Simplified metrics for the identification of the Madden–Julian oscillation in models

We propose simplified metrics to evaluate the fidelity with which the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is simulated in climate models. These metrics are based on lag correlation analysis of principal component time series (PCs). The PCs are obtained by projecting simulated 20–100 day bandpass filtered daily outgoing longwave radiation onto the two leading empirical orthogonal functions of observed MJO variability. The simplified MJO metrics, the maximum positive correlation and time lag at which it occurs, provide consistent information relative to more complex diagnostics developed by the Madden–Julian Oscillation Working Group (CLIVAR MJOWG) and by Kim et al

Does the Madden-Julian Oscillation modulate stratospheric gravity waves?

The circulation of the stratosphere is strongly influenced by the fluxes of gravity waves propagating from tropospheric sources. In the tropics, these gravity waves are primarily generated by convection. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) dominates the intra-seasonal variability of this convection. However, the influence of the MJO on the variability of stratospheric gravity waves is largely unknown. Here we examine gravity-wave potential energy at 26 km and the upper tropospheric zonal- wind anomaly of the MJO at 200 hPa, sorted by the relative phase of the MJO using the RMM MJO indices. We show that a strong anti-correlation exists between gravity-wave potential energy and the MJO eastward wind anomaly. We propose that this correlation is a result of the filtering of upward-propagating waves by the MJO winds. The study provides the first observational evidence that the MJO contributes significantly to the global variability of stratospheric gravity waves in the tropics

Using a case-study approach to improve the Madden-Julian oscillation in the Hadley Centre model

In its default configuration, the Hadley Centre climate model (GA2.0) simulates roughly one-half the observed level of Madden–Julian oscillation activity, with MJO events often lasting fewer than seven days. We use initialised, climate-resolution hindcasts to examine the sensitivity of the GA2.0 MJO to a range of changes in sub-grid parameterisations and model configurations. All 22 changes are tested for two cases during the Years of Tropical Convection. Improved skill comes only from (a) disabling vertical momentum transport by convection and (b) increasing mixing entrainment and detrainment for deep and mid-level convection. These changes are subsequently tested in a further 14 hindcast cases; only (b) consistently improves MJO skill, from 12 to 22 days. In a 20-year integration, (b) produces near-observed levels of MJO activity, but propagation through the Maritime Continent remains weak. With default settings, GA2.0 produces precipitation too readily, even in anomalously dry columns. Implementing (b) decreases the efficiency of convection, permitting instability to build during the suppressed MJO phase and producing a more favourable environment for the active phase. The distribution of daily rain rates is more consistent with satellite data; default entrainment produces 6–12 mm/day too frequently. These results are consistent with recent studies showing that greater sensitivity of convection to moisture improves the representation of the MJO

Application of MJO Simulation Diagnostics to Climate Models

The ability of eight climate models to simulate the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is examined using diagnostics developed by the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) MJO Working Group. Although the MJO signal has been extracted throughout the annual cycle, this study focuses on the boreal winter (November-April) behavior. Initially, maps of the mean state and variance and equatorial space-time spectra of 850-hPa zonal wind and precipitation are compared with observations. Models best represent the intraseasonal space-time spectral peak in the zonal wind compared to that of precipitation. Using the phase-space representation of the multivariate principal components (PCs), the life cycle properties of the simulated MJOs are extracted, including the ability to represent how the MJO evolves from a given subphase and the associated decay time scales. On average, the MJO decay (e-folding) time scale for all models is shorter (~20- 29 days) than observations (~31 days). All models are able to produce a leading pair of multivariate principal components that represents eastward propagation of intraseasonal wind and precipitation anomalies, although the fraction of the variance is smaller than observed for all models. In some cases, the dominant time scale of these PCs is outside of the 30-80-day band. Several key variables associated with the model's MJO are investigated, including the surface latent heat flux, boundary layer (925 hPa) moisture convergence, and the vertical structure of moisture. Low-level moisture convergence ahead (east) of convection is associated with eastward propagation in most of the models. A few models are also able to simulate the gradual moistening of the lower troposphere that precedes observed MJO convection, as well as the observed geographical difference in the vertical structure of moisture associated with the MJO. The dependence of rainfall on lower tropospheric relative humidity and the fraction of rainfall that is stratiform are also discussed, including implications these diagnostics have for MJO simulation. Based on having the most realistic intraseasonal multivariate empirical orthogonal functions, principal component power spectra, equatorial eastward propagating outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), latent heat flux, low-level moisture convergence signals, and vertical structure of moisture over the Eastern Hemisphere, the superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM) and the ECHAM4/Ocean Isopycnal Model (OPYC) show the best skill at representing the MJO.open1149