Observational methods for COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness research:an empirical evaluation and target trial emulation

Background:There are scarce data on best practices to control for confounding in observational studies assessing vaccine effectiveness to prevent COVID-19. We compared the performance of three well-established methods [overlap weighting, inverse probability treatment weighting and propensity score (PS) matching] to minimize confounding when comparing vaccinated and unvaccinated people. Subsequently, we conducted a target trial emulation to study the ability of these methods to replicate COVID-19 vaccine trials.Methods:We included all individuals aged ≥75 from primary care records from the UK [Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) AURUM], who were not infected with or vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 as of 4 January 2021. Vaccination status was then defined based on first COVID-19 vaccine dose exposure between 4 January 2021 and 28 January 2021. Lasso regression was used to calculate PS. Location, age, prior observation time, regional vaccination rates, testing effort and COVID-19 incidence rates at index date were forced into the PS. Following PS weighting and matching, the three methods were compared for remaining covariate imbalance and residual confounding. Last, a target trial emulation comparing COVID-19 at 3 and 12 weeks after first vaccine dose vs unvaccinated was conducted.Results:Vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts comprised 583 813 and 332 315 individuals for weighting, respectively, and 459 000 individuals in the matched cohorts. Overlap weighting performed best in terms of minimizing confounding and systematic error. Overlap weighting successfully replicated estimates from clinical trials for vaccine effectiveness for ChAdOx1 (57%) and BNT162b2 (75%) at 12 weeks.Conclusion:Overlap weighting performed best in our setting. Our results based on overlap weighting replicate previous pivotal trials for the two first COVID-19 vaccines approved in Europe

Participatory Action Research on School Culture and Student Mental Health: A Study Protocol

Background: Young people spend a large proportion of their time in school, which presents both risk and protective factors for their mental health. A supportive school culture can promote and protect good mental health by creating experiences of safety and belonging amongst staff and students. In this qualitative study, we seek to explore whether a participatory action research (PAR) approach is an effective way to promote and improve student mental health. Methods: Participatory action research is an approach in which people collaboratively research their own experience: the researched communities become co-researchers of their own experiences in a specific context. We will work with four secondary schools in the UK to develop PAR projects. In each school, a group of 2–4 staff and 6–8 students will work together to develop a shared understanding of their school culture and to introduce activities or changes to make the culture more supportive of student mental health. We will evaluate the effectiveness of the PAR approach through i) a review of school documents pertaining to mental health (e.g., policies and Ofsted reports), ii) interviews with staff members ( n = 40), parents ( n = 8) and students ( n = 24–40) before and after the PAR intervention, iii) observations and reports of the PAR group meetings and iv) interviews with members of the PAR groups after the PAR intervention. Discussion: We anticipate that our research findings will advance knowledge on effective methods to develop a positive school culture that will contribute to the improvement of young people’s mental health and well-being. We will seek to identify the mechanisms through which school culture can have a positive impact on mental health and develop a logic model and a school culture toolkit that can be utilised as a resource to inform public health interventions to promote mental health in a range of educational settings.National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) School for Public Health Research (Grant Reference Number PD–SPH–2015)

Dissecting the illegal ivory trade: an analysis of ivory seizures data

Reliable evidence of trends in the illegal ivory trade is important for informing decision making for elephants but it is difficult to obtain due to the covert nature of the trade. The Elephant Trade Information System, a global database of reported seizures of illegal ivory, holds the only extensive information on illicit trade available. However inherent biases in seizure data make it difficult to infer trends; countries differ in their ability to make and report seizures and these differences cannot be directly measured. We developed a new modelling framework to provide quantitative evidence on trends in the illegal ivory trade from seizures data. The framework used Bayesian hierarchical latent variable models to reduce bias in seizures data by identifying proxy variables that describe the variability in seizure and reporting rates between countries and over time. Models produced bias-adjusted smoothed estimates of relative trends in illegal ivory activity for raw and worked ivory in three weight classes. Activity is represented by two indicators describing the number of illegal ivory transactions--Transactions Index--and the total weight of illegal ivory transactions--Weights Index--at global, regional or national levels. Globally, activity was found to be rapidly increasing and at its highest level for 16 years, more than doubling from 2007 to 2011 and tripling from 1998 to 2011. Over 70% of the Transactions Index is from shipments of worked ivory weighing less than 10 kg and the rapid increase since 2007 is mainly due to increased consumption in China. Over 70% of the Weights Index is from shipments of raw ivory weighing at least 100 kg mainly moving from Central and East Africa to Southeast and East Asia. The results tie together recent findings on trends in poaching rates, declining populations and consumption and provide detailed evidence to inform international decision making on elephants

Interaction between polymorphisms in aspirin metabolic pathways, regular aspirin use and colorectal cancer risk: A case-control study in unselected white European populations

Regular aspirin use is associated with reduced risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Variation in aspirin’s chemoprevention efficacy has been attributed to the presence of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We conducted a meta-analysis using two large population-based case-control datasets, the UK-Leeds Colorectal Cancer Study Group and the NIH-Colon Cancer Family Registry, having a combined total of 3325 cases and 2262 controls. The aim was to assess 42 candidate SNPs in 15 genes whose association with colorectal cancer risk was putatively modified by aspirin use, in the literature. Log odds ratios (ORs) and standard errors were estimated for each dataset separately using logistic regression adjusting for age, sex and study site, and dataset-specific results were combined using random effects meta-analysis. Meta-analysis showed association between SNPs rs6983267, rs11694911 and rs2302615 with CRC risk reduction (All P<0.05). Association for SNP rs6983267 in the CCAT2 gene only was noteworthy after multiple test correction (P = 0.001). Site-specific analysis showed association between SNPs rs1799853 and rs2302615 with reduced colon cancer risk only (P = 0.01 and P = 0.004, respectively), however neither reached significance threshold following multiple test correction. Meta-analysis of SNPs rs2070959 and rs1105879 in UGT1A6 gene showed interaction between aspirin use and CRC risk (Pinteraction = 0.01 and 0.02, respectively); stratification by aspirin use showed an association for decreased CRC risk for aspirin users having a wild-type genotype (rs2070959 OR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.68–0.86; rs1105879 OR = 0.77 95% CI = 0.69–0.86) compared to variant allele cariers. The direction of the interaction however is in contrast to that published in studies on colorectal adenomas. Both SNPs showed potential site-specific interaction with aspirin use and colon cancer risk only (Pinteraction = 0.006 and 0.008, respectively), with the direction of association similar to that observed for CRC. Additionally, they showed interaction between any non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (including aspirin) use and CRC risk (Pinteraction = 0.01 for both). All gene x environment (GxE) interactions however were not significant after multiple test correction. Candidate gene investigation indicated no evidence of GxE interaction between genetic variants in genes involved in aspirin pathways, regular aspirin use and colorectal cancer risk

Longitudinal whole-brain atrophy and ventricular enlargement in nondemented Parkinson's disease

We investigated whole-brain atrophy and ventricular enlargement over 18 months in nondemented Parkinson's disease (PD) and examined their associations with clinical measures and baseline CSF markers. PD subjects (n = 100) were classified at baseline into those with mild cognitive impairment (MCI; PD-MCI, n = 36) and no cognitive impairment (PD-NC, n = 64). Percentage of whole-brain volume change (PBVC) and ventricular expansion over 18 months were assessed with FSL-SIENA and ventricular enlargement (VIENA) respectively. PD-MCI showed increased global atrophy (-1.1% ± 0.8%) and ventricular enlargement (6.9 % ± 5.2%) compared with both PD-NC (PBVC: -0.4 ± 0.5, p < 0.01; VIENA: 2.1% ± 4.3%, p < 0.01) and healthy controls. In a subset of 35 PD subjects, CSF levels of tau, and Aβ42/Aβ40 ratio were correlated with PBVC and ventricular enlargement respectively. The sample size required to demonstrate a 20% reduction in PBVC and VIENA was approximately 1/15th of that required to detect equivalent changes in cognitive decline. These findings suggest that longitudinal MRI measurements have potential to serve as surrogate markers to complement clinical assessments for future disease-modifying trials in PD.This study was funded by a Parkinson's UK grant (J-0802) and supported by Parkinson's UK (CN), Lockhart Parkinson's Disease Research Fund (RAL, TKK, GWD), Michael J. Fox Foundation (AJY), the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR, RG64473) Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, and Biomedical Research Unit in Dementia, the Wellcome Trust (JBR, 103838); the Medical Research Council of Cognition, and Brain Sciences Unit, Cambridge (JBR, MC-A060-5PQ30); the NIHR Newcastle Biomedical Research Unit based at Newcastle-upon-Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and Newcastle University; the NIHR Dementia and Neurodegenerative Diseases Research Network (JTO), and Elijah Mak was in receipt of the Gates Cambridge studentship and Alzheimer's Research UK scholarship

Clusters of galaxies : observational properties of the diffuse radio emission

Clusters of galaxies, as the largest virialized systems in the Universe, are ideal laboratories to study the formation and evolution of cosmic structures...(abridged)... Most of the detailed knowledge of galaxy clusters has been obtained in recent years from the study of ICM through X-ray Astronomy. At the same time, radio observations have proved that the ICM is mixed with non-thermal components, i.e. highly relativistic particles and large-scale magnetic fields, detected through their synchrotron emission. The knowledge of the properties of these non-thermal ICM components has increased significantly, owing to sensitive radio images and to the development of theoretical models. Diffuse synchrotron radio emission in the central and peripheral cluster regions has been found in many clusters. Moreover large-scale magnetic fields appear to be present in all galaxy clusters, as derived from Rotation Measure (RM) studies. Non-thermal components are linked to the cluster X-ray properties, and to the cluster evolutionary stage, and are crucial for a comprehensive physical description of the intracluster medium. They play an important role in the cluster formation and evolution. We review here the observational properties of diffuse non-thermal sources detected in galaxy clusters: halos, relics and mini-halos. We discuss their classification and properties. We report published results up to date and obtain and discuss statistical properties. We present the properties of large-scale magnetic fields in clusters and in even larger structures: filaments connecting galaxy clusters. We summarize the current models of the origin of these cluster components, and outline the improvements that are expected in this area from future developments thanks to the new generation of radio telescopes.Comment: Accepted for the publication in The Astronomy and Astrophysics Review. 58 pages, 26 figure

Expansion of Canopy-Forming Willows Over the Twentieth Century on Herschel Island, Yukon Territory, Canada

Canopy-forming shrubs are reported to be increasing at sites around the circumpolar Arctic. Our results indicate expansion in canopy cover and height of willows on Herschel Island located at 70° north on the western Arctic coast of the Yukon Territory. We examined historic photographs, repeated vegetation surveys, and conducted monitoring of long-term plots and found evidence of increases of each of the dominant canopy-forming willow species (Salix richardsonii, Salix glauca and Salix pulchra), during the twentieth century. A simple model of patch initiation indicates that the majority of willow patches for each of these species became established between 1910 and 1960, with stem ages and maximum growth rates indicating that some patches could have established as late as the 1980s. Collectively, these results suggest that willow species are increasing in canopy cover and height on Herschel Island. We did not find evidence that expansion of willow patches is currently limited by herbivory, disease, or growing conditions. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0168-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

First integrative trend analysis for a great ape species in Borneo

For many threatened species the rate and drivers of population decline are difficult to assess accurately: species’ surveys are typically restricted to small geographic areas, are conducted over short time periods, and employ a wide range of survey protocols. We addressed methodological challenges for assessing change in the abundance of an endangered species. We applied novel methods for integrating field and interview survey data for the critically endangered Bornean orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus), allowing a deeper understanding of the species’ persistence through time. Our analysis revealed that Bornean orangutan populations have declined at a rate of 25% over the last 10 years. Survival rates of the species are lowest in areas with intermediate rainfall, where complex interrelations between soil fertility, agricultural productivity, and human settlement patterns influence persistence. These areas also have highest threats from human-wildlife conflict. Survival rates are further positively associated with forest extent, but are lower in areas where surrounding forest has been recently converted to industrial agriculture. Our study highlights the urgency of determining specific management interventions needed in different locations to counter the trend of decline and its associated drivers

Genetic analysis of Mendelian mutations in a large UK population-based Parkinson's disease study

Our objective was to define the prevalence and clinical features of genetic Parkinson's disease in a large UK population-based cohort, the largest multicentre prospective clinico-genetic incident study in the world. We collected demographic data, Movement Disorder Society Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale scores, and Montreal Cognitive Assessment scores. We analysed mutations in PRKN (parkin), PINK1, LRRK2 and SNCA in relation to age at symptom onset, family history and clinical features. Of the 2262 participants recruited to the Tracking Parkinson's study, 424 had young-onset Parkinson's disease (age at onset ≤ 50) and 1799 had late onset Parkinson's disease. A range of methods were used to genotype 2005 patients: 302 young-onset patients were fully genotyped with multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification and either Sanger and/or exome sequencing; and 1701 late-onset patients were genotyped with the LRRK2 'Kompetitive' allele-specific polymerase chain reaction assay and/or exome sequencing (two patients had missing age at onset). We identified 29 (1.4%) patients carrying pathogenic mutations. Eighteen patients carried the G2019S or R1441C mutations in LRRK2, and one patient carried a heterozygous duplication in SNCA. In PRKN, we identified patients carrying deletions of exons 1, 4 and 5, and P113Xfs, R275W, G430D and R33X. In PINK1, two patients carried deletions in exon 1 and 5, and the W90Xfs point mutation. Eighteen per cent of patients with age at onset ≤30 and 7.4% of patients from large dominant families carried pathogenic Mendelian gene mutations. Of all young-onset patients, 10 (3.3%) carried biallelic mutations in PRKN or PINK1. Across the whole cohort, 18 patients (0.9%) carried pathogenic LRRK2 mutations and one (0.05%) carried an SNCA duplication. There is a significant burden of LRRK2 G2019S in patients with both apparently sporadic and familial disease. In young-onset patients, dominant and recessive mutations were equally common. There were no differences in clinical features between LRRK2 carriers and non-carriers. However, we did find that PRKN and PINK1 mutation carriers have distinctive clinical features compared to young-onset non-carriers, with more postural symptoms at diagnosis and less cognitive impairment, after adjusting for age and disease duration. This supports the idea that there is a distinct clinical profile of PRKN and PINK1-related Parkinson's disease. We estimate that there are approaching 1000 patients with a known genetic aetiology in the UK Parkinson's disease population. A small but significant number of patients carry causal variants in LRRK2, SNCA, PRKN and PINK1 that could potentially be targeted by new therapies, such as LRRK2 inhibitors