Dominant role of greenhouse-gas forcing in the recovery of Sahel rainfall

Sahelian summer rainfall, controlled by the West African monsoon, exhibited large-amplitude multidecadal variability during the twentieth century. Particularly important was the severe drought of the 1970s and 1980s, which had widespread impacts1–6. Research into the causes of this drought has identified anthropogenic aerosol forcing3,4,7 and changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs; refs 1,2,6,8–11) as the most important drivers. Since the 1980s, there has been some recovery of Sahel rainfall amounts2–6,11–14, although not to the pre-drought levels of the 1940s and 1950s. Here we report on experiments with the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art global climate model to identify the causes of this recovery. Our results suggest that the direct influence of higher levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere was the main cause, with an additional role for changes in anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions. We find that recent changes in SSTs, although substantial, did not have a significant impact on the recovery. The simulated response to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas and aerosol forcing is consistent with a multivariate fingerprint of the observed recovery, raising confidence in our findings. Although robust predictions are not yet possible, our results suggest that the recent recovery in Sahel rainfall amounts is most likely to be sustained or amplified in the near term

Electronic gaming machine characteristics: it's the little things that count

A range of gamblers, from low-frequency social gamblers through to problem gamblers in treatment, participated in focus groups discussing the characteristics of Electronic Gaming Machines (EGMs) that they found attractive. Analyses of the resulting transcripts resulted in two groups of EGM characteristics being identified as important, one group associated with winning and one with betting. Overall, free spin features were identified in all groups as the most attractive characteristic of EGMS. Beyond that it was smaller win-related characteristics, and low-denomination machines with multiple playable lines that were associated with increased duration and intensity of gambling behaviour. The important characteristics were consistent across different levels of gamblers, with the key behavioural difference being a self-reported ‘expertise’, and ‘strategic’ approach to gambling amongst higher-frequency gamblers and problem gamblers in treatment. The key characteristics all occur frequently and result in more wins and extended gambling sessions. The patterns identified resonated with established behavioural principles, and with models describing the development of problem gambling and addictions more generally

Vegetation forcing modulates global land monsoon and water resources in a CO2-enriched climate

The global monsoon is characterised by transitions between pronounced dry and wet seasons, affecting food security for two-thirds of the world’s population. Rising atmospheric CO2 influences the terrestrial hydrological cycle through climate-radiative and vegetation-physiological forcings. How these two forcings affect the seasonal intensity and characteristics of monsoonal precipitation and runoff is poorly understood. Here we use four Earth System Models to show that in a CO2-enriched climate, radiative forcing changes drive annual precipitation increases for most monsoon regions. Further, vegetation feedbacks substantially affect annual precipitation in North and South America and Australia monsoon regions. In the dry season, runoff increases over most monsoon regions, due to stomatal closure-driven evapotranspiration reductions and associated atmospheric circulation change. Our results imply that flood risks may amplify in the wet season. However, the lengthening of the monsoon rainfall season and reduced evapotranspiration will shorten the water resources scarcity period for most monsoon regions

Ontogeny of juvenile freshwater pearl mussels, Margaritifera margaritifera (Bivalvia: Margaritiferidae).

The gills of juvenile freshwater bivalves undergo a complex morphogenesis that may correlate with changes in feeding ecology, but ontogenic studies on juvenile mussels are rare. Scanning electron microscopy was used to examine the ultrastructure and ontogeny of 117 juvenile freshwater pearl mussels (Margaritifera margaritifera) ranging in age from 1–44 months and length from 0.49–8.90 mm. Three stages of gill development are described. In Stage 1 (5–9 inner demibranch filaments), only unreflected inner demibranch filaments were present. In Stage 2 (9–17 inner demibranch filaments), inner demibranch filaments began to reflect when shell length exceeded 1.13 mm, at 13–16 months old. Reflection began in medial filaments and then proceeded anterior and posterior. In Stage 3 (28–94 inner demibranch filaments), outer demibranch filaments began developing at shell length > 3.1 mm and about 34 months of age. The oral groove on the inner demibranch was first observed in 34 month old specimens > 2.66 mm but was never observed on the outer demibranch. Shell length (R2 = 0.99) was a better predictor of developmental stage compared to age (R2 = 0.84). The full suite of gill ciliation was present on filaments in all stages. Interfilamentary distance averaged 31.3 μm and did not change with age (4–44 months) or with size (0.75–8.9 mm). Distance between laterofrontal cirri couplets averaged 1.54 μm and did not change significantly with size or age. Labial palp primordia were present in even the youngest individuals but ciliature became more diverse in more developed individuals. Information presented here is valuable to captive rearing programmes as it provides insight in to when juveniles may be particularly vulnerable to stressors due to specific ontogenic changes. The data are compared with two other recent studies of Margaritifera development.N/

Multi-tier Loyalty Programs to Stimulate Customer Engagement

Customers differ in their purchase behavior, profitability, attitude toward the firm, and so on. These differences between customers have led to numerous firms introducing multi-tier loyalty programs. A multi-tier loyalty program explicitly distinguishes between customers by means of hierarchical tiers (e.g. Silver, Gold, Platinum) and assigns customers to different tiers based on their past purchase behavior. Next, customers in different tiers are provided varying levels of tangible rewards and intangible benefits, which are potentially powerful instruments to stimulate customer engagement. In this chapter, we focus on the design and effectiveness of such multi-tier loyalty programs. Building on loyalty program and customer prioritization research, we discuss whether, why, and how multi-tier loyalty programs are effective (or not) in influencing customer behavior, thereby enhancing customer engagement and financial performance

Frequency of extreme Sahelian storms tripled since 1982 in satellite observations

The hydrological cycle is expected to intensify under global warming, with studies reporting more frequent extreme rain events in many regions of the world, and predicting increases in future flood frequency. Such early, predominantly mid-latitude observations are essential because of shortcomings within climate models in their depiction of convective rainfall. A globally important group of intense storms—mesoscale convective systems (MCSs)—poses a particular challenge, because they organize dynamically on spatial scales that cannot be resolved by conventional climate models. Here, we use 35 years of satellite observations from the West African Sahel to reveal a persistent increase in the frequency of the most intense MCSs. Sahelian storms are some of the most powerful on the planet, and rain gauges in this region have recorded a rise in ‘extreme’ daily rainfall totals. We find that intense MCS frequency is only weakly related to the multidecadal recovery of Sahel annual rainfall, but is highly correlated with global land temperatures. Analysis of trends across Africa reveals that MCS intensification is limited to a narrow band south of the Sahara desert. During this period, wet-season Sahelian temperatures have not risen, ruling out the possibility that rainfall has intensified in response to locally warmer conditions. On the other hand, the meridional temperature gradient spanning the Sahel has increased in recent decades, consistent with anthropogenic forcing driving enhanced Saharan warming. We argue that Saharan warming intensifies convection within Sahelian MCSs through increased wind shear and changes to the Saharan air layer. The meridional gradient is projected to strengthen throughout the twenty-first century, suggesting that the Sahel will experience particularly marked increases in extreme rain. The remarkably rapid intensification of Sahelian MCSs since the 1980s sheds new light on the response of organized tropical convection to global warming, and challenges conventional projections made by general circulation models

Human bipedal instability in tree canopy environments is reduced by “light touch” fingertip support

Whether tree canopy habitats played a sustained role in the ecology of ancestral bipedal hominins is unresolved. Some argue that arboreal bipedalism was prohibitively risky for hominins whose increasingly modern anatomy prevented them from gripping branches with their feet. Balancing on two legs is indeed challenging for humans under optimal conditions let alone in forest canopy, which is physically and visually highly dynamic. Here we quantify the impact of forest canopy characteristics on postural stability in humans. Viewing a movie of swaying branches while standing on a branch-like bouncy springboard destabilised the participants as much as wearing a blindfold. However “light touch”, a sensorimotor feedback strategy based on light fingertip support, significantly enhanced their balance and lowered their thigh muscle activity by up to 30%. This demonstrates how a light touch strategy could have been central to our ancestor’s ability to avoid falls and reduce the mechanical and metabolic cost of arboreal feeding and movement. Our results may also indicate that some adaptations in the hand that facilitated continued access to forest canopy may have complemented, rather than opposed, adaptations that facilitated precise manipulation and tool use

Effects of insurance status on children's access to specialty care: a systematic review of the literature

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The current climate of rising health care costs has led many health insurance programs to limit benefits, which may be problematic for children needing specialty care. Findings from pediatric primary care may not transfer to pediatric specialty care because pediatric specialists are often located in academic medical centers where institutional rules determine accepted insurance. Furthermore, coverage for pediatric specialty care may vary more widely due to systematic differences in inclusion on preferred provider lists, lack of availability in staff model HMOs, and requirements for referral. Our objective was to review the literature on the effects of insurance status on children's access to specialty care.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a systematic review of original research published between January 1, 1992 and July 31, 2006. Searches were performed using Pubmed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 30 articles identified, the majority use number of specialty visits or referrals to measure access. Uninsured children have poorer access to specialty care than insured children. Children with public coverage have better access to specialty care than uninsured children, but poorer access compared to privately insured children. Findings on the effects of managed care are mixed.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Insurance coverage is clearly an important factor in children's access to specialty care. However, we cannot determine the structure of insurance that leads to the best use of appropriate, quality care by children. Research about specific characteristics of health plans and effects on health outcomes is needed to determine a structure of insurance coverage that provides optimal access to specialty care for children.</p