Post covid-19 transition: the impact of covid on south african women entrepreneurs and the opportunities to pivot to “better” markets

COVID-19 has had a significant effect on women entrepreneurs (WE’s) in South Africa. 59% of women-owned businesses work in sectors hardest hit such as retail, restaurants, food shops and domestic services. The disruption of childcare support for working parents, especially women who tend to take on the bulk of care work in a household, has had an additional impact. This is especially true for black women subsistence farmers in rural areas as COVID-19 restrictions halted harvesting and selling. Whilst the government has introduced a number of SMME support initiatives, such as the safety net initiative, many WEs cannot benefit because they are not registered and so not meet participation criteria. Financial institutions are not positive about providing loans to small businesses during the COVID-19 pandemic due to lack of collateral and because many are currently in arrears on existing loans. Despite the obvious challenges, a number of opportunities for women in the COVID-19 era exist, particularly in online shopping and digital commerce. A recent Mastercard study revealed the exponential growth of e-commerce in South Africa – with 68% saying they have been shopping more online since the pandemic began. As the pandemic presents new business opportunities for women, especially in terms of online shopping and services, ensuring access to technology or digital solutions, affordable data and trade resources will empower more women to succeed in business.Papers presented virtually at the 39th International Southern African Transport Conference on 05 -07 July 202

Survival probability of Baltic larval cod in relation to spatial overlap paterns with their prey obtained from drift model studies

Temporal mismatch between the occurrence of larvae and their prey potentially affects the spatial overlap and thus the contact rates between predator and prey. This might have important consequences for growth and survival. We performed a case study investigating the influence of circulation patterns on the overlap of Baltic cod larvae with their prey. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was used to analyse spatio-temporally resolved drift patterns of larval Baltic cod. A coefficient of overlap between modelled larval and idealized prey distributions indicated the probability of predator–prey overlap, dependent on the hatching time of cod larvae. By performing model runs for the years 1979–1998 investigated the intra- and interannual variability of potential spatial overlap between predator and prey. Assuming uniform prey distributions, we generally found the overlap to have decreased since the mid-1980s, but with the highest variability during the 1990s. Seasonally, predator–prey overlap on the Baltic cod spawning grounds was highest in summer and lowest at the end of the cod spawning season. Horizontally variable prey distributions generally resulted in decreased overlap coefficients. Finally, we related variations in overlap patterns to the variability of Baltic cod recruitment success

Depleted marine fish stocks and ecosystem-based management: on the road to recovery, we need to be precautionary

Depleted marine fish stocks and ecosystem-based management: on the road to recovery, we need to be precautionary. -ICES Journal of Marine Science, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsq158. Precautionary management for fish stocks in need of recovery requires that likely stock increases can be distinguished from model artefacts and that the uncertainty of stock status can be handled. Yet, ICES stock assessments are predominantly deterministic and many EC management plans are designed for deterministic advice. Using the eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) stock as an example, we show how deterministic scientific advice can lead to illusive certainty of a rapid stock recovery and management decisions taken in unawareness of large uncertainties in stock status. By (i) performing sensitivity analyses of key assessment model assumptions, (ii) quantifying the uncertainty of the estimates due to data uncertainty, and (iii) developing alternative stock and ecosystem indicators, we demonstrate that estimates of recent fishing mortality and recruitment of this stock were highly uncertain and show that these uncertainties are crucial when combined with management plans based on fixed reference points of fishing mortality. We therefore call for fisheries management that does not neglect uncertainty. To this end, we outline a four-step approach to handle uncertainty of stock status in advice and management. We argue that it is time to use these four steps towards an ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management

Social-economic drivers in (political) TAC setting decisions

Sustainable use of marine resources, as targeted by Ecosystem-Based Fishery Management (EBFM), is a highly ranked policy goal. However, many marine fish stocks are still overused, challenging sustainability goals. Reasons for this policy failure are disputed and they might be manifold, including economic, institutional, and social drivers. Here, we use Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) to empirically determine and quantify the importance of interacting ecological, economic, and social drivers in a political decision making process, i.e. the setting of annual Total Allowable Catch (TAC) limits. GAMs allow non linear relationships between response and explanatory variables and due to their flexibility have successfully been applied to investigate ecosystem dynamics. Here, we use this modeling approach in a novel way to quantify social-economic-ecological feed-backs on policy decisions. European fisheries policy agreed in most cases to TACs higher than scientifically advised. We recorded this deviation for all managed European fish stocks for the time-series 1987-2014. Additionally, we make use of available time-series of socio-economic and ecological variables potentially influencing the decision, including national unemployment rates, stock status, economic growth rates, and employment in fisheries. We show that political decisions on TACs are not only driven by scientific advice on the ecological state of the stock, but that socio-economic variables have a significant effect on TACs – however not related to sound scientific advice. We conclude that scientific advice for a successful implementation of EBMF will have to address socio- economic driving forces more explicitly

Response of the meso- and macro-zooplankton community to long-term environmental changes in the southern North Sea

Abstract The North Sea (NS) is changing rapidly. Temporal variations in fishing intensity and eutrophic conditions, along with the ongoing impact of climate change, act in synergy resulting in modifications in marine communities. Although zooplankton has been extensively investigated, studies often ignore the large-sized meso- and macro-zooplankton (&amp;gt;500 µm), including holoplankton and meroplankton taxa. Here, we examined changes in abundances and community structure of these organisms between 1975 and 2018, using univariate and multivariate analysis, at different taxonomic levels. Abrupt changes in the abundances of (sub)communities occurred during different time periods and resulted in a significant restructuration of the entire community in 2006. These changes were consistent with the regime shifts reported in the NS and were a consequence of the environmental pressures on the whole community or on specific subcommunities. In the long term, the community shifted from higher abundances of hydrozoans and holoplankton taxa to an increasing abundance of decapods. Furthermore, we reveal the environmental variables that most explain the variability in the community dynamics, highlighting the importance of temperature and top-down processes. Our study underlines the relevance of investigations at different taxonomic levels, which elucidates how distinct responses to environmental changes ultimately shape the entire community structure.</jats:p

A model-based evaluation of Marine Protected Areas: the example of eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias L.).

The eastern Baltic cod stock collapsed as a consequence of climate-driven adverse hydrographic conditions and overfishing and has remained at historically low levels. Spatio-temporal fishing closures [Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)] have been implemented since 1995, to protect and restore the spawning stock. However, no signs of recovery have been observed yet, either suggesting that MPAs are an inappropriate management measure or pointing towards suboptimal closure design. We used the spatially explicit fishery simulation model ISIS-Fish to evaluate proposed and implemented fishery closures, combining an age-structured population module with a multifleet exploitation module and a management module in a single model environment. The model is parameterized based on (i) the large amount of biological knowledge available for cod and (ii) an analysis of existing spatially disaggregated fishery data. As the population dynamics of eastern Baltic cod depend strongly on the climate-driven hydrographic regime, we considered two production regimes of the stock. MPAs were only effective for stock recovery when they reduced overall fishing effort. The performance of MPAs needs to be evaluated relative to environmental regimes, especially for stocks facing strong environmental variability

Spatial structuring of Mediterranean fisheries landings in relation to their seasonal and long-term fluctuations

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordData availability: Data will be made available on request.The Western Mediterranean fisheries significantly contribute to the regional blue economy, despite evidence of ongoing, widespread overexploitation of stocks. Understanding the spatial distribution and population dynamics of species is crucial for comprehending fisheries dynamics combining local and regional scales, although the underlying processes are often neglected. In this study, we aimed to (i) evaluate the seasonal and long-term spatio-temporal fluctuations of crustacean, cephalopod, and fish populations in the Western Mediterranean, (ii) determine whether these fluctuations are driven by the spatial structure of the fisheries or synchronic species fluctuations, and (iii) compare groupings according to the individual species and life history-based groups. We used dynamic factor analysis to detect underlying patterns in a Landing Per Unit Effort (LPUE) time series (2009-2020) for 23 commercially important species and 33 ports in the Western Mediterranean. To verify the spatial structure of ports and species groupings we investigated the seasonal and long-term spatio-temporal fluctuations and common LPUE trends that exhibit non-homogeneous and species-specific trends, highlighting the importance of life history, environmental and demographic preferences. Long-term trends revealed spatial segregation with a north-south gradient, demonstrating complex population structures of Western Mediterranean resources. Seasonal patterns exhibited a varying spatial aggregation based on species-port combinations. These findings can inform the Common Fishery Policy on gaps challenging their regionalisation objectives in the Mediterranean Sea. We highlight the need for a nuanced and flexible approach and a better understanding of sub-regional processes for effective management and conservation - a current challenge for global fisheries. Our LPUE approach provides insight into population dynamics and changes in regional fisheries, relevant beyond the Mediterranean Sea

Political overfishing: Social-economic drivers in TAC setting decisions

Sustainable use of marine resources, as targeted by Ecosystem-Based Fishery Management (EBFM), is a highly ranked policy goal. However, many marine fish stocks are still overused, challenging sustainability goals. Reasons for this policy failure are disputed and they might be manifold, including economic, institutional, and social drivers. We use Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to empirically determine and quantify the importance of interacting ecological, economic, and social drivers in a political decision making process, i.e. the setting of annual Total Allowable Catch (TAC) limits. GAMs allow non linear relationships between response and explanatory variables and due to their flexibility have successfully been applied to investigate ecosystem dynamics. Here, we use this modeling approach in a novel way to quantify social-economic-ecological feed-backs on policy decisions. European fisheries policy agreed in most cases to TACs higher than scientifically advised. We recorded this deviation for all managed European fish stocks for the time-series 1987-2013. Additionally, we make use of available time-series of socio-economic and ecological variables potentially influencing the decision, including national unemployment rates, stock status, economic growth rates, and employment in fisheries. We show that political decisions on TACs are not only driven by scientific advice on the ecological state of the stock, but that socio-economic variables have a significant effect on TACs – however not related to sound scientific advice. We conclude that scientific advice for a successful implementation of EBFM will have to address socio-economic driving forces more explicitly