A multi‐scale framework for flood risk analysis at spatially distributed locations

This paper presents a multi‐scale framework for flood risk analysis from fluvial and coastal sources at broad (including national) scales. The framework combines an extreme value spatial model of fluvial and coastal flood hazards using the Heffernan and Tawn conditional dependence model, with a new Markov approach to representing the spatial variability of flood defences. The nested multi‐scale structure enables spatial and temporal dependence at a national scale to be combined with detailed local analysis of inundation and damage. By explicitly considering each stage of the process, potential uncertainties in the risk estimate are identified and can be communicated to end users to encourage informed decision making. The framework is demonstrated by application to an insurance portfolio of static caravan sites across the UK worth over £2bn. In the case study, the largest uncertainties are shown to derive from the spatial structure used in the statistical model and limited data on flood defences and receptor vulnerability

Liberation social psychology: learning from Latin America

Liberation Social Psychology (la psicología social de la liberación, LSP) has developed amongst a body of psychologists in Latin America over the last decade. There has been no survey of the field in English, although some of the ideas are of relevance for those working with oppressed groups elsewhere in the world. This article explores the context in which LSP grew from the work of Ignacio Martín-Baró and was developed by Maritza Montero, amongst others. Within LSP, key concepts emerge, including conscientization, realismo-crítico, de-ideologization, a social orientation, the preferential option for the oppressed majorities and methodological eclecticism. The application of LSP is explored with reference to three domains. First, it is suggested that community social psychology as practised in some parts of Latin America reflects LSP in its emphasis on social transformation and participatory methods. Second, psycho-social work with victims of state oppression, which adopts a highly social and societal orientation embodies LSP. Third, social analyses which explicitly adopt socio-psychological-political analyses of the social realities confronting countries in Latin America embrace, in different ways, principles and concepts of LSP. Some of the challenges facing LSP are discussed and open dialogue is encouraged between LSP and critical, community and applied social psychologists. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Cooling water for Britain's future electricity supply

Trends in the locations and technologies of UK electricity generation plant suggest that demand for cooling water abstractions from rivers will decrease in the coming decades, unless there is widespread uptake of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS). CCS may prove to be essential if the UK is to achieve its carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emission targets. ‘Decarbonisation’ strategies that rely on CCS are therefore potentially at risk of not having sufficient cooling water in periods of low river flows. In this paper, regional freshwater demands for cooling water are assessed against regional freshwater availability at low flows in a scenario of medium climate change. In the strategy with high CCS, demands for water greatly exceed current and future availability in the north-west (NW) England, Humber, East (E) Midlands and Thames regions. These risks can be mitigated by increasing the penetration of hybrid cooling systems or shifting generating capacity to estuaries or the coast. The former could reduce national water use by up to 35%, whereas applying the latter in the NW England, Humber and E Midlands regions offers nationwide reductions from 30 to 50%