Immune Boosting Explains Regime-Shifts in Prevaccine-Era Pertussis Dynamics

Understanding the biological mechanisms underlying episodic outbreaks of infectious diseases is one of mathematical epidemiology’s major goals. Historic records are an invaluable source of information in this enterprise. Pertussis (whooping cough) is a re-emerging infection whose intermittent bouts of large multiannual epidemics interspersed between periods of smaller-amplitude cycles remain an enigma. It has been suggested that recent increases in pertussis incidence and shifts in the age-distribution of cases may be due to diminished natural immune boosting. Here we show that a model that incorporates this mechanism can account for a unique set of pre-vaccine-era data from Copenhagen. Under this model, immune boosting induces transient bursts of large amplitude outbreaks. In the face of mass vaccination, the boosting model predicts larger and more frequent outbreaks than do models with permanent or passively-waning immunity. Our results emphasize the importance of understanding the mechanisms responsible for maintaining immune memory fo

Estimating the Duration of Pertussis Immunity Using Epidemiological Signatures

Case notifications of pertussis have shown an increase in a number of countries with high rates of routine pediatric immunization. This has led to significant public health concerns over a possible pertussis re-emergence. A leading proposed explanation for the observed increase in incidence is the loss of immunity to pertussis, which is known to occur after both natural infection and vaccination. Little is known, however, about the typical duration of immunity and its epidemiological implications. Here, we analyze a simple mathematical model, exploring specifically the inter-epidemic period and fade-out frequency. These predictions are then contrasted with detailed incidence data for England and Wales. We find model output to be most sensitive to assumptions concerning naturally acquired immunity, which allows us to estimate the average duration of immunity. Our results support a period of natural immunity that is, on average, long-lasting (at least 30 years) but inherently variable

Octupole states in Tl-207 studied through beta decay

The beta decay of Hg-207 into the single-proton-hole nucleus Tl-207 has been studied through gamma-ray spectroscopy at the ISOLDE Decay Station (IDS) with the aim of identifying states resulting from coupling of the pi s(1/2)(-1), pi d(3/2)(-1) and pi h(11/2)(-1) shell model orbitals to the collective octupole vibration. Twenty-two states were observed lying between 2.6 and 4.0 MeV, eleven of which were observed for the first time, and 78 new transitions were placed. Two octupole states (s(3/2)-coupled) are identified and three more states (d(3/2)-coupled) are tentatively assigned using spin-parity inferences, while further h(11/2)-coupled states may also have been observed for the first time. Comparisons are made with state-of-the-art large-scale shell model calculations and previous observations made in this region, and systematic underestimation of the energy of the octupole vibrational states is noted. We suggest that in order to resolve the difference in predicted energies for collective and noncollective t = 1 states (t is the number of nucleons breaking the Pb-208 core), the effect of t = 2 mixing may be reduced for octupole-coupled states. The inclusion of mixing with t = 0, 2, 3 excitations is necessary to replicate all t = 1 state energies accurately.Peer reviewe

Competition between Allowed and First-Forbidden beta Decay : The Case of Hg-208 -> Tl-2(0)8

The beta decay of Hg-208 into the one-proton hole, one neutron-particle Tl-208(81)127 nucleus was investigated at CERN-ISOLDE. Shell-model calculations describe well the level scheme deduced, validating the proton-neutron interactions used, with implications for the whole of the N > 126, Z 0(-)beta decay where the daughter state is core excited is unique, and can provide information on mesonic corrections of effective operators.Peer reviewe

Investigation of the Δn = 0 selection rule in Gamow-Teller transitions : The β-decay of 207 Hg

Gamow-Teller β decay is forbidden if the number of nodes in the radial wave functions of the initial and final states is different. This Δn=0 requirement plays a major role in the β decay of heavy neutron-rich nuclei, affecting the nucleosynthesis through the increased half-lives of nuclei on the astrophysical r-process pathway below both Z=50 (for N>82) and Z=82 (for N>126). The level of forbiddenness of the Δn=1ν1g 9/2 →π0g 7/2 transition has been investigated from the β − decay of the ground state of 207 Hg into the single-proton-hole nucleus 207 Tl in an experiment at the ISOLDE Decay Station. From statistical observational limits on possible γ-ray transitions depopulating the π0g 7/2 −1 state in 207 Tl, an upper limit of 3.9×10 −3 % was obtained for the probability of this decay, corresponding to log⁡ft>8.8 within a 95% confidence limit. This is the most stringent test of the Δn=0 selection rule to date