Probabilistic approach to decision-making under uncertainty during volcanic crises: retrospective application to the El Hierro (Spain) 2011 volcanic crisis

© 2014, The Author(s). Understanding the potential evolution of a volcanic crisis is crucial for designing effective mitigation strategies. This is especially the case for volcanoes close to densely populated regions, where inappropriate decisions may trigger widespread loss of life, economic disruption, and public distress. An outstanding goal for improving the management of volcanic crises, therefore, is to develop objective, real-time methodologies for evaluating how an emergency will develop and how scientists communicate with decision-makers. Here, we present a new model Bayesian Decision Model (BADEMO) that applies a general and flexible, probabilistic approach to managing volcanic crises. The model combines the hazard and risk factors that decision-makers need for a holistic analysis of a volcanic crisis. These factors include eruption scenarios and their probabilities of occurrence, the vulnerability of populations and their activities, and the costs of false alarms and failed forecasts. The model can be implemented before an emergency, to identify actions for reducing the vulnerability of a district; during an emergency, to identify the optimum mitigating actions and how these may change as new information is obtained; and after an emergency, to assess the effectiveness of a mitigating response and, from the results, to improve strategies before another crisis occurs. As illustrated by a retrospective analysis of the 2011 eruption of El Hierro, in the Canary Islands, BADEMO provides the basis for quantifying the uncertainty associated with each recommended action as an emergency evolves and serves as a mechanism for improving communications between scientists and decision-makers.This research has been funded by the European Commission (FP7 Theme: ENV.2011.1.3.3-1; Grant 282759: VUELCO).Peer Reviewe

Ancient DNA Analysis of 8000 B.C. Near Eastern Farmers Supports an Early Neolithic Pioneer Maritime Colonization of Mainland Europe through Cyprus and the Aegean Islands

The genetic impact associated to the Neolithic spread in Europe has been widely debated over the last 20 years. Within this context, ancient DNA studies have provided a more reliable picture by directly analyzing the protagonist populations at different regions in Europe. However, the lack of available data from the original Near Eastern farmers has limited the achieved conclusions, preventing the formulation of continental models of Neolithic expansion. Here we address this issue by presenting mitochondrial DNA data of the original Near-Eastern Neolithic communities with the aim of providing the adequate background for the interpretation of Neolithic genetic data from European samples. Sixty-three skeletons from the Pre Pottery Neolithic B (PPNB) sites of Tell Halula, Tell Ramad and Dja'de El Mughara dating between 8,700–6,600 cal. B.C. were analyzed, and 15 validated mitochondrial DNA profiles were recovered. In order to estimate the demographic contribution of the first farmers to both Central European and Western Mediterranean Neolithic cultures, haplotype and haplogroup diversities in the PPNB sample were compared using phylogeographic and population genetic analyses to available ancient DNA data from human remains belonging to the Linearbandkeramik-Alföldi Vonaldiszes Kerámia and Cardial/Epicardial cultures. We also searched for possible signatures of the original Neolithic expansion over the modern Near Eastern and South European genetic pools, and tried to infer possible routes of expansion by comparing the obtained results to a database of 60 modern populations from both regions. Comparisons performed among the 3 ancient datasets allowed us to identify K and N-derived mitochondrial DNA haplogroups as potential markers of the Neolithic expansion, whose genetic signature would have reached both the Iberian coasts and the Central European plain. Moreover, the observed genetic affinities between the PPNB samples and the modern populations of Cyprus and Crete seem to suggest that the Neolithic was first introduced into Europe through pioneer seafaring colonization

Mitochondrial DNA genetic relationships at the ancient Neolithic site of Tell Halula

The extent of racemization of aspartic acid (Asp) -expressed as D/L ratio- has been used as a marker of biomolecular degradation in ancient remains. However, Asp racemization rate is highly variable, and depends on biochemical and geochemical factors. In this paper we aim to determine to which extent the fraction analyzed and the kind of sample used may influence the D/L Asp ratios. Other factors, such as burial site and sample preservation conditions, are also considered. D/L Asp ratios were obtained in 38 ancient human samples from 30 different individuals in which Real Time PCR quantification and amplification of short mtDNA fragments had been previously achieved. Four samples were taken from bones, 16 from whole teeth and 18 from dentine. In 7 cases whole tooth and dentine fractions from the same individual were analyzed. The samples belonged to 8 archaeological sites from Pre-pottery Neolithic B (PPNB), Cardial Neolithic and Chalcolithic time periods. Results show significant differences between the D/L Asp ratios obtained in dentine and whole tooth fractions from the same tooth and individual, as well as among dentine samples from the same archaeological site and among samples of the same age from different, though nearby, archaeological sites. Ancient DNA (aDNA) could be characterized in the majority of the samples, independently from their racemization values, which suggests that other factors, apart from the sample preservation stage, are more significantly affecting the racemization rate. A generalized use of the Asp racemization ratio as a threshold value for ancient DNA preservation needs to be questioned until further methodological standardization is considered

Gonadal atresia during the gametogenic cycle of Mytilus galloprovincialis Lamarck, 1819 cultured in the ria of Vigo (northwest Iberian Peninsula)

During the gametogenic cycle of Mytilus, we observed atresic phenomena in gametes at different cycle stages. Gametes are degraded both within the follicle and throughout the gonoduct. This degradation shows two consecutive phases: lysis of cytoplasmatic structures and membranes, more evident in oocytes; and haemocytic digestion of lisated material. Environmental factors clearly influence this phenomenon. Atresia is intense in winter, decreases during spring, and rises again at the end of the gonadal cycle. In winter, it is related to overmaturation of gametes due to unfavourable conditions for stimulating spawning (low temperatures and lack of food availability). In summer, the high temperatures trigger the end of gametogenic cycle, and total degeneration and resorption of gonadal tissue.Durante el desarrollo gametogénico de Mytilus se han observado fenómenos de atresia de gametos en distintos momentos del ciclo. La degradación se produce en los folículos gonadales y a lo largo del gonoducto, e incluye dos etapas consecutivas: lisis de las estructuras y membranas citoplasmáticas, más evidente en ovocitos, y digestión hemocitaria del material lisado. La influencia de factores ambientales en este fenómeno es clara. La atresia es intensa en invierno, disminuye durante la primavera y vuelve a aumentar al final del ciclo gametogénico. En invierno se relaciona con la sobremaduración de gametos debida a condiciones desfavorables para el desove (bajas temperaturas y escasez de alimento). En verano, las altas temperaturas determinan la finalización del ciclo gametogénico y la degeneración y resorción total del tejido gonadal.Instituto Español de Oceanografí

Density and magnetic susceptibility relationships in non-magnetic granites; a “wildcard” for modeling potential fields geophysical data

EGU2020: Sharing Geoscience Online, 4-8 May 2020Geophysical surveying (both gravity and magnetic) is of great help in 3D modeling of granitic bodies at depth. As in any potential-field geophysics study, petrophysical data (density [r], magnetic susceptibility [k] and remanence) are of key importance to reduce the uncertainty during the modeling of rock volumes. Several works have already demonstrated that ¿18O or [SiO2] display a negative correlation to density and to magnetic susceptibility. These relationships are particularly stable (and linear) in the so-called ¿non-magnetic¿ granites (susceptibilities falling within the paramagnetic range; between 0 and 500 10-6 S.I.) and usually coincident with calc-alcaline (CA) compositions (very common in Variscan domains). In this work we establish robust correlations between density and magnetic susceptibility at different scales in CA granites from the Pyrenees. Other plutons from Iberia were also considered (Veiga, Monesterio). The main goal is to use the available and densely sampled nets of anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) data, performed during the 90¿s and early 2000¿s, together with new data acquired in the last few years, as an indirect measurement of density in order to carry out the 3D modelling of the gravimetric signal. We sampled some sections covering the main range of variability of magnetic susceptibility in the Mont Louis-Andorra, Maladeta and Marimanha granite bodies (Pyrenees), all three characterized by even and dense nets of AMS sites (more than 550 sites and 2500 AMS measurements). We performed new density and susceptibility measurements along two main cross-sections (Maladeta and Mont Louis-Andorra). In these outcrops, numerous measurements (usually more than 50) were taken in the field with portable susceptometers (SM20 and KT20 devices). Density data were derived from the Arquimedes principle applied on large hand samples cut in regular cubes weighting between 0.3 and 0.6 kg (whenever possible). These samples were subsampled and measured later on with a KLY-3 susceptibility bridge in the laboratory. Additionally, some density data were derived from the geometry and weighting of AMS samples. After the calibration of portable and laboratory susceptometers, density and magnetic susceptibility were plotted together. Regressions were derived for every granite body and they usually followed a linear function similar to: r = 2600 kg/m3 + (0.5 * k [10-6 S.I.]). As previously stated, this relationship is only valid in CA and paramagnetic granites, where iron is mostly fractioned in iron-bearing phyllosilicates and the occurrence of magnetite is negligible (or at least its contribution to the bulk susceptibility). These relationships allow transforming magnetic susceptibility data into density data helping in the 3D modelling of the gravimetric signal when density data from rock samples are scarce. Given the large amount of AMS studies worldwide, together with the quickness and cost-effectiveness of susceptibility measurements with portable devices, this methodology allows densifying and homogenizing the petrophysical data when modelling granite rock volumes based on both magnetic and gravimetric signal

Petrophysical characterization of non-magnetic granites; density and magnetic susceptibility relationships

In this work we establish reliable correlations between density and magnetic susceptibility in three paramagnetic granites from the Pyrenees. In total, 128 sites (310 density measurements and >2600 susceptibility ones) were studied in the Mont Louis-Andorra, Maladeta and Marimanha granitic plutons covering the main range of variability of magnetic susceptibility. Regressions were calculated for every granitic body and an integrated linear function was obtained for the entire dataset: ρ (kg/m3) = 2566 (kg/m3) + 0.541κ (10−6 S.I.) (R:0.97). This relationship is only valid in the paramagnetic domain, where iron is mostly fractioned in iron-bearing phyllosilicates and the occurrence of magnetite is negligible (or at least its contribution to the bulk susceptibility). This relationship, likely different in other bodies, allows for transforming magnetic susceptibility data into density data, helping to constrain gravity modelling when density data from rock samples are scarce. Given the large amount of AMS studies worldwide, together with the quickness and cost-effectiveness of susceptibility measurements with portable devices, this methodology allows for densifying and homogenizing the petrophysical data when modelling granite rock volumes based on both magnetic and gravimetric signals.This work was financed by the projects GeoPiri3D (CGL2017-84901-C2-2-P), UKRIA4D (PID2019-104693GB-I00/CTA) and IMAGYN (PID2020-114273GB-C22) from the Spanish Ministry of Science (funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and “ERDF A way of making Europe”). This work is methodologically related also with the 3DGeoEU project financed by the European Commission under the ERANET Cofound action GeoERA (Grant No.: 731166). The GeoAp Research group from the Aragonian Government is also acknowledged. We are also in debt to the staff of the Petrophysical Laboratory (IGME, Tres Cantos) and to the Geophysics technicians (José Mª Llorente and Agustín González). The help of the Rock Magnetism Laboratory of the Centre Européen de Recherche et d’Enseignement de Géosciences de l’Environnement (CEREGE) in Aix en ProvenceMarseille is also acknowledged. P.C. acknowledges funding from PTA2017-14779-I and FJC2019- 041058-I (AEI-Spain) contracts. E.B. thanks the Geomodels Research Institute of the University of Barcelona and GGAC-2017SGR596 (Generalitat de Catalunya).Peer reviewe

Nuevos datos gravimétricos y geológicos de la Zona Axial y límite con la Zona Surpirenaica del Pirineo Central

El conocimiento de la geometría del subsuelo se basa en la integración de datos geológicos y geofísicos. En la Zona Axial del Pirineo Central y sector septentrional de la Zona Surpirenaica, la ausencia de perfiles de sísmica de reflexión dificulta esta labor y hace necesaria la búsqueda de otras técnicas, como la gravimetría, para inferir su estructura en profundidad. En este trabajo los equipos del IGME e ICGC han tomado 1164 nuevas estaciones gravimétricas en la zona de estudio, se han recopilado 2740 estaciones previas de las bases de datos de SITOPO (proyecto TopoIberia) e ICGC y se ha realizado su homogenización. Se ha obtenido un nuevo mapa de la anomalía de Bouguer caracterizado por un mínimo elongado de longitud de onda larga de más de -100 mGal asociado a la raíz cortical de los Pirineos. Cabe destacar la diferente respuesta gravimétrica que ofrecen los dos principales granitos de la zona de estudio, La Maladeta y Andorra-Mont Louis (menor densidad que las rocas Paleozoicas del encajante). Al SO del granito de La Maladeta aparece un mínimo relativo que se interpreta asociado a acumulaciones evaporíticas triásicas (menor densidad) en profundidad. Además se ha realizado: (i) un mapa de anomalía residual asumiendo una anomalía regional correspondiente a un polinomio de tercer grado para inferir la estructura más superficial y (ii) mapas de las derivadas vertical y horizontal de la anomalía gravimétrica residual para observar cómo varían espacialmente los valores de densidad de las rocas existentes. Este trabajo destaca el potencial de la gravimetría en el estudio de la estructura en profundidad de orógenos y cinturones de pliegues y cabalgamientos con presencia de rocas ígneas y/o evaporíticas con valores de densidad menores al de las rocas sedimentarias encajante

Basement and cover architecture in the Central Pyrenees constrained by gravity data

A new gravity survey (1164 gravity stations and 180 samples for density analysis) combined with two new geological cross sections has been carried out in a sector of the Central Pyrenees in order to improve the characterization of basement and cover architecture. From North to South, the study area comprises the southern half of the Axial Zone and the northernmost part of the South-Pyrenean Zone. New gravity data were combined with previous existing databases to obtain the Bouguer and residual anomaly maps of the study area. The two cross sections, oriented NNE–SSW, were built from field data and previous surficial and subsurface data and cross the La Maladeta plutonic complex. The residual anomaly map shows values ranging from −18 to 16 mGal and anomalies mainly oriented N120E. The two 2.5D modelled cross sections show similar observed gravity curves coinciding with similar interpreted structural architecture. Data show a gravity high oriented N120E coinciding with the Orri basement thrust sheet and an important gravity depression, with the same orientation, coinciding with the leading edge at depth of the Rialp basement thrust sheet and interpreted as linked to a large subsurface accumulation of Triassic evaporites. The volume at depth of the La Maladeta and Arties granites has been constrained through gravity modelling. This work highlights that the combination of structural geology and gravity modelling can help to determine the structural architecture of an orogen and localize accumulations of evaporites at depth.This work is part of the project CGL2017-84901-C2-2-P funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and “ERDF A way of making Europe” and project PID2020-114273GB-C22 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 from Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities. Seequent has provided us the GM-SYS module of the Oasis Montaj. The authors acknowledge the contribution of José María Llorente and Agustin González for the acquisition of the gravity data. We thank to Aigüestortes National park and Alt Pirineu Natural park their logistic support. We thank anonymous reviewer for improving the content in the manuscript. This study represents a contribution to GeoAp Research Group (E01-20R) (Aragón Government).Peer reviewe

An HDAC9-MALAT1-BRG1 complex mediates smooth muscle dysfunction in thoracic aortic aneurysm

Thoracic aortic aneurysm (TAA) has been associated with mutations affecting members of the TGF-β signaling pathway, or components and regulators of the vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) actomyosin cytoskeleton. Although both clinical groups present similar phenotypes, the existence of potential common mechanisms of pathogenesis remain obscure. Here we show that mutations affecting TGF-β signaling and VSMC cytoskeleton both lead to the formation of a ternary complex comprising the histone deacetylase HDAC9, the chromatin-remodeling enzyme BRG1, and the long noncoding RNA MALAT1. The HDAC9–MALAT1–BRG1 complex binds chromatin and represses contractile protein gene expression in association with gain of histone H3-lysine 27 trimethylation modifications. Disruption of Malat1 or Hdac9 restores contractile protein expression, improves aortic mural architecture, and inhibits experimental aneurysm growth. Thus, we highlight a shared epigenetic pathway responsible for VSMC dysfunction in both forms of TAA, with potential therapeutic implication for other known HDAC9-associated vascular diseases