1,502 research outputs found
The power of Bayesian evidence in astronomy
We discuss the use of the Bayesian evidence ratio, or Bayes factor, for model
selection in astronomy. We treat the evidence ratio as a statistic and
investigate its distribution over an ensemble of experiments, considering both
simple analytical examples and some more realistic cases, which require
numerical simulation. We find that the evidence ratio is a noisy statistic, and
thus it may not be sensible to decide to accept or reject a model based solely
on whether the evidence ratio reaches some threshold value. The odds suggested
by the evidence ratio bear no obvious relationship to the power or Type I error
rate of a test based on the evidence ratio. The general performance of such
tests is strongly affected by the signal to noise ratio in the data, the
assumed priors, and the threshold in the evidence ratio that is taken as
`decisive'. The comprehensiveness of the model suite under consideration is
also very important. The usefulness of the evidence ratio approach in a given
problem can be assessed in advance of the experiment, using simple models and
numerical approximations. In many cases, this approach can be as informative as
a much more costly full-scale Bayesian analysis of a complex problem.Comment: 11 pages; MNRAS in pres
Should we doubt the cosmological constant?
While Bayesian model selection is a useful tool to discriminate between
competing cosmological models, it only gives a relative rather than an absolute
measure of how good a model is. Bayesian doubt introduces an unknown benchmark
model against which the known models are compared, thereby obtaining an
absolute measure of model performance in a Bayesian framework. We apply this
new methodology to the problem of the dark energy equation of state, comparing
an absolute upper bound on the Bayesian evidence for a presently unknown dark
energy model against a collection of known models including a flat LambdaCDM
scenario. We find a strong absolute upper bound to the Bayes factor B between
the unknown model and LambdaCDM, giving B < 3. The posterior probability for
doubt is found to be less than 6% (with a 1% prior doubt) while the probability
for LambdaCDM rises from an initial 25% to just over 50% in light of the data.
We conclude that LambdaCDM remains a sufficient phenomenological description of
currently available observations and that there is little statistical room for
model improvement.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figure
Measuring the effective complexity of cosmological models
We introduce a statistical measure of the effective model complexity, called
the Bayesian complexity. We demonstrate that the Bayesian complexity can be
used to assess how many effective parameters a set of data can support and that
it is a useful complement to the model likelihood (the evidence) in model
selection questions. We apply this approach to recent measurements of cosmic
microwave background anisotropies combined with the Hubble Space Telescope
measurement of the Hubble parameter. Using mildly non-informative priors, we
show how the 3-year WMAP data improves on the first-year data by being able to
measure both the spectral index and the reionization epoch at the same time. We
also find that a non-zero curvature is strongly disfavored. We conclude that
although current data could constrain at least seven effective parameters, only
six of them are required in a scheme based on the Lambda-CDM concordance
cosmology.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, revised version accepted for publication in PRD,
updated with WMAP3 result
Phonon-Assisted Two-Photon Interference from Remote Quantum Emitters
Photonic quantum technologies are on the verge offinding applications in everyday life with quantum cryptography andquantum simulators on the horizon. Extensive research has beencarried out to identify suitable quantum emitters and single epitaxialquantum dots have emerged as near-optimal sources of bright, on-demand, highly indistinguishable single photons and entangledphoton-pairs. In order to build up quantum networks, it is essentialto interface remote quantum emitters. However, this is still anoutstanding challenge, as the quantum states of dissimilarâartificialatomsâhave to be prepared on-demand with highfidelity and thegenerated photons have to be made indistinguishable in all possibledegrees of freedom. Here, we overcome this major obstacle and show an unprecedented two-photon interference (visibility of 51±5%) from remote strain-tunable GaAs quantum dots emitting on-demand photon-pairs. We achieve this result by exploiting forthefirst time the full potential of a novel phonon-assisted two-photon excitation scheme, which allows for the generation ofhighly indistinguishable (visibility of 71±9%) entangled photon-pairs (fidelity of 90±2%), enables push-button biexciton statepreparation (fidelity of 80±2%) and outperforms conventional resonant two-photon excitation schemes in terms of robustnessagainst environmental decoherence. Our results mark an important milestone for the practical realization of quantum repeatersand complex multiphoton entanglement experiments involving dissimilar artificial atom
Bayesian analysis of Friedmannless cosmologies
Assuming only a homogeneous and isotropic universe and using both the 'Gold'
Supernova Type Ia sample of Riess et al. and the results from the Supernova
Legacy Survey, we calculate the Bayesian evidence of a range of different
parameterizations of the deceleration parameter. We consider both spatially
flat and curved models. Our results show that although there is strong evidence
in the data for an accelerating universe, there is little evidence that the
deceleration parameter varies with redshift.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figure
Flat Tree-level Inflationary Potentials in Light of CMB and LSS Data
We use cosmic microwave background and large scale structure data to test a
broad and physically well-motivated class of inflationary models: those with
flat tree-level potentials (typical in supersymmetry). The non-trivial features
of the potential arise from radiative corrections which give a simple
logarithmic dependence on the inflaton field, making the models very
predictive. We also consider a modified scenario with new physics beyond a
certain high-energy cut-off showing up as non-renormalizable operators (NRO) in
the inflaton field. We find that both kinds of models fit remarkably well CMB
and LSS data, with very few free parameters. Besides, a large part of these
models naturally predict a reasonable number of e-folds. A robust feature of
these scenarios is the smallness of tensor perturbations (r < 10^{-3}). The NRO
case can give a sizeable running of the spectral index while achieving a
sufficient number of e-folds. We use Bayesian model comparison tools to assess
the relative performance of the models. We believe that these scenarios can be
considered as a standard physical class of inflationary models, on a similar
footing with monomial potentials.Comment: 42 LaTeX pages, 8 figure
Global analysis of the pMSSM in light of the Fermi GeV excess: prospects for the LHC Run-II and astroparticle experiments
We present a new global fit of the 19-dimensional phenomenological Minimal
Supersymmetric Standard Model (pMSSM-19) that comply with all the latest
experimental results from dark matter indirect, direct and accelerator dark
matter searches. We show that the model provides a satisfactory explanation of
the excess of gamma-rays from the Galactic centre observed by the Fermi~Large
Area Telescope, assuming that it is produced by the annihilation of neutralinos
in the Milky Way halo. We identify two regions that pass all the constraints:
the first corresponds to neutralinos with a mass ~80-100 GeV annihilating into
WW with a branching ratio of 95% ; the second to heavier neutralinos, with mass
~180-200 GeV annihilating into t tbar with a branching ratio of 87%. We show
that neutralinos compatible with the Galactic centre GeV excess will soon be
within the reach of LHC run-II -- notably through searches for charginos and
neutralinos, squarks and light smuons -- and of Xenon1T, thanks to its
unprecedented sensitivity to spin-dependent cross-section off neutrons.Comment: Minor changes following referee reports. Main conclusions unchanged.
Matches version published in JCA
Engineering of quantum dot photon sources via electro-elastic fields
The possibility to generate and manipulate non-classical light using the
tools of mature semiconductor technology carries great promise for the
implementation of quantum communication science. This is indeed one of the main
driving forces behind ongoing research on the study of semiconductor quantum
dots. Often referred to as artificial atoms, quantum dots can generate single
and entangled photons on demand and, unlike their natural counterpart, can be
easily integrated into well-established optoelectronic devices. However, the
inherent random nature of the quantum dot growth processes results in a lack of
control of their emission properties. This represents a major roadblock towards
the exploitation of these quantum emitters in the foreseen applications. This
chapter describes a novel class of quantum dot devices that uses the combined
action of strain and electric fields to reshape the emission properties of
single quantum dots. The resulting electro-elastic fields allow for control of
emission and binding energies, charge states, and energy level splittings and
are suitable to correct for the quantum dot structural asymmetries that usually
prevent these semiconductor nanostructures from emitting polarization-entangled
photons. Key experiments in this field are presented and future directions are
discussed.Comment: to appear as a book chapter in a compilation "Engineering the
Atom-Photon Interaction" published by Springer in 2015, edited by A.
Predojevic and M. W. Mitchel
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