Prediction of individual probabilities of livebirth and multiple birth events following in vitro fertilization (IVF): a new outcomes counselling tool for IVF providers and patients using HFEA metrics

In vitro fertilization (IVF) has become a standard treatment for subfertility after it was demonstrated to be of value to humans in 1978. However, the introduction of IVF into mainstream clinical practice has been accompanied by concerns regarding the number of multiple gestations that it can produce, as multiple births present significant medical consequences to mothers and offspring. When considering IVF as a treatment modality, a balance must be set between the chance of having a live birth and the risk of having a multiple birth. As IVF is often a costly decision for patients—financially, medically, and emotionally—there is benefit from estimating a patient’s specific chance that IVF could result in a birth as fertility treatment options are contemplated. Historically, a patient’s “chance of success” with IVF has been approximated from institution-based statistics, rather than on the basis of any particular clinical parameter (except age). Furthermore, the likelihood of IVF resulting in a twin or triplet outcome must be acknowledged for each patient, given the known increased complications of multiple gestation and consequent increased risk of poor birth outcomes. In this research, we describe a multivariate risk assessment model that incorporates metrics adapted from a national 7.5-year sampling of the Human Fertilisation & Embryology Authority (HFEA) dataset (1991–1998) to predict reproductive outcome (including estimation of multiple birth) after IVF. To our knowledge, http://www.formyodds.com is the first Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) application to predict IVF outcome. The approach also includes a confirmation functionality, where clinicians can agree or disagree with the computer-generated outcome predictions. It is anticipated that the emergence of predictive tools will augment the reproductive endocrinology consultation, improve the medical informed consent process by tailoring the outcome assessment to each patient, and reduce the potential for adverse outcomes with IVF

D-type supersymmetry breaking and brane-to-brane gravity mediation

We revisit the issue of gravitational contributions to soft masses in five-dimensional sequestered models. We point out that, unlike for the case of F-type supersymmetry breaking, for D-type breaking these effects generically give positive soft masses squared for the sfermions. This drastically improves model building. We discuss the phenomenological implications of our result.Comment: 16 pages. Typos corrected, minor clarifications. To be published in Phys. Lett.

A mathematical framework for critical transitions: normal forms, variance and applications

Critical transitions occur in a wide variety of applications including mathematical biology, climate change, human physiology and economics. Therefore it is highly desirable to find early-warning signs. We show that it is possible to classify critical transitions by using bifurcation theory and normal forms in the singular limit. Based on this elementary classification, we analyze stochastic fluctuations and calculate scaling laws of the variance of stochastic sample paths near critical transitions for fast subsystem bifurcations up to codimension two. The theory is applied to several models: the Stommel-Cessi box model for the thermohaline circulation from geoscience, an epidemic-spreading model on an adaptive network, an activator-inhibitor switch from systems biology, a predator-prey system from ecology and to the Euler buckling problem from classical mechanics. For the Stommel-Cessi model we compare different detrending techniques to calculate early-warning signs. In the epidemics model we show that link densities could be better variables for prediction than population densities. The activator-inhibitor switch demonstrates effects in three time-scale systems and points out that excitable cells and molecular units have information for subthreshold prediction. In the predator-prey model explosive population growth near a codimension two bifurcation is investigated and we show that early-warnings from normal forms can be misleading in this context. In the biomechanical model we demonstrate that early-warning signs for buckling depend crucially on the control strategy near the instability which illustrates the effect of multiplicative noise.Comment: minor corrections to previous versio

Thermodynamics of pyrope-majorite, Mg3Al2Si3O12-Mg4Si4O12, solid solution from atomistic model calculations

Static lattice energy calculations, based on empirical pair potentials have been performed for a large set of different structures with compositions between pyrope and majorite, and with different states of order of octahedral cations. The energies have been cluster expanded using pair and quaternary terms. The derived ordering constants have been used to constrain Monte Carlo simulations of temperature-dependent properties in the ranges of 1073 3673K and 0 20 GPa. The free energies of mixing have been calculated using the method of thermodynamic integration. At zero pressure the cubic/tetragonal transition is predicted for pure majorite at 3300 K. The transition temperature decreases with the increase of the pyrope mole fraction. A miscibility gap associated with the transition starts to develop at about 2000K and xmaj 0.8, and widens with the decrease in temperature and the increase in pressure. Activity composition relations in the range of 0 20 GPa and 1073 2673K are described with the help of a high-order Redlich Kister polynomial

Implementation of a pharmacogenomics consult service to support the INGENIOUS trial

Hospital systems increasingly utilize pharmacogenomic testing to inform clinical prescribing. Successful implementation efforts have been modeled at many academic centers. In contrast, this report provides insights into the formation of a pharmacogenomics consultation service at a safety-net hospital, which predominantly serves low-income, uninsured, and vulnerable populations. The report describes the INdiana GENomics Implementation: an Opportunity for the UnderServed (INGENIOUS) trial and addresses concerns of adjudication, credentialing, and funding

Anthropogenic Space Weather

Anthropogenic effects on the space environment started in the late 19th century and reached their peak in the 1960s when high-altitude nuclear explosions were carried out by the USA and the Soviet Union. These explosions created artificial radiation belts near Earth that resulted in major damages to several satellites. Another, unexpected impact of the high-altitude nuclear tests was the electromagnetic pulse (EMP) that can have devastating effects over a large geographic area (as large as the continental United States). Other anthropogenic impacts on the space environment include chemical release ex- periments, high-frequency wave heating of the ionosphere and the interaction of VLF waves with the radiation belts. This paper reviews the fundamental physical process behind these phenomena and discusses the observations of their impacts.Comment: 71 pages, 35 figure

Detector Description and Performance for the First Coincidence Observations between LIGO and GEO

For 17 days in August and September 2002, the LIGO and GEO interferometer gravitational wave detectors were operated in coincidence to produce their first data for scientific analysis. Although the detectors were still far from their design sensitivity levels, the data can be used to place better upper limits on the flux of gravitational waves incident on the earth than previous direct measurements. This paper describes the instruments and the data in some detail, as a companion to analysis papers based on the first data.Comment: 41 pages, 9 figures 17 Sept 03: author list amended, minor editorial change

Spectroscopy of neutron-deficient nuclei near the Z=82 closed shell via symmetric fusion reactions

In-beam and decay-spectroscopy studies of neutron-deficient nuclei near the Z=82 shell closure were carried out using the Fragment Mass Analyzer (FMA) and the Gammasphere array, in conjunction with symmetric fusion reactions and the Recoil Decay Tagging (RDT) technique. The primary motivation was to study properties of 179Tl and 180Tl, and their daughter, and grand-daughter isotopes. For the first time, in-beam structures associated with 179Tl and 180Tl were observed, as well as γ rays associated with the 180Tl α decay. No long-lived isomer was identified in 180Tl, in contrast with the known systematics for the heavier odd-odd Tl isotopes