The roles of transportation and transportation hubs in the propagation of influenza and coronaviruses: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Respiratory viruses spread in humans across wide geographical areas in short periods of time, resulting in high levels of morbidity and mortality. We undertook a systematic review to assess the evidence that air, ground and sea mass transportation systems or hubs are associated with propagating influenza and coronaviruses. METHODS: Healthcare databases and sources of grey literature were searched using pre-defined criteria between April and June 2014. Two reviewers screened all identified records against the protocol, undertook risk of bias assessments and extracted data using a piloted form. Results were analysed using a narrative synthesis. RESULTS: Forty-one studies met the eligibility criteria. Risk of bias was high in the observational studies, moderate to high in the reviews and moderate to low in the modelling studies. In-flight influenza transmission was identified substantively on five flights with up to four confirmed and six suspected secondary cases per affected flight. Five studies highlighted the role of air travel in accelerating influenza spread to new areas. Influenza outbreaks aboard cruise ships affect 2-7% of passengers. Influenza transmission events have been observed aboard ground transport vehicles. High heterogeneity between studies and the inability to exclude other sources of infection means that the risk of influenza transmission from an index case to other passengers cannot be accurately quantified. A paucity of evidence was identified describing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus transmission events associated with transportation systems or hubs. CONCLUSION: Air transportation appears important in accelerating and amplifying influenza propagation. Transmission occurs aboard aeroplanes, at the destination and possibly at airports. Control measures to prevent influenza transmission on cruise ships are needed to reduce morbidity and mortality. There is no recent evidence of sea transport accelerating influenza or coronavirus spread to new areas. Further investigation is required regarding the roles of ground transportation systems and transport hubs in pandemic situations

What Fraction of Gravitational Lens Galaxies Lie in Groups?

We predict how the observed variations in galaxy populations with environment affect the number and properties of gravitational lenses in different environments. Two trends dominate: lensing strongly favors early-type galaxies, which tend to lie in dense environments, but dense environments tend to have a larger ratio of dwarf to giant galaxies than the field. The two effects nearly cancel, and the distribution of environments for lens and non-lens galaxies are not substantially different (lens galaxies are slightly less likely than non-lens galaxies to lie in groups and clusters). We predict that about 20% of lens galaxies are in bound groups (defined as systems with a line-of-sight velocity dispersion sigma in the range 200 < sigma < 500 km/s), and another roughly 3% are in rich clusters (sigma > 500 km/s). Therefore at least roughly 25% of lenses are likely to have environments that significantly perturb the lensing potential. If such perturbations do not significantly increase the image separation, we predict that lenses in groups have a mean image separation that is about 0.2'' smaller than that for lenses in the field and estimate that 20-40 lenses in groups are required to test this prediction with significance. The tail of the distribution of image separations is already illuminating. Although lensing by galactic potential wells should rarely produce lenses with image separations theta >~ 6'', two such lenses are seen among 49 known lenses, suggesting that environmental perturbations of the lensing potential can be significant. Further comparison of theory and data will offer a direct probe of the dark halos of galaxies and groups and reveal the extent to which they affect lensing estimates of cosmological parameters.Comment: 32 pages, 6 embedded figures; accepted for publication in Ap

Improved Cosmological Constraints from Gravitational Lens Statistics

We combine the Cosmic Lens All-Sky Survey (CLASS) with new Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data on the local velocity dispersion distribution function of E/S0 galaxies, $\phi(\sigma)$, to derive lens statistics constraints on $\Omega_\Lambda$ and $\Omega_m$. Previous studies of this kind relied on a combination of the E/S0 galaxy luminosity function and the Faber-Jackson relation to characterize the lens galaxy population. However, ignoring dispersion in the Faber-Jackson relation leads to a biased estimate of $\phi(\sigma)$ and therefore biased and overconfident constraints on the cosmological parameters. The measured velocity dispersion function from a large sample of E/S0 galaxies provides a more reliable method for probing cosmology with strong lens statistics. Our new constraints are in good agreement with recent results from the redshift-magnitude relation of Type Ia supernovae. Adopting the traditional assumption that the E/S0 velocity function is constant in comoving units, we find a maximum likelihood estimate of $\Omega_\Lambda = 0.74$--0.78 for a spatially flat unvierse (where the range reflects uncertainty in the number of E/S0 lenses in the CLASS sample), and a 95% confidence upper bound of $\Omega_\Lambda<0.86$. If $\phi(\sigma)$ instead evolves in accord with extended Press-Schechter theory, then the maximum likelihood estimate for $\Omega_\Lambda$ becomes 0.72--0.78, with the 95% confidence upper bound $\Omega_\Lambda<0.89$. Even without assuming flatness, lensing provides independent confirmation of the evidence from Type Ia supernovae for a nonzero dark energy component in the universe.Comment: 35 pages, 15 figures, to be published in Ap

The Redshift of the Lensed Object in the Einstein Ring B0218+357

We present a secure redshift of z=0.944\pm0.002 for the lensed object in the Einstein ring gravitational lens B0218+357 based on five broad emission lines, in good agreement with our preliminary value announced several years ago based solely on the detection of a single emission line.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Ap

Gothic visions of classical architecture in Hablot Knight Browne’s “dark” illustrations for the novels of Charles Dickens

In the early gothic literature of the eighteenth century danger lurked in the darkness beneath the pointed arches of gothic buildings. During the nineteenth century there was a progressive, although never complete, dislocation of gothic literary readings from gothic architecture. This article explores a phase in that development through discussion of a series of ‘dark’ illustrations produced by Hablot Knight Browne to illustrate novels by Charles Dickens. These show the way in which the rounded arches of neo-classical architecture were depicted in the mid-nineteenth century as locales of oppression and obscurity. Such depictions acted, in an age of political and moral reform, to critique the values of the system of power and authority that such architecture represented

The roles of transportation and transportation hubs in the propagation of influenza and coronaviruses: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Respiratory viruses spread in humans across wide geographical areas in short periods of time, resulting in high levels of morbidity and mortality. We undertook a systematic review to assess the evidence that air, ground and sea mass transportation systems or hubs are associated with propagating influenza and coronaviruses. METHODS: Healthcare databases and sources of grey literature were searched using pre-defined criteria between April and June 2014. Two reviewers screened all identified records against the protocol, undertook risk of bias assessments and extracted data using a piloted form. Results were analysed using a narrative synthesis. RESULTS: Forty-one studies met the eligibility criteria. Risk of bias was high in the observational studies, moderate to high in the reviews and moderate to low in the modelling studies. In-flight influenza transmission was identified substantively on five flights with up to four confirmed and six suspected secondary cases per affected flight. Five studies highlighted the role of air travel in accelerating influenza spread to new areas. Influenza outbreaks aboard cruise ships affect 2-7% of passengers. Influenza transmission events have been observed aboard ground transport vehicles. High heterogeneity between studies and the inability to exclude other sources of infection means that the risk of influenza transmission from an index case to other passengers cannot be accurately quantified. A paucity of evidence was identified describing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus transmission events associated with transportation systems or hubs. CONCLUSION: Air transportation appears important in accelerating and amplifying influenza propagation. Transmission occurs aboard aeroplanes, at the destination and possibly at airports. Control measures to prevent influenza transmission on cruise ships are needed to reduce morbidity and mortality. There is no recent evidence of sea transport accelerating influenza or coronavirus spread to new areas. Further investigation is required regarding the roles of ground transportation systems and transport hubs in pandemic situations

Galaxy density profiles and shapes -- II. selection biases in strong lensing surveys

[Abridged] Many current and future astronomical surveys will rely on samples of strong gravitational lens systems to draw conclusions about galaxy mass distributions. We use a new strong lensing pipeline (presented in Paper I of this series) to explore selection biases that may cause the population of strong lensing systems to differ from the general galaxy population. Our focus is on point-source lensing by early-type galaxies with two mass components (stellar and dark matter) that have a variety of density profiles and shapes motivated by observational and theoretical studies of galaxy properties. We seek not only to quantify but also to understand the physics behind selection biases related to: galaxy mass, orientation and shape; dark matter profile parameters such as inner slope and concentration; and adiabatic contraction. We study how all of these properties affect the lensing Einstein radius, total cross-section, quad/double ratio, and image separation distribution. We find significant (factors of several) selection biases with mass; orientation, for a given galaxy shape at fixed mass; cusped dark matter profile inner slope and concentration; concentration of the stellar and dark matter deprojected Sersic models. Interestingly, the intrinsic shape of a galaxy does not strongly influence its lensing cross-section when we average over viewing angles. Our results are an important first step towards understanding how strong lens systems relate to the general galaxy population.Comment: 26 pages, 15 figures; paper I at arXiv:0808.2493; accepted for publication in MNRAS (minor revisions); PDF file with full resolution figures at http://www.sns.ias.edu/~rmandelb/paper2.pd

The impact of lens galaxy environments on the image separation distribution

We study the impact of lens galaxy environments on the image separation distribution of lensed quasars. We account for both environmental convergence and shear, using a joint distribution derived from galaxy formation models calibrated by galaxy-galaxy lensing data and number counts of massive elliptical galaxies. We find that the external field enhances lensing probabilities, particularly at large image separations; the increase is ~30% at \theta=3'' and ~200% at \theta=5'', when we adopt a power-law source luminosity function \Phi(L) \propto L^-2.1. The enhancement is mainly driven by convergence, which boosts both the image separation and magnification bias (for a fixed lens galaxy mass). These effects have been neglected in previous studies of lens statistics. Turning the problem around, we derive the posterior convergence and shear distributions and point out that they are strong functions of image separation; lens systems with larger image separations are more likely to lie in dense environments.Comment: 8 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

A clinical prediction model for long-term functional outcome after traumatic spinal cord injury based on acute clinical and imaging factors.

To improve clinicians\u27 ability to predict outcome after spinal cord injury (SCI) and to help classify patients within clinical trials, we have created a novel prediction model relating acute clinical and imaging information to functional outcome at 1 year. Data were obtained from two large prospective SCI datasets. Functional independence measure (FIM) motor score at 1 year follow-up was the primary outcome, and functional independence (score ≥ 6 for each FIM motor item) was the secondary outcome. A linear regression model was created with the primary outcome modeled relative to clinical and imaging predictors obtained within 3 days of injury. A logistic model was then created using the dichotomized secondary outcome and the same predictor variables. Model validation was performed using a bootstrap resampling procedure. Of 729 patients, 376 met the inclusion criteria. The mean FIM motor score at 1 year was 62.9 (±28.6). Better functional status was predicted by less severe initial American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) Impairment Scale grade, and by an ASIA motor score \u3e50 at admission. In contrast, older age and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) signal characteristics consistent with spinal cord edema or hemorrhage predicted worse functional outcome. The linear model predicting FIM motor score demonstrated an R-square of 0.52 in the original dataset, and 0.52 (95% CI 0.52,0.53) across the 200 bootstraps. Functional independence was achieved by 148 patients (39.4%). For the logistic model, the area under the curve was 0.93 in the original dataset, and 0.92 (95% CI 0.92,0.93) across the bootstraps, indicating excellent predictive discrimination. These models will have important clinical impact to guide decision making and to counsel patients and families

Bright AGN Source List from the First Three Months of the Fermi Large Area Telescope All-Sky Survey

The first three months of sky-survey operation with the Fermi Gamma Ray Space Telescope (Fermi) Large Area Telescope (LAT) reveals 132 bright sources at |b|>10 deg with test statistic greater than 100 (corresponding to about 10 sigma). Two methods, based on the CGRaBS, CRATES and BZCat catalogs, indicate high-confidence associations of 106 of these sources with known AGNs. This sample is referred to as the LAT Bright AGN Sample (LBAS). It contains two radio galaxies, namely Centaurus A and NGC 1275, and 104 blazars consisting of 57 flat spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs), 42 BL Lac objects, and 5 blazars with uncertain classification. Four new blazars were discovered on the basis of the LAT detections. Remarkably, the LBAS includes 10 high-energy peaked BL Lacs (HBLs), sources which were so far hard to detect in the GeV range. Another 10 lower-confidence associations are found. Only thirty three of the sources, plus two at |b|>10 deg, were previously detected with EGRET, probably due to the variable nature of these sources. The analysis of the gamma-ray properties of the LBAS sources reveals that the average GeV spectra of BL Lac objects are significantly harder than the spectra of FSRQs. No significant correlation between radio and peak gamma-ray fluxes is observed. Blazar log N - log S and luminosity functions are constructed to investigate the evolution of the different blazar classes, with positive evolution indicated for FSRQs but none for BLLacs. The contribution of LAT-blazars to the total extragalactic gamma-ray intensity is estimated.Comment: Submitted to ApJ. Not yet refereed. 61 pages, 26 figure