Tax revenue performance and vulnerability in developing countries

This paper addresses vulnerability of revenue to external shocks using export composition to capture economic structure and differentiating countries according to income levels, resource endowments and political regimes. This gives a richer characterization than previous studies. Lower income countries are vulnerable to shocks, especially in terms of trade (associated with the greatest revenue loss): democratic regimes seem to be less vulnerable to revenue losses due to shocks than non-democracies whereas revenue in resource rich is more vulnerable to shocks (except natural disasters) than non-resource rich countries. We find a negative relationship between manufacturing exports and revenue in lower income countries

Regionally acquired intestinal failure data suggest an underestimate in national service requirements

Objectives, setting and patients: With complete case referral for prolonged parenteral nutrition (PN) beyond term equivalent, serving a stable population of 1.25 million people, we describe the long-term outcome and survival of patients referred to an intestinal failure (IF) nutrition support team over the first 8 years of existence at a regional paediatric centre, and extrapolate to potential numbers of national home parenteral nutrition (HPN) cases and intestinal transplantation data. Design and outcome measures: Retrospective analysis detailing patient demographics, interventions, use of HPN, occurrence of intestinal failure-associated liver disease (IFALD), and outcomes of enteral adaptation, survival, and referral for and receipt of organ transplantation. Results: 23 patients were referred over 8 years, 20 being PN dependent within the neonatal period. Diagnoses included short bowel syndrome (SBS) (18), neuromuscular abnormalities (4) and congenital enterocyte disorder (1). 12 696 days of PN were delivered with 314 confirmed episodes of sepsis at a median of 12 episodes per patient. 144 central venous catheters (CVCs) were required at a median of four per patient. IFALD occurred in 17 (73%) patients, with 10 (44%) referred for transplant assessment. Thirteen (56%) children received HPN. Overall mortality was 44%. A significant predictor for survival in the SBS group was residual bowel >40 cm (82% vs 28%, p = 0.049). Conclusions: Survival for IF at 56% was lower than reported from non-UK supra-regional centres, and nationally collected data, possibly reflecting pre-selected referral populations. Data from regional centres with complete ascertainment may be important both when counselling parents and when planning regional and national HPN and IF specialist services

Financial development and economic growth : long-run equilibrium and transitional dynamics

We analyze the impact of financial development on economic growth. Differently from previous studies that focus mainly on balanced growth path outcomes, we also analyze the transitional dynamics of our model economy by using a finance-extended Uzawa-Lucas framework where financial intermediation affects both human and physical capital accumulation. We show that, under certain rather general conditions, economic growth may turn out to be non-monotonically related to financial development (as suggested by the most recent empirical evidence) and that too much finance may be detrimental to growth. We also show that the degree of financial development may affect the speed of convergence, which suggests that finance may play a crucial role in determining the length of the recovery process associated with exogenous shocks. Moreover, in a special case of the model, we observe that, under a realistic set of parameters, social welfare decreases with financial development, meaning that even when finance positively affects economic growth the short term costs associated with financial activities more than compensate their long run benefits

Sharing Longevity Risk: Why Governments Should Issue Longevity Bonds

Government-issued longevity bonds would allow longevity risk to be shared efficiently and fairly between generations. In exchange for paying a longevity risk premium, the current generation of retirees can look to future generations to hedge their systematic longevity risk. Longevity bonds will lead to a more secure pension savings market, together with a more efficient annuity market. By issuing longevity bonds, governments can aid the establishment of reliable longevity indices and key price points on the longevity risk term structure and help the emerging capital market in longevity-linked instruments to build on this term structure with liquid longevity derivatives

Public sector mentoring scheme: exploring the development and delivery of mentoring programmes through a multi-stakeholder perspective

Power Point presentation on Public Sector Developmental Mentoring Scheme given at the 19th Annual Mentoring and Coaching Conference, 2012

A case study evaluation of implementation of a care pathway to support normal birth in one English birth centre: anticipated benefits and unintended consequences

Background: The policy drive for the UK National Health Service (NHS) has focused on the need for high quality services informed by evidence of best practice. The introduction of care pathways and protocols to standardise care and support implementation of evidence into practice has taken place across the NHS with limited evaluation of their impact. A multi-site case study evaluation was undertaken to assess the impact of use of care pathways and protocols on clinicians, service users and service delivery. One of the five sites was a midwifery-led Birth Centre, where an adapted version of the All Wales Clinical Pathway for Normal Birth had been implemented. Methods: The overarching framework was realistic evaluation. A case study design enabled the capture of data on use of the pathway in the clinical setting, use of multiple methods of data collection and opportunity to study and understand the experiences of clinicians and service users whose care was informed by the pathway. Women attending the Birth Centre were recruited at their 36 week antenatal visit. Episodes of care during labour were observed, following which the woman and the midwife who cared for her were interviewed about use of the pathway. Interviews were also held with other key stakeholders from the study site. Qualitative data were content analysed. Results: Observations were undertaken of four women during labour. Eighteen interviews were conducted with clinicians and women, including the women whose care was observed and the midwives who cared for them, senior midwifery managers and obstetricians. The implementation of the pathway resulted in a number of anticipated benefits, including increased midwifery confidence in skills to support normal birth and promotion of team working. There were also unintended consequences, including concerns about a lack of documentation of labour care and negative impact on working relationships with obstetric and other midwifery colleagues. Women were unaware their care was informed by a care pathway. Conclusion: Care pathways are complex interventions which generate a number of consequences for practice. Those considering introduction of pathways need to ensure all relevant stakeholders are engaged with this and develop robust evaluation strategies to accompany implementation

Designing a package of sexual and reproductive health and HIV outreach services to meet the heterogeneous preferences of young people in Malawi: results from a discrete choice experiment.

BACKGROUND: This article examines young people's preferences for integrated family planning (FP) and HIV services in rural Malawi. Different hypothetical configurations for outreach services are presented using a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE). Responses are analysed using Random Parameters Logit and Generalised Mixed Logit (GMXL) models in preference space and a GMXL model parameterised in willingness-to-pay space. Simulations are used to estimate the proportion of respondents expected to choose different service packages as elements are varied individually and in combination. RESULTS: Responses were collected from 537 young people aged 15-24. Results show that when considering attending an outreach service to access family planning young people value confidentiality and the availability of HIV services including HIV counselling and testing (HCT) and HIV treatment, though significant observable and unobservable heterogeneity is present. Female respondents and those aged 20-24 were less concerned with service confidentiality compared to male respondents and those aged 15-19; respondents who were in a relationship at the time of the survey valued confidentiality more than those who reported being single. The addition of sports and recreation for young people may also be an attractive feature of a youth-friendly service; however, preferences for this attribute vary according to respondent gender. Results of the simulation modelling indicate that the most preferred service package is one that offers confidential services, both HCT and HIV treatment and sports for youth, with up to 32% of respondents expected to choose this service over a service where clients may have concerns over confidentiality, only HCT is available and there are no additional activities for young people. Estimates of willingness-to-pay for service attributes indicate that respondents were willing to pay up to USD$1.76 for confidentiality, USD$0.65 for a service offering both HCT and HIV treatment and USD$0.26 for a service including sports for youth. CONCLUSIONS: Young people were able to complete a complex DCE and appeared to trade between the different characteristics used to describe the outreach services. These findings may offer important insight to policy makers designing youth friendly SRH outreach services and providers aiming to improve the acceptability and uptake of FP services

The long run relationship between private consumption and wealth : common and idiosyncratic effects

We investigate the long run relationship between private consump- tion, disposable income and wealth approximated by equity and house price indices for a panel of 15 industrialized countries. Consumption, income and wealth are cointegrated in their common components. The impact of house prices exceeds the effect arising from equity wealth. The long run vector is broadly in line with the life cycle permanent income hypothesis, if house prices are allowed to enter the relationship. At the idiosyncratic level, a long run equilibrium is detected between consumption and income, i.e. the wealth variable can be excluded. The income elasticity in the idiosyncratic relationship is significantly less than unity. Hence, the presence of wealth effects in consumption equations arises from the international integration of asset markets and points to the relevance of risk sharing activities of agents. Without sufficient opportunities, an increase in national saving rates would be expected, leading to a lower path of private consumption expenditures.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The Saudi experiment with career guidance

Saudi Arabia has recently embarked on an ambitious experiment with career guidance. The country has identified that career guidance offers a range of potential cultural, educational and economic benefits. These include supporting the Saudisation of the workforce, the development of the vocational education system and the engagement of the Saudi ‘youth bulge’ in the labour market and wider society. However, the country has a weak tradition of career guidance and a need to develop new policies and systems rapidly. The Saudi Ministry of Labour has driven the development of the country’s new career guidance system and has sought to learn from global best practice. However, Saudi Arabia offers a very different context from those where career guidance has flourished. Particularly distinctive features of Saudi society include its limited civil society, the central role that religion plays, the place of women, the role of oil within the economy and the high level of migrant workers in the labour market. Taken together these issues offer challenges of culture, theory, policy and practice. Negotiating these challenges and building an organic body of theory and practice will be critical to the success or otherwise of the Saudi experiment with career guidance.N/