How sensitive is tropospheric oxidation to anthropogenic emissions?

We use a global chemistry transport model to explore how changes in anthropogenic emissions alter ozone production and tropospheric oxidizing capacity over decadal (1990–2010) and centennial timescales (1900–2100). We find that the spatial extent of O3 production and loss in the troposphere changes very little despite large projected increases in precursor emissions. While tropospheric OH shows a long-term decrease of only 20% between 1900 and 2100, there are widespread changes in distribution which alter regional oxidation capacity substantially. We show that the remote marine boundary layer remains an important net sink of O3, as greater production related to increased continental NO x emissions is outweighed by greater O3 destruction. The critical NO x level required to support net O3 production doubles between 1900 and 2100, from 28 to 55 pptv on average, preventing any large-scale shift in production regime

Report of the 1988 2-D Intercomparison Workshop, chapter 3

Several factors contribute to the errors encountered. With the exception of the line-by-line model, all of the models employ simplifying assumptions that place fundamental limits on their accuracy and range of validity. For example, all 2-D modeling groups use the diffusivity factor approximation. This approximation produces little error in tropospheric H2O and CO2 cooling rates, but can produce significant errors in CO2 and O3 cooling rates at the stratopause. All models suffer from fundamental uncertainties in shapes and strengths of spectral lines. Thermal flux algorithms being used in 2-D tracer tranport models produce cooling rates that differ by as much as 40 percent for the same input model atmosphere. Disagreements of this magnitude are important since the thermal cooling rates must be subtracted from the almost-equal solar heating rates to derive the net radiative heating rates and the 2-D model diabatic circulation. For much of the annual cycle, the net radiative heating rates are comparable in magnitude to the cooling rate differences described. Many of the models underestimate the cooling rates in the middle and lower stratosphere. The consequences of these errors for the net heating rates and the diabatic circulation will depend on their meridional structure, which was not tested here. Other models underestimate the cooling near 1 mbar. Suchs errors pose potential problems for future interactive ozone assessment studies, since they could produce artificially-high temperatures and increased O3 destruction at these levels. These concerns suggest that a great deal of work is needed to improve the performance of thermal cooling rate algorithms used in the 2-D tracer transport models

AgentSeal : agent-based model describing movement of marine central-place foragers

Acknowledgement This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No 746602. GA and SB have been partly funded by Gemini Wind park and the NWO (project ALWPP.2017.003). We would like to thank J. Grecian, D. Thomson, M. Fedak, M. Carter, D. Russell, A. Hall, J. Ransijn, H. Vance and M. Civil for help in model design.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

State-of-the-art stochastic data assimilation methods for high-dimensional non-Gaussian problems

This paper compares several commonly used state-of-the-art ensemble-based data assimilation methods in a coherent mathematical notation. The study encompasses different methods that are applicable to high-dimensional geophysical systems, like ocean and atmosphere, and provide an uncertainty estimate. Most variants of Ensemble Kalman Filters, Particle Filters and second-order exact methods are discussed, including Gaussian Mixture Filters, while methods that require an adjoint model or a tangent linear formulation of the model are excluded. The detailed description of all the methods in a mathematically coherent way provides both novices and experienced researchers with a unique overview and new insight in the workings and relative advantages of each method, theoretically and algorithmically, even leading to new filters. Furthermore, the practical implementation details of all ensemble and particle filter methods are discussed to show similarities and differences in the filters aiding the users in what to use when. Finally, pseudo-codes are provided for all of the methods presented in this paper

Chemical characteristics and limnology of Loskop Dam on the Olifants River (South Africa), in light of recent fish and crocodile mortalities

A declining crocodile population and fish mortalities attributed to pansteatitis, along with increasing blooms of Microcystis aeruginosa and Ceratium hirundinella, have led to serious concerns about water quality in Loskop Dam, on the Olifants River, South Africa. Major impacts include acid mine drainage and eutrophication associated with sewage effluent. However, the specific causes of pansteatitis remain elusive. In 2011 the water chemistry and limnology of Loskop Dam were studied to determine factors that may be influencing aquatic ecosystem health. Long-term monitoring data collected by the Department of Water Affairs were analysed for trends using a seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test, and were used to determine the trophic state of Loskop Dam using the Carlson index. Multiple sites were sampled which showed the reservoir was heterogeneous with regard to nutrient concentrations, algal biomass and dissolved metals. Specifically, the transitional zone was characterised by frequent algal blooms, resulting in fluctuating dissolved oxygen (range = 2.1–14.5 mg/ℓ) and pH (range = 7.35–10.59) levels. Using total phosphorus, Secchi depth, and chlorophyll-a concentrations, the trophic state of Loskop Dam was classified as meso- to eutrophic. Significant positive trends were observed in total (Tau = 0.422) and dissolved inorganic (Tau = 0.193) phosphorus.The reservoir showed a monomictic pattern of summer stratification (October to April) and holomictic winter circulation (June to July), with an increase in the depth and extent of anoxia in the hypolimnion when compared to previous research. Simultaneous elevated concentrations of manganese (>370 μg/ℓ) and iron in near-bottom water samples coincided with hypolimnetic anoxia. Aluminium concentrations exceeded the target water quality range (>10 μg/ℓ) during summer (December) in both surface and near-bottom water samples. We conclude that fish in Loskop Dam are periodically exposed to several physiological stressors including elevated ammonia, aluminium, iron and manganese and possibly hydrogen sulphide, as well as low dissolved oxygen. While these factors have never individually been linked to pansteatitis, their combined impacts have not been studied. To ensure the sustainability of Loskop Dam, catchment management plans must focus on reducing phosphorus inputs, and continue seeking treatment solutions for mine-water associated with abandoned and working coal mines.http://www.wrc.org.zaam2014mn201

Trends in malaria morbidity following the introduction of artesunate plus amodiaquine combination in M'lomp village dispensary, south-western Senegal

BACKGROUND: In Thailand, South Africa and Zanzibar, a decrease in malaria morbidity was observed following the introduction of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). In Senegal, therapeutic trials supervised the in vivo efficacy of artesunate plus amodiaquine from 1999 to 2005 at the M'lomp village dispensary. The trends in malaria morbidity in this village were evaluated from 2000 to 2002. METHODS: Each year, between July and December inclusive, fevers treated with antimalarials and slide-proven, uncomplicated malaria cases were collected from dispensary health records. Data were also collected in 1998, just prior to ACT introduction. Pearson's chi square tests and Student tests were used to compare two percentages or two means respectively (alpha = 0.05). RESULTS: Between 1998 and 2002, the total number of fevers treated with antimalarials and their repetitiveness progressively decreased: From 2824 to 945 fevers and from 17.6% to 9.7% (RR1998-2002 = 0.55; [0.44-0.69]; p < 0.0001) respectively. Considering uncomplicated malaria cases only, a decrease was observed in their total number between 2001 and 2002, from 953 to 570 cases. The incidence rate and repetitiveness also decreased. The incidence rate fell from 46.1% in 2001 to 37.5% in 2002 (p < 0.0001) and the repetitiveness decreased from 13.0% in 2000 to 6.6% in 2002 (RR2000-2002 = 0.51; [0.35-0.72]; p = 0.0001). CONCLUSION: The percentage of uncomplicated malaria cases treated with ACT increased, from 18.9% in 2000 to 64.0% in 2002, making it tempting to conclude an impact on malaria morbidity. Nonetheless, the decline in incidence rate of uncomplicated malaria was slight and a lower recorded rainfall was reported in 2002 which could also explain this decline. The context in which ACT is introduced affects the impact on malaria morbidity. In M'lomp, in contrast to studies in Thailand, South Africa and Zanzibar, ACT coverage of malaria cases was low and no vector control measure was deployed. Moreover, the malaria transmission level is higher. In sub-Saharan countries, in order to optimize the impact on malaria morbidity, ACT deployment must be supported, on the one hand, by a strengthening of public health system to ensure a high ACT coverage and, on the other hand, by others measures, such vector control measures

Ixodes ricinus Tick Lipocalins: Identification, Cloning, Phylogenetic Analysis and Biochemical Characterization

BACKGROUND: During their blood meal, ticks secrete a wide variety of proteins that interfere with their host's defense mechanisms. Among these proteins, lipocalins play a major role in the modulation of the inflammatory response. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Screening a cDNA library in association with RT-PCR and RACE methodologies allowed us to identify 14 new lipocalin genes in the salivary glands of the Ixodes ricinus hard tick. A computational in-depth structural analysis confirmed that LIRs belong to the lipocalin family. These proteins were called LIR for "Lipocalin from I. ricinus" and numbered from 1 to 14 (LIR1 to LIR14). According to their percentage identity/similarity, LIR proteins may be assigned to 6 distinct phylogenetic groups. The mature proteins have calculated pM and pI varying from 21.8 kDa to 37.2 kDa and from 4.45 to 9.57 respectively. In a western blot analysis, all recombinant LIRs appeared as a series of thin bands at 50-70 kDa, suggesting extensive glycosylation, which was experimentally confirmed by treatment with N-glycosidase F. In addition, the in vivo expression analysis of LIRs in I. ricinus, examined by RT-PCR, showed homogeneous expression profiles for certain phylogenetic groups and relatively heterogeneous profiles for other groups. Finally, we demonstrated that LIR6 codes for a protein that specifically binds leukotriene B4. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This work confirms that, regarding their biochemical properties, expression profile, and sequence signature, lipocalins in Ixodes hard tick genus, and more specifically in the Ixodes ricinus species, are segregated into distinct phylogenetic groups suggesting potential distinct function. This was particularly demonstrated by the ability of LIR6 to scavenge leukotriene B4. The other LIRs did not bind any of the ligands tested, such as 5-hydroxytryptamine, ADP, norepinephrine, platelet activating factor, prostaglandins D2 and E2, and finally leukotrienes B4 and C4.Journal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tSCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Efficacy of artesunate-amodiaquine for treating uncomplicated falciparum malaria in sub-Saharan Africa: a multi-centre analysis

BACKGROUND: Artesunate and amodiaquine (AS&AQ) is at present the world's second most widely used artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). It was necessary to evaluate the efficacy of ACT, recently adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO) and deployed over 80 countries, in order to make an evidence-based drug policy. METHODS: An individual patient data (IPD) analysis was conducted on efficacy outcomes in 26 clinical studies in sub-Saharan Africa using the WHO protocol with similar primary and secondary endpoints. RESULTS: A total of 11,700 patients (75% under 5 years old), from 33 different sites in 16 countries were followed for 28 days. Loss to follow-up was 4.9% (575/11,700). AS&AQ was given to 5,897 patients. Of these, 82% (4,826/5,897) were included in randomized comparative trials with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) genotyping results and compared to 5,413 patients (half receiving an ACT). AS&AQ and other ACT comparators resulted in rapid clearance of fever and parasitaemia, superior to non-ACT. Using survival analysis on a modified intent-to-treat population, the Day 28 PCR-adjusted efficacy of AS&AQ was greater than 90% (the WHO cut-off) in 11/16 countries. In randomized comparative trials (n = 22), the crude efficacy of AS&AQ was 75.9% (95% CI 74.6-77.1) and the PCR-adjusted efficacy was 93.9% (95% CI 93.2-94.5). The risk (weighted by site) of failure PCR-adjusted of AS&AQ was significantly inferior to non-ACT, superior to dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP, in one Ugandan site), and not different from AS+SP or AL (artemether-lumefantrine). The risk of gametocyte appearance and the carriage rate of AS&AQ was only greater in one Ugandan site compared to AL and DP, and lower compared to non-ACT (p = 0.001, for all comparisons). Anaemia recovery was not different than comparator groups, except in one site in Rwanda where the patients in the DP group had a slower recovery. CONCLUSION: AS&AQ compares well to other treatments and meets the WHO efficacy criteria for use against falciparum malaria in many, but not all, the sub-Saharan African countries where it was studied. Efficacy varies between and within countries. An IPD analysis can inform general and local treatment policies. Ongoing monitoring evaluation is required

The gene expression profiles of primary and metastatic melanoma yields a transition point of tumor progression and metastasis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The process of malignant transformation, progression and metastasis of melanoma is poorly understood. Gene expression profiling of human cancer has allowed for a unique insight into the genes that are involved in these processes. Thus, we have attempted to utilize this approach through the analysis of a series of primary, non-metastatic cutaneous tumors and metastatic melanoma samples.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We have utilized gene microarray analysis and a variety of molecular techniques to compare 40 metastatic melanoma (MM) samples, composed of 22 bulky, macroscopic (replaced) lymph node metastases, 16 subcutaneous and 2 distant metastases (adrenal and brain), to 42 primary cutaneous cancers, comprised of 16 melanoma, 11 squamous cell, 15 basal cell skin cancers. A Human Genome U133 Plus 2.0 array from Affymetrix, Inc. was utilized for each sample. A variety of statistical software, including the Affymetrix MAS 5.0 analysis software, was utilized to compare primary cancers to metastatic melanomas. Separate analyses were performed to directly compare only primary melanoma to metastatic melanoma samples. The expression levels of putative oncogenes and tumor suppressor genes were analyzed by semi- and real-time quantitative RT-PCR (qPCR) and Western blot analysis was performed on select genes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We find that primary basal cell carcinomas, squamous cell carcinomas and thin melanomas express dramatically higher levels of many genes, including <it>SPRR1A/B</it>, <it>KRT16/17</it>, <it>CD24</it>, <it>LOR</it>, <it>GATA3</it>, <it>MUC15</it>, and <it>TMPRSS4</it>, than metastatic melanoma. In contrast, the metastatic melanomas express higher levels of genes such as <it>MAGE</it>, <it>GPR19</it>, <it>BCL2A1</it>, <it>MMP14</it>, <it>SOX5</it>, <it>BUB1</it>, <it>RGS20</it>, and more. The transition from non-metastatic expression levels to metastatic expression levels occurs as melanoma tumors thicken. We further evaluated primary melanomas of varying Breslow's tumor thickness to determine that the transition in expression occurs at different thicknesses for different genes suggesting that the "transition zone" represents a critical time for the emergence of the metastatic phenotype. Several putative tumor oncogenes (<it>SPP-1</it>, <it>MITF</it>, <it>CITED-1</it>, <it>GDF-15</it>, <it>c-Met</it>, <it>HOX </it>loci) and suppressor genes (<it>PITX-1</it>, <it>CST-6</it>, <it>PDGFRL</it>, <it>DSC-3</it>, <it>POU2F3</it>, <it>CLCA2</it>, <it>ST7L</it>), were identified and validated by quantitative PCR as changing expression during this transition period. These are strong candidates for genes involved in the progression or suppression of the metastatic phenotype.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The gene expression profiling of primary, non-metastatic cutaneous tumors and metastatic melanoma has resulted in the identification of several genes that may be centrally involved in the progression and metastatic potential of melanoma. This has very important implications as we continue to develop an improved understanding of the metastatic process, allowing us to identify specific genes for prognostic markers and possibly for targeted therapeutic approaches.</p