'Dog Days' Full Employment without Depreciation: Can It Be Done?

Policy Forum: The Murray Financial System Enquir

Livelihoods after land reform in South Africa

Over the past few decades, Zimbabwe, Namibia and South Africa have pursued redistributive land reform as a means to address rural poverty. The Livelihoods after Land Reform (LaLR) study was carried out between 2007 and 2009, to understand the livelihood and poverty reduction outcomes of land reform in each of the three countries. The South African component focused on Limpopo province, and investigated land reform processes, trajectories of change and outcomes in thirteen detailed case studies. This paper summarizes some of the main findings from the South African study, and briefly compares them with findings from Namibia and Zimbabwe. The paper argues that a fundamental problem affecting land reform in both South Africa and Namibia is the uncritical application of the Large-Scale Commercial Farming (LSCF) model, which has led to unworkable project design and/or projects that are irrelevant to the circumstances of the rural poor. Nevertheless, some ‘beneficiaries’ have experienced modest improvements in their livelihoods, often through abandoning or amending official project plans.Web of Scienc

Application of Data Mining in Air Traffic Forecasting

The main goal of the study centers on developing a model for the purpose of air traffic forecasting by using off-the-shelf data mining and machine learning techniques. Although data driven modeling has been extensively applied in the aviation sector, little research has been done in the area of air traffic forecasting. This study is inspired by previous research focused on improving the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Terminal Area Forecasting (TAF) methodology, which historically assumed that the US air transportation system (ATS) network structure was static. Recent developments use data mining algorithms to predict the likelihood of previously un-connected airport-pairs being connected in the future, and the likelihood of connected airport-pairs becoming un-connected. Despite the innovation of this research, it does not focus on improving the FAA’s existing methodology for forecasting future air traffic levels on existing routes, which is based on relatively simple regression and growth models. We investigate different approaches for improving and developing new features within the existing data mining applications in air traffic forecasting. We focus particularly on predicting detailed traffic information for the US ATS. Initially, a 2-stage log-log model is applied to establish the significance of different inputs and to identify issues of endogeneity and multi-colinearity, while maintaining the simplicity of current models. Although the model shows high goodness of fit, it tested positive for both mentioned issues as well as presenting problems with causality. With the objective of solving these issues, a 3-stage model that is under development is introduced. This model employs logistic regression and discrete choice modelling. As part of future work, machine learning techniques such as clustering and neural networks will be applied to improve this model’s performance

Indigenous well-being in four countries: An application of the UNDP'S Human Development Index to Indigenous Peoples in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Canada, the United States, Australia, and New Zealand consistently place near the top of the United Nations Development Programme's <it>Human Development Index (HDI) </it>rankings, yet all have minority Indigenous populations with much poorer health and social conditions than non-Indigenous peoples. It is unclear just how the socioeconomic and health status of Indigenous peoples in these countries has changed in recent decades, and it remains generally unknown whether the overall conditions of Indigenous peoples are improving and whether the gaps between Indigenous peoples and other citizens have indeed narrowed. There is unsettling evidence that they may not have. It was the purpose of this study to determine how these gaps have narrowed or widened during the decade 1990 to 2000.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Census data and life expectancy estimates from government sources were used to adapt the Human Development Index (HDI) to examine how the broad social, economic, and health status of Indigenous populations in these countries have changed since 1990. Three indices – life expectancy, educational attainment, and income – were combined into a single HDI measure.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Between 1990 and 2000, the HDI scores of Indigenous peoples in North America and New Zealand improved at a faster rate than the general populations, closing the gap in human development. In Australia, the HDI scores of Indigenous peoples decreased while the general populations improved, widening the gap in human development. While these countries are considered to have high human development according to the UNDP, the Indigenous populations that reside within them have only medium levels of human development.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The inconsistent progress in the health and well-being of Indigenous populations over time, and relative to non-Indigenous populations, points to the need for further efforts to improve the social, economic, and physical health of Indigenous peoples.</p

Cost-effectiveness of Implementing Low-Tidal Volume Ventilation in Patients With Acute Lung Injury

Background: Despite widespread guidelines recommending the use of lung-protective ventilation (LPV) in patients with acute lung injury (ALI), many patients do not receive this lifesaving therapy. We sought to estimate the incremental clinical and economic outcomes associated with LPV and determined the maximum cost of a hypothetical intervention to improve adherence with LPV that remained cost-effective. Methods: Adopting a societal perspective, we developed a theoretical decision model to determine the cost-effectiveness of LPV compared to non-LPV care. Model inputs were derived from the literature and a large population-based cohort of patients with ALI. Cost-effectiveness was determined as the cost per life saved and the cost per quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. Results: Application of LPV resulted in an increase in QALYs gained by 15% (4.21 years for non-LPV vs 4.83 years for LPV), and an increase in lifetime costs of $7,233 per patient with ALI ($99,588 for non-LPV vs $106,821 for LPV). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for LPV were$22,566 per life saved at hospital discharge and $11,690 per QALY gained. The maximum, cost-effective, per patient investment in a hypothetical program to improve LPV adherence from 50 to 90$9,482. Results were robust to a wide range of economic and patient parameter assumptions. Conclusions: Even a costly intervention to improve adherence with low-tidal volume ventilation in patients with ALI reduces death and is cost-effective by current societal standards.NIH F32HL090220.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/84154/1/Cooke - CEA LPV.pd

Facilitating Adolescent Well-Being: A Review of the Challenges and Opportunities and the Beneficial Roles of Parents, Schools, Neighborhoods, and Policymakers

Adolescents face exceptional challenges and opportunities that may have a lifelong impact on their consumption and personal and societal well-being. Parents, community members (schools and neighborhoods), and policymakers play major roles in shaping adolescents and influencing their engagement in consumption behaviors that are either developmentally problematic (e.g., drug use and unhealthy eating) or developmentally constructive (e.g., academic pursuits and extracurricular activities). In this article, we discuss two main topics: (a) the challenges and opportunities that characterize adolescence, based primarily on research in epidemiology and neuroscience, and (b) the ways that parents, community members, and policymakers can facilitate positive adolescent development, based on research from many disciplines including marketing, psychology, sociology, communications, public health, and education. Our goal is to summarize the latest scientific findings that can be used by various stakeholders to help adolescents navigate this turbulent period and become well-adjusted, thriving adults

Acceptability of Condom Promotion and Distribution Among 10-19 Year-Old Adolescents in Mpwapwa and Mbeya Rural Districts, Tanzania.

\ud The HIV/AIDS pandemic remains a leading challenge for global health. Although condoms are acknowledged for their key role on preventing HIV transmission, low and inappropriate use of condoms persists in Tanzania and elsewhere in Africa. This study assesses factors affecting acceptability of condom promotion and distribution among adolescents in Mpwapwa and Mbeya rural districts of Tanzania. Data were collected in 2011 as part of a larger cross-sectional survey on condom use among 10-19 year-olds in Mpwapwa and Mbeya rural districts of Tanzania using a structured questionnaire. Associations between acceptability of condom promotion and distribution and each of the explanatory variables were tested using Chi Square. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to examine independent predictors of the acceptability of condom promotion and distribution using STATA (11) statistical software at 5% significance level. Mean age of the 1,327 adolescent participants (50.5% being males) was 13.5 years (SD = 1.4). Acceptance of condom promotion and distribution was found among 37% (35% in Mpwapwa and 39% in Mbeya rural) of the adolescents. Being sexually active and aged 15-19 was the strongest predictor of the acceptability of condom promotion and distribution (OR = 7.78, 95% CI 4.65-12.99). Others were; not agreeing that a condom is effective in preventing transmissions of STIs including HIV (OR = 0.34, 95% CI 0.20-0.56), being a resident of Mbeya rural district (OR = 1.67, 95% CI 1.28-2.19), feeling comfortable being seen by parents/guardians holding/buying condoms (OR = 2.20, 95% CI 1.40-3.46) and living with a guardian (OR = 1.48, 95% CI 1.08-2.04). Acceptability of condom promotion and distribution among adolescents in Mpwapwa and Mbeya rural is low. Effect of sexual activity on the acceptability of condom promotion and distribution is age-dependent and was the strongest. Feeling comfortable being seen by parents/guardians buying or holding condoms, perceived ability of condoms to offer protection against HIV/AIDS infections, district of residence and living arrangements also offered significant predictive effect. Knowledge of these factors is vital in designing successful and sustainable condom promotion and distribution programs in Tanzania.\u