B^+)}\times\mathcal{B}(B_c^+\to\chi_{c0}\pi^+)$ to be $(9.8^{+3.4}_{-3.0}(\mathrm{stat})\pm 0.8(\mathrm{syst}))\times 10^{-6}$. Here $\mathcal{B}$ denotes a branching fraction while $\sigma(B_c^+)$ and $\sigma(B^+)$ are the production cross-sections for $B_c^+$ and $B^+$ mesons. An indication of $\bar b c$ weak annihilation is found for the region $m(K^-\pi^+)<1.834\mathrm{\,Ge\kern -0.1em V\!/}c^2$, with a significance of 2.4 standard deviations.Comment: All figures and tables, along with any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://lhcbproject.web.cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/LHCbProjectPublic/LHCb-PAPER-2016-022.html, link to supplemental material inserted in the reference

The prevalence of physical, sexual and mental abuse among adolescents and the association with BMI status

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Studies among adults show an association between abuse and Body Mass Index (BMI) status. When an aberrant BMI status as a consequence of abuse is already prevalent in adolescence, early detection and treatment of abuse might prevent these adolescents from developing serious weight problems and other long-term social, emotional and physical problems in adulthood. Therefore, this study investigated the prevalence of physical, sexual and mental abuse among adolescents and examined the association of these abuse subtypes with BMI status.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In total, data of 51,856 secondary school students aged 13–16 who had completed a questionnaire on health, well-being and lifestyle were used. BMI was classified into four categories, underweight, normal weight, overweight and obesity. Adolescents reported if they had ever been physically, sexually or mentally abused. Crude and adjusted General Estimation Equation (GEE) analyses were performed to investigate the association between abuse subtypes and BMI status. Analyses were adjusted for ethnicity and parental communication, and stratified for gender and educational level.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Eighteen percent of the adolescents reported mental abuse, 7% reported sexual abuse, and 6% reported physical abuse. For underweight, overweight and obese adolescents these percentages were 17%, 25%, and 44%; 7%, 8%, and 16%; and 6%, 8%, 18% respectively. For the entire population, all these subtypes of abuse were associated with being overweight and obese (OR=3.67, 1.79 and 1.50) and all but sexual abuse were associated with underweight (OR=1.21 and 1.12). Stratified analyses showed that physical and sexual abuse were significantly associated with obesity among boys (OR=1.77 and 2.49) and among vocational school students (OR=1.60 and 1.69), and with underweight among girls (OR=1.26 and 0.83).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Mental abuse was reported by almost half of the obese adolescents and associated with underweight, overweight and obesity. Longitudinal analyses are recommended to explore the causality of and the mechanisms explaining this association between abuse and overweight.</p

Impact of Ownership Types on R&amp;D Intensity and Innovation Performance - Evidence from Transitional China

This paper examines the effects of ownership types on firms’ R&amp;D intensity and innovation performance, using a sample of 357,857 Chinese firms from 2005-2007. This study finds considerable divergence among Chinese domestic enterprises in terms of R&amp;D intensity and innovation performance. We find that firms owned by the central government are the key drivers for firms’ R&amp;D activities, while local government, private and foreign ownerships are negatively related to both R&amp;D intensity and innovation performance. This paper finds significant divergence within government ownership category and argue China’s institutional changes generate varied government ownership groups with different levels of resource endowment, which in turn influence firms’ R&amp;D activities. Publisher Statement: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) nanomachines: mechanisms for fluoroquinolone and glycopeptide recognition, efflux and/or deactivation

In this review, we discuss mechanisms of resistance identified in bacterial agents Staphylococcus aureus and the enterococci towards two priority classes of antibiotics—the fluoroquinolones and the glycopeptides. Members of both classes interact with a number of components in the cells of these bacteria, so the cellular targets are also considered. Fluoroquinolone resistance mechanisms include efflux pumps (MepA, NorA, NorB, NorC, MdeA, LmrS or SdrM in S. aureus and EfmA or EfrAB in the enterococci) for removal of fluoroquinolone from the intracellular environment of bacterial cells and/or protection of the gyrase and topoisomerase IV target sites in Enterococcus faecalis by Qnr-like proteins. Expression of efflux systems is regulated by GntR-like (S. aureus NorG), MarR-like (MgrA, MepR) regulators or a two-component signal transduction system (TCS) (S. aureus ArlSR). Resistance to the glycopeptide antibiotic teicoplanin occurs via efflux regulated by the TcaR regulator in S. aureus. Resistance to vancomycin occurs through modification of the D-Ala-D-Ala target in the cell wall peptidoglycan and removal of high affinity precursors, or by target protection via cell wall thickening. Of the six Van resistance types (VanA-E, VanG), the VanA resistance type is considered in this review, including its regulation by the VanSR TCS. We describe the recent application of biophysical approaches such as the hydrodynamic technique of analytical ultracentrifugation and circular dichroism spectroscopy to identify the possible molecular effector of the VanS receptor that activates expression of the Van resistance genes; both approaches demonstrated that vancomycin interacts with VanS, suggesting that vancomycin itself (or vancomycin with an accessory factor) may be an effector of vancomycin resistance. With 16 and 19 proteins or protein complexes involved in fluoroquinolone and glycopeptide resistances, respectively, and the complexities of bacterial sensing mechanisms that trigger and regulate a wide variety of possible resistance mechanisms, we propose that these antimicrobial resistance mechanisms might be considered complex ‘nanomachines’ that drive survival of bacterial cells in antibiotic environments

The Role of Tourism and Recreation in the Spread of Non-Native Species: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Managing the pathways by which non-native species are introduced and spread is considered the most effective way of preventing species invasions. Tourism and outdoor recreation involve the frequent congregation of people, vehicles and vessels from geographically diverse areas. They are therefore perceived to be major pathways for the movement of non-native species, and ones that will become increasingly important with the continued growth of these sectors. However, a global assessment of the relationship between tourism activities and the introduction of non-native species–particularly in freshwater and marine environments–is lacking. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the impact of tourism and outdoor recreation on non-native species in terrestrial, marine and freshwater environments. Our results provide quantitative evidence that the abundance and richness of non-native species are significantly higher in sites where tourist activities take place than in control sites. The pattern was consistent across terrestrial, freshwater and marine environments; across a variety of vectors (e.g. horses, hikers, yachts); and across a range of taxonomic groups. These results highlight the need for widespread biosecurity interventions to prevent the inadvertent introduction of invasive non-native species (INNS) as the tourism and outdoor recreation sectors grow

Probing the action of a novel anti-leukaemic drug therapy at the single cell level using modern vibrational spectroscopy techniques

Acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) is a life threatening cancer for which there is an urgent clinical need for novel therapeutic approaches. A redeployed drug combination of bezafibrate and medroxyprogesterone acetate (BaP) has shown anti-leukaemic activity in vitro and in vivo. Elucidation of the BaP mechanism of action is required in order to understand how to maximise the clinical benefit. Attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy, Synchrotron radiation FTIR (S-FTIR) and Raman microspectroscopy are powerful complementary techniques which were employed to probe the biochemical composition of two AML cell lines in the presence and absence of BaP. Analysis was performed on single living cells along with dehydrated and fixed cells to provide a large and detailed data set. A consideration of the main spectral differences in conjunction with multivariate statistical analysis reveals a significant change to the cellular lipid composition with drug treatment; furthermore, this response is not caused by cell apoptosis. No change to the DNA of either cell line was observed suggesting this combination therapy primarily targets lipid biosynthesis or effects bioactive lipids that activate specific signalling pathways