Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed

A meta-analysis of the longitudinal relationship between adolescent depression and academic achievement.

Researchers in the fields of both education and mental health endeavor to develop and implement interventions which will bring children and adolescents greater academic success and optimally address mental health issues. Educators seek to target risk factors which might impede a student’s success in the classroom, while mental health providers seek to reduce issues within a child’s environment which might be risk factors for depression. Evidence for a cross-sectional relationship between adolescent depression and academic achievement is well-supported, with depression and achievement being negatively correlated in adolescents. The longitudinal relationship between these two variables is not fully understood, however. While primary studies provide evidence of a negative longitudinal correlation between depression and achievement among adolescents (Haines, Norris, & Kashy, 1996), to date there has yet to be a state-of-the-art meta-analysis that aggregates and examines the bidirectional relationship between depression and achievement over time. The purpose of this analysis is to fill this gap, with an exploration of the magnitude of the relationship between achievement and depression, as well as consideration of moderators which may impact the relationships between depression and achievement over time. Longitudinal studies (N = 26) that assess both depression scores and achievement at multiple time points were synthesized in order to estimate the overall relationship between the variables, and to elucidate the role of moderator variables which may impact any relationship over time, including biological sex, age, lapse between data waves, and method of measurement of both achievement and depression. The intention of the current study is to enhance the ability to predict scholastic or mental health issues, and to understand whether methodological considerations might better target when and for whom achievement and depressive issues are most correlated. Results indicate a small but statistically significant relationship between achievement and subsequent depression (r = -.0824, p \u3c .0001, 95% CI = -0.1171 to -.0478). The relationship between depression and subsequent achievement was not statistically significant. None of the above mentioned variables examined as potential moderators were statistically significant

A reduced-order strategy for 4D-Var data assimilation

This paper presents a reduced-order approach for four-dimensional variational data assimilation, based on a prior EO F analysis of a model trajectory. This method implies two main advantages: a natural model-based definition of a mul tivariate background error covariance matrix $\textbf{B}_r$, and an important decrease of the computational burden o f the method, due to the drastic reduction of the dimension of the control space. % An illustration of the feasibility and the effectiveness of this method is given in the academic framework of twin experiments for a model of the equatorial Pacific ocean. It is shown that the multivariate aspect of $\textbf{B}_r$ brings additional information which substantially improves the identification procedure. Moreover the computational cost can be decreased by one order of magnitude with regard to the full-space 4D-Var method

Exploring the effects of replicating shape, weight and recoil effects on VR shooting controllers

Commercial Virtual Reality (VR) controllers with realistic force feedback are becoming available, to increase the realism and immersion of first-person shooting (FPS) games in VR. These controllers attempt to mimic not only the shape and weight of real guns but also their recoil effects (linear force feedback parallel to the barrel, when the gun is shot). As these controllers become more popular and affordable, this paper investigates the actual effects that these properties (shape, weight, and especially directional force feedback) have on performance for general VR users (e.g. users with no marksmanship experience), drawing conclusions for both consumers and device manufacturers. We created a prototype replicating the properties exploited by commercial VR controllers (i.e. shape, weight and adjustable force feedback) and used it to assess the effect of these parameters in user performance, across a series of user studies. We first analysed the benefits on user performance of adding weight and shape vs a conventional controller (e.g. Vive controller). We then explore the implications of adding linear force feedback (LFF), as well as replicating the shape and weight. Our studies show negligible effects on the immediate shooting performance with some improvements in subjective appreciation, which are already present with low levels of LFF. While higher levels of LFF do not increase subjective appreciations any further, they lead users to reach their maximum distance skillset more quickly. This indicates that while adding low levels of LFF can be enough to influence user’s immersion/engagement for gaming contexts, controllers with higher levels of LFF might be better suited for training environments and/or when dealing with particularly demanding aiming tasks

Time perception and the experience of agency in meditation and hypnosis

Mindfulness meditation and hypnosis are related in opposing ways to awareness of intentions. The cold control theory of hypnosis proposes that hypnotic responding involves the experience of involuntariness while performing an actually intentional action. Hypnosis therefore relies upon inaccurate metacognition about intentional actions and experiences. Mindfulness meditation centrally involves awareness of intentions and is associated with improved metacognitive access to intentions. Therefore, mindfulness meditators and highly hypnotizable people may lie at opposite ends of a spectrum with regard to metacognitive access to intention‐related information. Here we review the theoretical background and evidence for differences in the metacognition of intentions in these groups, as revealed by chronometric measures of the awareness of voluntary action: the timing of an intention to move (Libet's “W” judgments) and the compressed perception of time between an intentional action and its outcome (“intentional binding”). We review these measures and critically evaluate their proposed connection to the experience of volition and sense of agency

Developmental profile of temporal binding: from childhood to adulthood

Temporal binding refers to a phenomenon whereby the time interval between a cause and its effect is perceived as shorter than the same interval separating two unrelated events. We examined the developmental profile of this phenomenon by comparing the performance of groups of children (aged 6–7, 7–8, and 9–10 years) and adults on a novel interval estimation task. In Experiment 1, participants made judgements about the time interval between (a) their button press and a rocket launch, and (b) a non-causal predictive signal and rocket launch. In Experiment 2, an additional causal condition was included in which participants made judgements about the interval between an experimenter’s button press and the launch of a rocket. Temporal binding was demonstrated consistently and did not change in magnitude with age: estimates of delay were shorter in causal contexts for both adults and children. In addition, the magnitude of the binding effect was greater when participants themselves were the cause of an outcome compared with when they were mere spectators. This suggests that although causality underlies the binding effect, intentional action may modulate its magnitude. Again, this was true of both adults and children. Taken together, these results are the first to suggest that the binding effect is present and developmentally constant from childhood into adulthood

Psychometric Properties of the German Version of the Child Post-Traumatic Cognitions Inventory (CPTCI-GER)

Dysfunctional trauma-related cognitions are associated with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The psychometric properties of the German version of the Child Post-Traumatic Cognitions Inventory (CPTCI-GER) were assessed in a sample of 223 children and adolescents (7–16 years) with a history of different traumatic events. Confirmatory factor analyses supported the original two-factor structure—permanent and disturbing change (CPTCI-PC) and fragile person in a scary world (CPTCI-SW). The total scale and both subscales showed good internal consistency. Participants with PTSD had significantly more dysfunctional trauma-related cognitions than those without PTSD. Dysfunctional posttraumatic cognitions correlated significantly with posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS; r = .62), depression (r = .71), and anxiety (r = .67). The CPTCI-GER has good psychometric properties and may facilitate evaluation of treatments and further research on the function of trauma-related cognitions in children and adolescents. (Partial) correlations provide empirical support for the combined DSM-5 symptom cluster negative alterations in cognitions and mood

Questionnaire of chronic illness care in primary care-psychometric properties and test-retest reliability

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Chronic Care Model (CCM) is an evidence-based approach to improving the structure of care for chronically ill patients with multimorbidity. The Assessment of Chronic Illness Care (ACIC), an instrument commonly used in international research, includes all aspects of the CCM, but cannot be easily extended to the German context. A new instrument called the "Questionnaire of Chronic Illness Care in Primary Care" (QCPC) was developed for use in Germany for this reason. Here, we present the results of the psychometric properties and test-retest reliability of QCPC.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 109 family doctors from different German states participated in the validation study. Participating physicians completed the QCPC, which includes items concerning the CCM and practice structure, at baseline (T0) and 3 weeks later (T1). Internal consistency reliability and test-retest reliability were evaluated using Cronbach's alpha and Pearson's r, respectively.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The QCPC contains five elements of the CCM (decision support, delivery system design, self-management support, clinical information systems, and community linkages). All subscales demonstrated moderate internal consistency and moderate test-retest reliability over a three-week interval.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The QCPC is an appropriate instrument to assess the structure of chronic illness care. Unlike the ACIC, the QCPC can be used by health care providers without CCM training. The QCPC can detect the actual state of care as well as areas for improvement of care according to the CCM.</p

The Modular and Integrated Data Assimilation System at Environment and Climate Change Canada (MIDAS v3.9.1)

The Modular and Integrated Data Assimilation System (MIDAS) software (version 3.9.1) is described in terms of its range of functionality, modular software design, parallelization strategy, and current uses within real-time operational and experimental systems. MIDAS is developed at Environment and Climate Change Canada for both operational and research applications, including all atmospheric data assimilation (DA) elements of the Canadian operational numerical weather prediction systems. The described version of MIDAS is part of the Canadian prediction systems that became operational in June 2024. The software is designed to be sufficiently general to enable other DA applications, including atmospheric constituents (e.g. ozone), sea ice, and sea surface temperature. In addition to describing the current MIDAS applications, a sample of the results from these systems is presented to demonstrate their performance in comparison with either systems from before the switch to using MIDAS software or similar systems at other numerical weather prediction (NWP) centres. The modular software design also allows the code that implements high-level components (e.g. observation operators, error covariance matrices, state vectors) to easily be used in many different ways depending on the application, such as for both variational and ensemble DA algorithms, for estimating the observation impact on short-term forecasts, and for performing various observation pre-processing procedures. The use of a single common DA software package for multiple components of the Earth system provides both practical and scientific benefits, including the facilitation of future research on DA approaches that explicitly include the coupled connections between multiple Earth system components. To this end, work is currently underway to allow the use of MIDAS DA algorithms for initializing both deterministic and ensemble three-dimensional ocean model forecasts.</p