The boomerang returns? Accounting for the impact of uncertainties on the dynamics of remanufacturing systems

Recent years have witnessed companies abandon traditional open-loop supply chain structures in favour of closed-loop variants, in a bid to mitigate environmental impacts and exploit economic opportunities. Central to the closed-loop paradigm is remanufacturing: the restoration of used products to useful life. While this operational model has huge potential to extend product life-cycles, the collection and recovery processes diminish the effectiveness of existing control mechanisms for open-loop systems. We systematically review the literature in the field of closed-loop supply chain dynamics, which explores the time-varying interactions of material and information flows in the different elements of remanufacturing supply chains. We supplement this with further reviews of what we call the three ‘pillars’ of such systems, i.e. forecasting, collection, and inventory and production control. This provides us with an interdisciplinary lens to investigate how a ‘boomerang’ effect (i.e. sale, consumption, and return processes) impacts on the behaviour of the closed-loop system and to understand how it can be controlled. To facilitate this, we contrast closed-loop supply chain dynamics research to the well-developed research in each pillar; explore how different disciplines have accommodated the supply, process, demand, and control uncertainties; and provide insights for future research on the dynamics of remanufacturing systems

R-process enrichment from a single event in an ancient dwarf galaxy

Elements heavier than zinc are synthesized through the (r)apid and (s)low neutron-capture processes. The main site of production of the r-process elements (such as europium) has been debated for nearly 60 years. Initial studies of chemical abundance trends in old Milky Way halo stars suggested continual r-process production, in sites like core-collapse supernovae. But evidence from the local Universe favors r-process production mainly during rare events, such as neutron star mergers. The appearance of a europium abundance plateau in some dwarf spheroidal galaxies has been suggested as evidence for rare r-process enrichment in the early Universe, but only under the assumption of no gas accretion into the dwarf galaxies. Cosmologically motivated gas accretion favors continual r-process enrichment in these systems. Furthermore, the universal r-process pattern has not been cleanly identified in dwarf spheroidals. The smaller, chemically simpler, and more ancient ultra-faint dwarf galaxies assembled shortly after the first stars formed, and are ideal systems with which to study nucleosynthesis events such as the r-process. Reticulum II is one such galaxy. The abundances of non-neutron-capture elements in this galaxy (and others like it) are similar to those of other old stars. Here, we report that seven of nine stars in Reticulum II observed with high-resolution spectroscopy show strong enhancements in heavy neutron-capture elements, with abundances that follow the universal r-process pattern above barium. The enhancement in this "r-process galaxy" is 2-3 orders of magnitude higher than that detected in any other ultra-faint dwarf galaxy. This implies that a single rare event produced the r-process material in Reticulum II. The r-process yield and event rate are incompatible with ordinary core-collapse supernovae, but consistent with other possible sites, such as neutron star mergers.Comment: Published in Nature, 21 Mar 2016: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature1742

The beta-Oslo method: experimentally constrained (n,γn,\gamma) reaction rates relevant to the rr-process

Unknown neutron-capture reaction rates remain a significant source of uncertainty in state-of-the-art $r$-process nucleosynthesis reaction network calculations. As the $r$-process involves highly neutron-rich nuclei for which direct ($n,\gamma$) cross-section measurements are virtually impossible, indirect methods are called for to constrain ($n,\gamma$) cross sections used as input for the $r$-process nuclear network. Here we discuss the newly developed beta-Oslo method, which is capable of providing experimental input for calculating ($n,\gamma$) rates of neutron-rich nuclei. The beta-Oslo method represents a first step towards constraining neutron-capture rates of importance to the $r$-process.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure, conference proceedings Nuclei in the Cosmos XV 2018, Italy

Modelling element abundances in semi-analytic models of galaxy formation

We update the treatment of chemical evolution in the Munich semi-analytic model, L-GALAXIES. Our new implementation includes delayed enrichment from stellar winds, supernovae type II (SNe-II) and supernovae type Ia (SNe-Ia), as well as metallicity-dependent yields and a reformulation of the associated supernova feedback. Two different sets of SN-II yields and three different SN-Ia delay-time distributions (DTDs) are considered, and eleven heavy elements (including O, Mg and Fe) are self-consistently tracked. We compare the results of this new implementation with data on a) local, star-forming galaxies, b) Milky Way disc G dwarfs, and c) local, elliptical galaxies. We find that the z=0 gas-phase mass-metallicity relation is very well reproduced for all forms of DTD considered, as is the [Fe/H] distribution in the Milky Way disc. The [O/Fe] distribution in the Milky Way disc is best reproduced when using a DTD with less than or equal to 50 per cent of SNe-Ia exploding within ~400 Myrs. Positive slopes in the mass-[alpha/Fe] relations of local ellipticals are also obtained when using a DTD with such a minor `prompt' component. Alternatively, metal-rich winds that drive light alpha elements directly out into the circumgalactic medium also produce positive slopes for all forms of DTD and SN-II yields considered. Overall, we find that the best model for matching the wide range of observational data considered here should include a power-law SN-Ia DTD, SN-II yields that take account of prior mass loss through stellar winds, and some direct ejection of light alpha elements out of galaxies

The Millennium Galaxy Catalogue: Bulge/Disc Decomposition of 10095 Nearby Galaxies

We have modelled the light distribution in 10095 galaxies from the Millennium Galaxy Catalogue (MGC), providing publically available structural catalogues for a large, representative sample of galaxies in the local Universe. Three different models were used: (1) a single Sersic function for the whole galaxy, (2) a bulge-disc decomposition model using a de Vaucouleurs (R^{1/4}) bulge plus exponential disc, (3) a bulge-disc decomposition model using a Sersic (R^{1/n}) bulge plus exponential disc. Repeat observations for 700 galaxies demonstrate that stable measurements can be obtained for object components with a half-light radius comparable to, or larger than, the seeing half-width at half maximum. We show that with careful quality control, robust measurements can be obtained for large samples such as the MGC. We use the catalogues to show that the galaxy colour bimodality is due to the two-component nature of galaxies (i.e. bulges and discs) and not to two distinct galaxy populations. We conclude that understanding galaxy evolution demands the routine bulge-disc decomposition of the giant galaxy population at all redshifts.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 23 pages, 20 figure

Short‐term psychosocial outcomes of adding a non‐contrast abdominal computed tomography (CT) scan to the thoracic CT within lung cancer screening

Objectives To evaluate psychological, social, and financial outcomes amongst individuals undergoing a non-contrast abdominal computed tomography (CT) scan to screen for kidney cancer and other abdominal malignancies alongside the thoracic CT within lung cancer screening. Subjects and Methods The Yorkshire Kidney Screening Trial (YKST) is a feasibility study of adding a non-contrast abdominal CT scan to the thoracic CT within lung cancer screening. A total of 500 participants within the YKST, comprising all who had an abnormal CT scan and a random sample of one-third of those with a normal scan between 14/03/2022 and 24/08/2022 were sent a questionnaire at 3 and 6 months. Outcomes included the Psychological Consequences Questionnaire (PCQ), the short-form of the Spielberger State–Trait Anxiety Inventory, and the EuroQoL five Dimensions five Levels scale (EQ-5D-5L). Data were analysed using regression adjusting for participant age, sex, socioeconomic status, education, baseline quality of life (EQ-5D-5L), and ethnicity. Results A total of 380 (76%) participants returned questionnaires at 3 months and 328 (66%) at 6 months. There was no difference in any outcomes between participants with a normal scan and those with abnormal scans requiring no further action. Individuals requiring initial further investigations or referral had higher scores on the negative PCQ than those with normal scans at 3 months (standardised mean difference 0.28 sd, 95% confidence interval 0.01–0.54; P = 0.044). The difference was greater in those with anxiety or depression at baseline. No differences were seen at 6 months. Conclusion Screening for kidney cancer and other abdominal malignancies using abdominal CT alongside the thoracic CT within lung cancer screening is unlikely to cause significant lasting psychosocial or financial harm to participants with incidental findings

Metal-Poor Stars and the Chemical Enrichment of the Universe

Metal-poor stars hold the key to our understanding of the origin of the elements and the chemical evolution of the Universe. This chapter describes the process of discovery of these rare stars, the manner in which their surface abundances (produced in supernovae and other evolved stars) are determined from the analysis of their spectra, and the interpretation of their abundance patterns to elucidate questions of origin and evolution. More generally, studies of these stars contribute to other fundamental areas that include nuclear astrophysics, conditions at the earliest times, the nature of the first stars, and the formation and evolution of galaxies -- including our own Milky Way. We illustrate this with results from studies of lithium formed during the Big Bang; of stars dated to within ~1 Gyr of that event; of the most metal-poor stars, with abundance signatures very different from all other stars; and of the build-up of the elements over the first several Gyr. The combination of abundance and kinematic signatures constrains how the Milky Way formed, while recent discoveries of extremely metal-poor stars in the Milky Way's dwarf galaxy satellites constrain the hierarchical build-up of its stellar halo from small dark-matter dominated systems. [abridged]Comment: Book chapter, emulated version, 34 pages; number of references are limited by publisher; to appear in Vol. 5 of textbook "Planets, Stars and Stellar Systems", by Springer, in 201

Associations between Extending Access to Primary Care and Emergency Department Visits: A Difference-In-Differences Analysis

Background: Health services across the world increasingly face pressures on the use of expensive hospital services. Better organisation and delivery of primary care has the potential to manage demand and reduce costs for hospital services, but routine primary care services are not open during evenings and weekends. Extended access (evening and weekend opening) is hypothesized to reduce pressure on hospital services from emergency department visits. However, the existing evidence-base is weak, largely focused on emergency out-of-hours services, and analysed using a before-and after-methodology without effective comparators. Methods and Findings: Throughout 2014, 56 primary care practices (346,024 patients) in Greater Manchester, England, offered 7-day extended access, compared with 469 primary care practices (2,596,330 patients) providing routine access. Extended access included evening and weekend opening and served both urgent and routine appointments. To assess the effects of extended primary care access on hospital services, we apply a difference-in-differences analysis using hospital administrative data from 2011 to 2014. Propensity score matching techniques were used to match practices without extended access to practices with extended access. Differences in the change in “minor” patient-initiated emergency department visits per 1,000 population were compared between practices with and without extended access. Populations registered to primary care practices with extended access demonstrated a 26.4% relative reduction (compared to practices without extended access) in patient-initiated emergency department visits for “minor” problems (95% CI -38.6% to -14.2%, absolute difference: -10,933 per year, 95% CI -15,995 to -5,866), and a 26.6% (95% CI -39.2% to -14.1%) relative reduction in costs of patient-initiated visits to emergency departments for minor problems (absolute difference: -£767,976, -£1,130,767 to -£405,184). There was an insignificant relative reduction of 3.1% in total emergency department visits (95% CI -6.4% to 0.2%). Our results were robust to several sensitivity checks. A lack of detailed cost reporting of the running costs of extended access and an inability to capture health outcomes and other health service impacts constrain the study from assessing the full cost-effectiveness of extended access to primary care. Conclusions: The study found that extending access was associated with a reduction in emergency department visits in the first 12 months. The results of the research have already informed the decision by National Health Service England to extend primary care access across Greater Manchester from 2016. However, further evidence is needed to understand whether extending primary care access is cost-effective and sustainable