Modelling the potential for permafrost development on a radioactive waste geological disposal facility in Great Britain

The safety case for a geological disposal facility (GDF) for radioactive waste based in Great Britain must consider the potential impact on the repository environment of permafrost during the 1 million years following GDF closure. The depth of penetration of permafrost, defined as ground which remains at or below 0 °C for at least 2 consecutive years, has been modelled for a future climate that uses the climate of the last glacial–interglacial cycle as an analogue. Two future climates are considered; an average estimate case considered to be the best estimate of ground surface temperatures during the last glacial–interglacial cycle, and a cold estimate case considered to be an extreme cold, but plausible future climate. Maximum modelled permafrost thicknesses across Great Britain range from 20 to 180 m for the average estimate climate and 180–305 m for the cold estimate climate. The presence of ice cover is an important determinant on permafrost development. Thick permafrost evolves during long periods of cold-based ice cover and during periods of ice retreat that results in ground exposure to very cold air temperatures. Conversely, warm-based ice has an insulating effect, shielding the ground from cold air temperatures that retards permafrost development. For a GDF at a depth greater than that predicted to be directly affected by permafrost, phenomena associated with permafrost, e.g., enhanced groundwater salinity at depth, will need to be taken into account when considering the impact on the engineered and natural barriers associated with a GDF

An evaluation of combined geophysical and geotechnical methods to characterize beach thickness

Beaches provide sediment stores and have an important role in the development of the coastline in response to climate change. Quantification of beach thickness and volume is required to assess coastal sediment transport budgets. Therefore, portable, rapid, non-invasive techniques are required to evaluate thickness where environmental sensitivities exclude invasive methods. Site methods and data are described for a toolbox of electrical, electromagnetic, seismic and mechanical based techniques that were evaluated at a coastal site at Easington, Yorkshire. Geophysical and geotechnical properties are shown to be dependent upon moisture content, porosity and lithology of the beach and the morphology of the beach–platform interface. Thickness interpretation, using an inexpensive geographic information system to integrate data, allowed these controls and relationships to be understood. Guidelines for efficient site practices, based upon this case history including procedures and techniques, are presented using a systematic approach. Field results indicated that a mixed sand and gravel beach is highly variable and cannot be represented in models as a homogeneous layer of variable thickness overlying a bedrock half-space

Paleoclimates in Southwestern Tasmania during the Last 13,000 Years

Plant-sociological and climatic classification of the Australian Nothofagus cunninghamii rain forest provides the basis for a new, semiquantitative approach to interpretations of late-Quaternary paleoclimates from four pollen sequences in southwestern Tasmania. Varying proportions of rain-forest pollen types in the records were related to different modern rain-forest alliances and their specifc climatic regimes, such as Eastern Rain Forest, Leatherwood Rain Forest, and sclerophyllous, Subalpine Rain Forest. According to this interpretation, early Holocene climates were characterized by 1,600 mm annual precipitation and 10°C annual temperature, conditions substantially warmer and drier than previously thought. Maximum precipitation levels of 2,500 mm annually were not reached until 8,000 years B.P. A short-term cooling episode between 6,000 and 5,000 years B.P. led to the establishment of modern rain-forest distribution in western Tasmania, characterized either by a precipitation gradient steeper than before, or by greater climatic variability. To interpret paleoclimates from before 12,000 years B. P., when non-arboreal environments dominated in western Tasmanian bollen records, various modern treeless environments were studied in search for analogs. Contrary to earlier interpretations, late-glacial environments were not alpine tundra with a treeline at modern sea level, but steppe, with marshes or shallow lakes instead of the modern lakes. Climate was characterized by 50% less precipitation than today, resulting in substantial summer droughts. To explain such drastic precipitation decrease, the westerlies that dominate Tasmanian climate today must have been shifted polewards. This suggestion is supported by climate models that take Milankovitch-type insolation differences into account as well as sea-surface temperatures. Paleolimnological information based on diatom analyses support the general paleoclimatic reassessment

Detector Description and Performance for the First Coincidence Observations between LIGO and GEO

For 17 days in August and September 2002, the LIGO and GEO interferometer gravitational wave detectors were operated in coincidence to produce their first data for scientific analysis. Although the detectors were still far from their design sensitivity levels, the data can be used to place better upper limits on the flux of gravitational waves incident on the earth than previous direct measurements. This paper describes the instruments and the data in some detail, as a companion to analysis papers based on the first data.Comment: 41 pages, 9 figures 17 Sept 03: author list amended, minor editorial change

Distribution modelling and statistical phylogeography: an integrative framework for generating and testing alternative biogeographical hypotheses

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73644/1/j.1365-2699.2007.01814.x.pd

Search for gravitational waves associated with the gamma ray burst GRB030329 using the LIGO detectors

We have performed a search for bursts of gravitational waves associated with the very bright gamma ray burst GRB030329, using the two detectors at the LIGO Hanford Observatory. Our search covered the most sensitive frequency range of the LIGO detectors (approximately 80 - 2048 Hz), and we specifically targeted signals shorter than 150ms. Our search algorithm looks for excess correlated power between the two interferometers and thus makes minimal assumptions about the gravitational waveform. We observed no candidates with gravitational-wave signal strength larger than a predetermined threshold. We report frequency-dependent upper limits on the strength of the gravitational waves associated with GRB030329. Near the most sensitive frequency region, around 250Hz, our root-sum-square (RSS) gravitational-wave strain sensitivity for optimally polarized bursts was better than hRSS 6×10-21Hz-1/2. Our result is comparable to the best published results searching for association between gravitational waves and gamma ray bursts. © 2005 The American Physical Society

Limits on gravitational-wave emission from selected pulsars using LIGO data

We place direct upper limits on the amplitude of gravitational waves from 28 isolated radio pulsars by a coherent multidetector analysis of the data collected during the second science run of the LIGO interferometric detectors. These are the first direct upper limits for 26 of the 28 pulsars. We use coordinated radio observations for the first time to build radio-guided phase templates for the expected gravitational-wave signals. The unprecedented sensitivity of the detectors allows us to set strain upper limits as low as a few times 10-24. These strain limits translate into limits on the equatorial ellipticities of the pulsars, which are smaller than 10-5 for the four closest pulsars. © 2005 The American Physical Society

First cross-correlation analysis of interferometric and resonant-bar gravitational-wave data for stochastic backgrounds

Data from the LIGO Livingston interferometer and the ALLEGRO resonant-bar detector, taken during LIGO's fourth science run, were examined for cross correlations indicative of a stochastic gravitational-wave background in the frequency range 850-950 Hz, with most of the sensitivity arising between 905 and 925 Hz. ALLEGRO was operated in three different orientations during the experiment to modulate the relative sign of gravitational-wave and environmental correlations. No statistically significant correlations were seen in any of the orientations, and the results were used to set a Bayesian 90% confidence level upper limit of Ωgw(f)≤1.02, which corresponds to a gravitational-wave strain at 915 Hz of 1.5×10-23Hz-1/2. In the traditional units of h1002Ωgw(f), this is a limit of 0.53, 2 orders of magnitude better than the previous direct limit at these frequencies. The method was also validated with successful extraction of simulated signals injected in hardware and software. © 2007 The American Physical Society