A weak scientific basis for gaming disorder: let us err on the side of caution

We greatly appreciate the care and thought that is evident in the 10 commentaries that discuss our debate paper, the majority of which argued in favor of a formalized ICD-11 gaming disorder. We agree that there are some people whose play of video games is related to life problems. We believe that understanding this population and the nature and severity of the problems they experience should be a focus area for future research. However, moving from research construct to formal disorder requires a much stronger evidence base than we currently have. The burden of evidence and the clinical utility should be extremely high, because there is a genuine risk of abuse of diagnoses. We provide suggestions about the level of evidence that might be required: transparent and preregistered studies, a better demarcation of the subject area that includes a rationale for focusing on gaming particularly versus a more general behavioral addictions concept, the exploration of non-addiction approaches, and the unbiased exploration of clinical approaches that treat potentially underlying issues, such as depressive mood or social anxiety first. We acknowledge there could be benefits to formalizing gaming disorder, many of which were highlighted by colleagues in their commentaries, but we think they do not yet outweigh the wider societal and public health risks involved. Given the gravity of diagnostic classification and its wider societal impact, we urge our colleagues at the WHO to err on the side of caution for now and postpone the formalization

Recursive black-box identification of nonlinear state-space ODE models

Nonlinear system identification methods is a topic that has been gaining interest over the last years. One reason is the many application areas in controller design and system development. However, the problem of modeling nonlinear systems is complex and finding a general method that can be used for many different applications is difficult. This thesis treats recursive identification methods for identification of systems that can be described by nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The general model structure enables application to a wide range of processes. It is also suitable for usage in combination with many nonlinear controller design methods. The first two papers of the thesis illustrates how a recursive prediction error method (RPEM) can be used for identification of an anaerobic digestion process and a solar heating system. In the former case the model complexity is significantly reduced compared to a semi-physical model of the system, without loosing much in model performance. In the latter case it is shown that it is possible to reach convergence even for a small data set, and that the resulting model is of comparable quality as a previously published grey-box model of the same system. The third paper consists of a convergence analysis of the studied RPEM. The analysis exploits averaging analysis using an associated ordinary differential equation, and formulates conditions for convergence to a minimum of the criterion function. Convergence to a true parameter set is also illustrated by an example. The fourth, and last, paper of this thesis addresses the problem of finding suitable initial parameters e.g. for the RPEM. With a potentially non-convex criterion function the choice of initial parameters becomes decisive for whether the algorithm converges to the global optimum, or a local one. The suggested initialization algorithm is a Kalman filter based method. Experiments using a simulated example show that the Kalman based method can, under beneficial circumstances, be used for initialization of the RPEM. The result is further supported by successful identification experiments of a laboratory scale cascaded tanks process, where the Kalman based method was used for initialization

Recursive black-box identification of nonlinear state-space ODE models

Nonlinear system identification methods is a topic that has been gaining interest over the last years. One reason is the many application areas in controller design and system development. However, the problem of modeling nonlinear systems is complex and finding a general method that can be used for many different applications is difficult. This thesis treats recursive identification methods for identification of systems that can be described by nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The general model structure enables application to a wide range of processes. It is also suitable for usage in combination with many nonlinear controller design methods. The first two papers of the thesis illustrates how a recursive prediction error method (RPEM) can be used for identification of an anaerobic digestion process and a solar heating system. In the former case the model complexity is significantly reduced compared to a semi-physical model of the system, without loosing much in model performance. In the latter case it is shown that it is possible to reach convergence even for a small data set, and that the resulting model is of comparable quality as a previously published grey-box model of the same system. The third paper consists of a convergence analysis of the studied RPEM. The analysis exploits averaging analysis using an associated ordinary differential equation, and formulates conditions for convergence to a minimum of the criterion function. Convergence to a true parameter set is also illustrated by an example. The fourth, and last, paper of this thesis addresses the problem of finding suitable initial parameters e.g. for the RPEM. With a potentially non-convex criterion function the choice of initial parameters becomes decisive for whether the algorithm converges to the global optimum, or a local one. The suggested initialization algorithm is a Kalman filter based method. Experiments using a simulated example show that the Kalman based method can, under beneficial circumstances, be used for initialization of the RPEM. The result is further supported by successful identification experiments of a laboratory scale cascaded tanks process, where the Kalman based method was used for initialization

Nonlinear Identification and Control with Solar Energy Applications

Nonlinear systems occur in industrial processes, economical systems, biotechnology and in many other areas. The thesis treats methods for system identification and control of such nonlinear systems, and applies the proposed methods to a solar heating/cooling plant. Two applications, an anaerobic digestion process and a domestic solar heating system are first used to illustrate properties of an existing nonlinear recursive prediction error identification algorithm. In both cases, the accuracy of the obtained nonlinear black-box models are comparable to the results of application specific grey-box models. Next a convergence analysis is performed, where conditions for convergence are formulated. The results, together with the examples, indicate the need of a method for providing initial parameters for the nonlinear prediction error algorithm. Such a method is then suggested and shown to increase the usefulness of the prediction error algorithm, significantly decreasing the risk for convergence to suboptimal minimum points. Next, the thesis treats model based control of systems with input signal dependent time delays. The approach taken is to develop a controller for systems with constant time delays, and embed it by input signal dependent resampling; the resampling acting as an interface between the system and the controller. Finally a solar collector field for combined cooling and heating of office buildings is used to illustrate the system identification and control strategies discussed earlier in the thesis, the control objective being to control the solar collector output temperature. The system has nonlinear dynamic behavior and large flow dependent time delays. The simulated evaluation using measured disturbances confirm that the controller works as intended. A significant reduction of the impact of variations in solar radiation on the collector outlet temperature is achieved, though the limited control range of the system itself prevents full exploitation of the proposed feedforward control. The methods and results contribute to a better utilization of solar power

Recursive black-box identification of nonlinear state-space ODE models

Nonlinear system identification methods is a topic that has been gaining interest over the last years. One reason is the many application areas in controller design and system development. However, the problem of modeling nonlinear systems is complex and finding a general method that can be used for many different applications is difficult. This thesis treats recursive identification methods for identification of systems that can be described by nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The general model structure enables application to a wide range of processes. It is also suitable for usage in combination with many nonlinear controller design methods. The first two papers of the thesis illustrates how a recursive prediction error method (RPEM) can be used for identification of an anaerobic digestion process and a solar heating system. In the former case the model complexity is significantly reduced compared to a semi-physical model of the system, without loosing much in model performance. In the latter case it is shown that it is possible to reach convergence even for a small data set, and that the resulting model is of comparable quality as a previously published grey-box model of the same system. The third paper consists of a convergence analysis of the studied RPEM. The analysis exploits averaging analysis using an associated ordinary differential equation, and formulates conditions for convergence to a minimum of the criterion function. Convergence to a true parameter set is also illustrated by an example. The fourth, and last, paper of this thesis addresses the problem of finding suitable initial parameters e.g. for the RPEM. With a potentially non-convex criterion function the choice of initial parameters becomes decisive for whether the algorithm converges to the global optimum, or a local one. The suggested initialization algorithm is a Kalman filter based method. Experiments using a simulated example show that the Kalman based method can, under beneficial circumstances, be used for initialization of the RPEM. The result is further supported by successful identification experiments of a laboratory scale cascaded tanks process, where the Kalman based method was used for initialization

MATLAB software for recursive identification and scaling using a structured nonlinear black-box model : Revision 4

This reports is intended as a users manual for a package of MATLAB scripts and functions, developed for recursive prediction error identification of nonlinear state space systems and nonlinear static systems. The core of the package is an implementation of an output error identification and scaling algorithm. The algorithm is based on a continuous time, structured black box state space model of a nonlinear system. An RPEM algorithm for recursive identification of nonlinear static systems, that re-uses the parameterization of the nonlinear ODE model, is also included in the software package. In this version of the software an initialization algorithm based on Kalman filter theory has been added to the package. The purpose of the initialization algorithm is to find initial parameters for the prediction error algorithm, and thus reduce the risk of convergence to local minima for the nonlinear identification problem. The software can only be run off-line, i.e. no true real time operation is possible. The algorithms are however implemented so that true on-line operation can be obtained by extraction of the main algorithmic loop. The user must then provide the real time environment. The software package contains scripts and functions that allow the user to either input live measurements or to generate test data by simulation. The scripts and functions for the setup and execution of the identification algorithms are somewhat more general than what is described in the references. There is e.g. support for automatic re-initiation of the algorithms using the parameters obtained at the end of a previous identification run. This allows for multiple runs through a set of data, something that is useful for data sets that are too short to allow convergence in a single run. The re-initiation step also allows the user to modify the degrees of the polynomial model structure and to specify terms that are to be excluded from the model. This makes it possible to iteratively re-fine the estimated model using multiple runs. The functionality for display of results include scripts for plotting of data, parameters, prediction errors, eigenvalues and the condition number of the Hessian. The estimated model obtained at the end of a run can be simulated and the model output plotted, alone or together with the data used for identification. Model validation is supported by two methods apart from the display functionality. First, a calculation of the RPEM loss function can be performed, using parameters obtained at the end of an identification run. Secondly, the accuracy as a function of the output signal amplitude can be assessed

MATLAB software for recursive identification and scaling using a structured nonlinear black-box model : Revision 3

This reports is intended as a users manual for a package of MATLAB scripts and functions, developed for recursive prediction error identification of nonlinear state space systems and nonlinear static systems. The core of the package is an implementation of an output error identification and scaling algorithm. The algorithm is based on a continuous time, structured black box state space model of a nonlinear system. An RPEM algorithm for recursive identification of nonlinear static systems, that re-uses the parameterization of the nonlinear ODE model, is also included in the software package. In this version of the software an initialization algorithm based on Kalman filter theory has been added to the package. The purpose of the initialization algorithm is to find initial parameters for the prediction error algorithm, and thus reduce the risk of convergence to local minima for the nonlinear identification problem. The software can only be run off-line, i.e. no true real time operation is possible. The algorithms are however implemented so that true on-line operation can be obtained by extraction of the main algorithmic loop. The user must then provide the real time environment. The software package contains scripts and functions that allow the user to either input live measurements or to generate test data by simulation. The scripts and functions for the setup and execution of the identification algorithms are somewhat more general than what is described in the references. There is e.g. support for automatic re-initiation of the algorithms using the parameters obtained at the end of a previous identification run. This allows for multiple runs through a set of data, something that is useful for data sets that are too short to allow convergence in a single run. The re-initiation step also allows the user to modify the degrees of the polynomial model structure and to specify terms that are to be excluded from the model. This makes it possible to iteratively re-fine the estimated model using multiple runs. The functionality for display of results include scripts for plotting of data, parameters, prediction errors, eigenvalues and the condition number of the Hessian. The estimated model obtained at the end of a run can be simulated and the model output plotted, alone or together with the data used for identification. Model validation is supported by two methods apart from the display functionality. First, a calculation of the RPEM loss function can be performed, using parameters obtained at the end of an identification run. Secondly, the accuracy as a function of the output signal amplitude can be assessed