Anthropogenic heat flux: advisable spatial resolutions when input data are scarce

Anthropogenic heat flux (QF) may be significant in cities, especially under low solar irradiance and at night. It is of interest to many practitioners including meteorologists, city planners and climatologists. QF estimates at fine temporal and spatial resolution can be derived from models that use varying amounts of empirical data. This study compares simple and detailed models in a European megacity (London) at 500 m spatial resolution. The simple model (LQF) uses spatially resolved population data and national energy statistics. The detailed model (GQF) additionally uses local energy, road network and workday population data. The Fractions Skill Score (FSS) and bias are used to rate the skill with which the simple model reproduces the spatial patterns and magnitudes of QF, and its sub-components, from the detailed model. LQF skill was consistently good across 90% of the city, away from the centre and major roads. The remaining 10% contained elevated emissions and B hot spots ^ representing 30 – 40% of the total city-wide energy. This structure was lost because it requires workday population, spatially resolved building energy consumption and/or road network data. Daily total building and traffic energy consumption estimates from national data were within ± 40% of local values. Progressively coarser spatial resolutions to 5 km improved skill for total Q F , but important features (hot spots, transport network) were lost at all resolutions when residential population controlled spatial variations. The results demonstrate that simple QF models should be applied with conservative spatial resolution in cities that, like London, exhibit time-varying energy use patterns

A Nuclear Solution to Climate Change?

The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous changes in climate. An ambitious target would be stabilization at an equivalent doubling of the preindustrial CO2 concentration. To achieve this, fossil-fuel carbon emissions in 2050 should not exceed their current level, despite an expected doubling or tripling in world demand for energy. Lacking a crystal ball that tells us the future, we simply select one possible scenario that achieves the emissions target. We assume that by 2050, world population and average per-capita energy consumption each rise by 50%, with annual world primary energy consumption reaching 900 EJ (exajoules, 1018 joules). A roughly equal contribution of 300 EJ each is assumed for conventional fossil fuels, for renewable and "decarbonized" fossil fuel sources, and for nuclear fission. This is a challenging scenario, especially because restraining the increase in average per-capita energy consumption in the face of the economic aspirations of developing countries will require substantial improvements in energy efficiency

Spatial and temporal patterns of surface-atmosphere energy exchange in a dense urban environment using scintillometry

Spatially-integrated measurements of the surface energy balance (SEB) are needed in urban areas to evaluate urban climate models and satellite observations. Scintillometers allow observations of sensible heat flux (QH) over much larger areas than techniques such as eddy covariance (EC), however methods are needed to partition between remaining unmeasured SEB terms. This is the first study to use observed spatial and temporal patterns of QH from a scintillometer network to constrain estimates of remaining SEB terms in a dense, heterogeneous urban environment. Results show that QH dominates the surface energy balance in central London throughout the year, with expected diurnal courses and seasonal trends in QH magnitude related to solar radiation input. Measurements also reveal a clear anthropogenic component of QH with winter (summer) weekday QH values 11.7% (5.1%) higher than weekends. Spatially, QH magnitude is correlated with vegetation and building land cover fraction in the measurement source areas. Spatial analysis provides additional evidence of anthropogenic influence with highest weekday/weekend ratios (1.55) from the City of London. Spatial differences are used to estimate horizontal advection and a novel method to estimate monthly latent heat flux is developed based on observed land cover and wet-dry surface variations in normalized QH. Annual anthropogenic heat emissions are estimated to be 46.3 W m−2 using an energy balance residual approach. The methods presented here have potential to significantly enhance understanding of urban areas, particularly in areas with tall buildings where there is little observational data

Effect of surface interactions on the hysteresis of capillary condensation in nanopores

Gas adsorption and liquid desorption of a number of organic vapors in anodized nanoporous alumina, with controlled geometry (cylindrical pore diameters from 10 to 60 nm), are studied using optical interferometry. The narrow-diameter distribution of disconnected pores allows checking the validity of the (long-predicted but not experimentally verified) Kelvin equation without any adjustable parameters, modeling or other assumptions. Evaporation occurs at liquid-vapor equilibrium according to this equation, whereas condensation occurs from metastable states of the vapor phase by nucleation, enhanced by surface defects inside the nanopores. This produces hysteresis, in qualitative agreement with theoretical models and simulations that use Van der Waals interactions between the fluid and the pore surface. The reproducibility of the hysteresis depends on the strength of these interactions, which play an important role in the dynamics of capillary condensation

Beam Test Performance and Simulation of Prototypes for the ALICE Silicon Pixel Detector

The silicon pixel detector (SPD) of the ALICE experiment in preparation at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN is designed to provide the precise vertex reconstruction needed for measuring heavy flavor production in heavy ion collisions at very high energies and high multiplicity. The SPD forms the innermost part of the Inner Tracking System (ITS) which also includes silicon drift and silicon strip detectors. Single assembly prototypes of the ALICE SPD have been tested at the CERN SPS using high energy proton/pion beams in 2002 and 2003. We report on the experimental determination of the spatial precision. We also report on the first combined beam test with prototypes of the other ITS silicon detector technologies at the CERN SPS in November 2004. The issue of SPD simulation is briefly discussed.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures, prepared for proceedings of 7th International Position Sensitive Detectors Conference, Liverpool, Sept. 200

Accelerator-based conversion (ABC) of weapons plutonium: Plant layout study and related design issues

In preparation for and in support of a detailed R and D Plan for the Accelerator-Based Conversion (ABC) of weapons plutonium, an ABC Plant Layout Study was conducted at the level of a pre-conceptual engineering design. The plant layout is based on an adaptation of the Molten-Salt Breeder Reactor (MSBR) detailed conceptual design that was completed in the early 1070s. Although the ABC Plant Layout Study included the Accelerator Equipment as an essential element, the engineering assessment focused primarily on the Target; Primary System (blanket and all systems containing plutonium-bearing fuel salt); the Heat-Removal System (secondary-coolant-salt and supercritical-steam systems); Chemical Processing; Operation and Maintenance; Containment and Safety; and Instrumentation and Control systems. Although constrained primarily to a reflection of an accelerator-driven (subcritical) variant of MSBR system, unique features and added flexibilities of the ABC suggest improved or alternative approaches to each of the above-listed subsystems; these, along with the key technical issues in need of resolution through a detailed R&D plan for ABC are described on the bases of the ``strawman`` or ``point-of-departure`` plant layout that resulted from this study

Urban signals in high-resolution weather and climate simulations: role of urban land-surface characterisation

Two urban schemes within the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) are evaluated offline against multi-year flux observations in the densely built-up city centre of London and in suburban Swindon (UK): (i) the 1-tile slab model, used in climate simulations, (ii) the 2-tile canopy model MORUSES (Met Office–Reading Urban Surface Exchange Scheme), used for numerical weather pre- diction over the UK. Offline, both models perform better at the suburban site, where differences between the urban schemes are less pronounced due to larger vegetation fractions. At both sites, the outgoing short- and longwave radiation is more accurately represented than the turbulent heat fluxes. The seasonal varia- tions of model skill are large in London, where the sensible heat flux in autumn and winter is strongly under-predicted if the large city-centre magnitudes of anthro- pogenic heat emissions are not represented. The delayed timing of the sensible heat flux in the 1-tile model in London results in large negative bias in the morning. The partitioning of the urban surface into canyon and roof in MORUSES improves this as the roof-tile is modelled with a very low thermal inertia, but phase and amplitude of the gridbox-averaged flux critically depend on accurate knowledge of the plan-area fractions of streets and buildings. Not representing non-urban land- cover (e.g. vegetation, inland water) in London results in severely under-predicted latent heat fluxes. Control runs demonstrate that the skill of both models can be greatly improved by providing accurate land-cover and morphology information and using representative anthropogenic heat emissions, which is essential if the model output is intended to inform integrated urban services

The International Urban Energy Balance Models Comparison Project: First Results from Phase 1

A large number of urban surface energy balance models now exist with different assumptions about the important features of the surface and exchange processes that need to be incorporated. To date, no com- parison of these models has been conducted; in contrast, models for natural surfaces have been compared extensively as part of the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes. Here, the methods and first results from an extensive international comparison of 33 models are presented. The aim of the comparison overall is to understand the complexity required to model energy and water exchanges in urban areas. The degree of complexity included in the models is outlined and impacts on model performance are discussed. During the comparison there have been significant developments in the models with resulting improvements in performance (root-mean-square error falling by up to two-thirds). Evaluation is based on a dataset containing net all-wave radiation, sensible heat, and latent heat flux observations for an industrial area in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The aim of the comparison is twofold: to identify those modeling ap- proaches that minimize the errors in the simulated fluxes of the urban energy balance and to determine the degree of model complexity required for accurate simulations. There is evidence that some classes of models perform better for individual fluxes but no model performs best or worst for all fluxes. In general, the simpler models perform as well as the more complex models based on all statistical measures. Generally the schemes have best overall capability to model net all-wave radiation and least capability to model latent heat flux

Prevalence of Buruli Ulcer in Akonolinga Health District, Cameroon: Results of a Cross Sectional Survey

As long as there is no strategy to prevent Buruli ulcer, the early detection and treatment of cases remains the most promising control strategy. Buruli ulcer is most common in remote rural areas where people have little contact with health structures. Information on the number of existing cases in the population and where they go to seek treatment is important for project planning and evaluation. Health structure based surveillance systems cannot provide this information, and previous prevalence surveys did not provide information on spatial distribution and coverage. We did a survey using centric systematic area sampling in a Health District in Cameroon to estimate prevalence and project coverage. We found the method was easy to use and very useful for project planning. It identified priority areas with relatively high prevalence and low coverage and provided an estimate of the number of existing cases in the population of the health district. The active case finding component of the method used served as an awareness campaign and was an integrated part of the project, creating a network of health delegates trained on Buruli ulcer

Local-scale urban meteorological parameterization scheme (LUMPS): longwave radiation parameterization and seasonality-related developments

Recent developments to the Local-scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS), a simple model able to simulate the urban energy balance, are presented. The major development is the coupling of LUMPS to the Net All-Wave Radiation Parameterization (NARP). Other enhancements include that the model now accounts for the changing availability of water at the surface, seasonal variations of active vegetation, and the anthropogenic heat flux, while maintaining the need for only commonly available meteorological observations and basic surface characteristics. The incoming component of the longwave radiation (L↓) in NARP is improved through a simple relation derived using cloud cover observations from a ceilometer collected in central London, England. The new L↓ formulation is evaluated with two independent multiyear datasets (Łódź, Poland, and Baltimore, Maryland) and compared with alternatives that include the original NARP and a simpler one using the National Climatic Data Center cloud observation database as input. The performance for the surface energy balance fluxes is assessed using a 2-yr dataset (Łódź). Results have an overall RMSE < 34 W m−2 for all surface energy balance fluxes over the 2-yr period whe