Enhanced secondary analysis of survival data: reconstructing the data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The results of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) on time-to-event outcomes that are usually reported are median time to events and Cox Hazard Ratio. These do not constitute the sufficient statistics required for meta-analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis, and their use in secondary analyses requires strong assumptions that may not have been adequately tested. In order to enhance the quality of secondary data analyses, we propose a method which derives from the published Kaplan Meier survival curves a close approximation to the original individual patient time-to-event data from which they were generated.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We develop an algorithm that maps from digitised curves back to KM data by finding numerical solutions to the inverted KM equations, using where available information on number of events and numbers at risk. The reproducibility and accuracy of survival probabilities, median survival times and hazard ratios based on reconstructed KM data was assessed by comparing published statistics (survival probabilities, medians and hazard ratios) with statistics based on repeated reconstructions by multiple observers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The validation exercise established there was no material systematic error and that there was a high degree of reproducibility for all statistics. Accuracy was excellent for survival probabilities and medians, for hazard ratios reasonable accuracy can only be obtained if at least numbers at risk or total number of events are reported.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The algorithm is a reliable tool for meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analyses of RCTs reporting time-to-event data. It is recommended that all RCTs should report information on numbers at risk and total number of events alongside KM curves.</p

Exploration Behaviour Is Not Associated with Chick Provisioning in Great Tits

In biparental systems, members of the same pair can vary substantially in the amount of parental care they provide to offspring. The extent of this asymmetry should depend on the relative costs and benefits of care. Individual variation in personality is likely to influence this trade-off, and hence is a promising candidate to explain differences in care. In addition, plasticity in parental care may also be associated with personality differences. Using exploration behaviour (EB) as a measure of personality, we investigated these possibilities using both natural and experimental data from a wild population of great tits (Parus major). Contrary to predictions, we found no association between EB and natural variation in provisioning behaviour. Nor was EB linked to responsiveness to experimentally increased brood demand. These results are initially surprising given substantial data from other studies suggesting personality should influence investment in parental care. However, they are consistent with a recent study showing selection on EB is weak and highly context-specific in the focal population. This emphasises the difficulty faced by personality studies attempting to make predictions based on previous work, given that personalities often vary among populations of the same species

Does personality affect premating isolation between locally-adapted populations?

Background: One aspect of premating isolation between diverging, locally-adapted population pairs is female mate choice for resident over alien male phenotypes. Mating preferences often show considerable individual variation, and whether or not certain individuals are more likely to contribute to population interbreeding remains to be studied. In the Poecilia mexicana-species complex different ecotypes have adapted to hydrogen sulfide (H2S)-toxic springs, and females from adjacent non-sulfidic habitats prefer resident over sulfide-adapted males. We asked if consistent individual differences in behavioral tendencies (animal personality) predict the strength and direction of the mate choice component of premating isolation in this system. Results: We characterized focal females for their personality and found behavioral measures of ‘novel object exploration’, ‘boldness’ and ‘activity in an unknown area’ to be highly repeatable. Furthermore, the interaction term between our measures of exploration and boldness affected focal females’ strength of preference (SOP) for the resident male phenotype in dichotomous association preference tests. High exploration tendencies were coupled with stronger SOPs for resident over alien mating partners in bold, but not shy, females. Shy and/or little explorative females had an increased likelihood of preferring the non-resident phenotype and thus, are more likely to contribute to rare population hybridization. When we offered large vs. small conspecific stimulus males instead, less explorative females showed stronger preferences for large male body size. However, this effect disappeared when the size difference between the stimulus males was small. Conclusions: Our results suggest that personality affects female mate choice in a very nuanced fashion. Hence, population differences in the distribution of personality types could be facilitating or impeding reproductive isolation between diverging populations depending on the study system and the male trait(s) upon which females base their mating decisions, respectively

Gender differences in the use of cardiovascular interventions in HIV-positive persons; the D:A:D Study

Peer reviewe

The Salivary Secretome of the Tsetse Fly Glossina pallidipes (Diptera: Glossinidae) Infected by Salivary Gland Hypertrophy Virus

Tsetse fly (Diptera; Glossinidae) transmits two devastating diseases to farmers (human African Trypanosomiasis; HAT) and their livestock (Animal African Trypanosomiasis; AAT) in 37 sub-Saharan African countries. During the rainy seasons, vast areas of fertile, arable land remain uncultivated as farmers flee their homes due to the presence of tsetse. Available drugs against trypanosomiasis are ineffective and difficult to administer. Control of the tsetse vector by Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) has been effective. This method involves repeated release of sterilized males into wild tsetse populations, which compete with wild type males for females. Upon mating, there is no offspring, leading to reduction in tsetse populations and thus relief from trypanosomiasis. The SIT method requires large-scale tsetse rearing to produce sterile males. However, tsetse colony productivity is hampered by infections with the salivary gland hypertrophy virus, which is transmitted via saliva as flies take blood meals during membrane feeding and often leads to colony collapse. Here, we investigated the salivary gland secretome proteins of virus-infected tsetse to broaden our understanding of virus infection, transmission and pathology. By this approach, we obtain insight in tsetse-hytrosavirus interactions and identified potential candidate proteins as targets for developing biotechnological strategies to control viral infections in tsetse colonies

The great tit HapMap project: A continental‐scale analysis of genomic variation in a songbird

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordData availability statement: The code to reproduce the results is available on Github: https://github.com/lgs85/SpurginBosse_Hapmap. The data, including the Plink-formatted genotype files from all populations, and the downstream outputs are on Dryad: https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.w3r2280z5.A major aim of evolutionary biology is to understand why patterns of genomic diversity vary within taxa and space. Large-scale genomic studies of widespread species are useful for studying how environment and demography shape patterns of genomic divergence. Here, we describe one of the most geographically comprehensive surveys of genomic variation in a wild vertebrate to date; the great tit (Parus major) HapMap project. We screened ca 500,000 SNP markers across 647 individuals from 29 populations, spanning ~30 degrees of latitude and 40 degrees of longitude – almost the entire geographical range of the European subspecies. Genome-wide variation was consistent with a recent colonisation across Europe from a South-East European refugium, with bottlenecks and reduced genetic diversity in island populations. Differentiation across the genome was highly heterogeneous, with clear ‘islands of differentiation’, even among populations with very low levels of genome-wide differentiation. Low local recombination rates were a strong predictor of high local genomic differentiation (FST), especially in island and peripheral mainland populations, suggesting that the interplay between genetic drift and recombination causes highly heterogeneous differentiation landscapes. We also detected genomic outlier regions that were confined to one or more peripheral great tit populations, probably as a result of recent directional selection at the species' range edges. Haplotype-based measures of selection were related to recombination rate, albeit less strongly, and highlighted population-specific sweeps that likely resulted from positive selection. Our study highlights how comprehensive screens of genomic variation in wild organisms can provide unique insights into spatio-temporal evolutionary dynamics.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)European Research Council (ERC)Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC

Evolution of sex-specific pace-of-life syndromes: genetic architecture and physiological mechanisms

Sex differences in life history, physiology, and behavior are nearly ubiquitous across taxa, owing to sex-specific selection that arises from different reproductive strategies of the sexes. The pace-of-life syndrome (POLS) hypothesis predicts that most variation in such traits among individuals, populations, and species falls along a slow-fast pace-of-life continuum. As a result of their different reproductive roles and environment, the sexes also commonly differ in pace-of-life, with important consequences for the evolution of POLS. Here, we outline mechanisms for how males and females can evolve differences in POLS traits and in how such traits can covary differently despite constraints resulting from a shared genome. We review the current knowledge of the genetic basis of POLS traits and suggest candidate genes and pathways for future studies. Pleiotropic effects may govern many of the genetic correlations, but little is still known about the mechanisms involved in trade-offs between current and future reproduction and their integration with behavioral variation. We highlight the importance of metabolic and hormonal pathways in mediating sex differences in POLS traits; however, there is still a shortage of studies that test for sex specificity in molecular effects and their evolutionary causes. Considering whether and how sexual dimorphism evolves in POLS traits provides a more holistic framework to understand how behavioral variation is integrated with life histories and physiology, and we call for studies that focus on examining the sex-specific genetic architecture of this integration