Improving management decisions in portuguese forests through fire behaviour modeling: guidelines to support a sustainable landscape

PosterUnderstanding wildfire behavior at the landscape-level is critical to address wildfire impacts in Portuguese forest management planning. Thus, fire spread was simulated in three forested landscape to assist forest managers in identifying high-risk areas for actively integrating stand-level fuel treatments with explicit landscape-level management planning and develop fire prevention priorities. Specifically, several modeling applications to detect significant fire-landscape interactions between stand-level features and fire behavior were fitted to classify Portuguese forests to fire risk levels and create guidelines to support hazard-reduction silvicultural practiceN/

A importância da seleção de informação e da tomada de notas na produção de textos expositivos

Relatório Final apresentado à Escola Superior de Educação de Lisboa para obtenção de grau de mestre em Ensino do 1.º e do 2.º Ciclo do Ensino BásicoNo presente relatório pretende-se demonstrar a importância da seleção de informação e da tomada de notas na produção de textos expositivos. O estudo realizado envolveu alunos do 3.º ano do Ensino Básico, e teve como objetivo desenvolver nos alunos competências de seleção de informação e de tomada de notas, como forma de contribuir para a melhoria da sua competência textual, nomeadamente na produção de textos expositivos. Numa primeira fase, e a partir de uma tarefa que implicava a produção de um texto expositivo a partir da leitura de dois textos sobre o tema escolhido (textos-fonte), avaliaram-se as estratégias utilizadas pelos alunos, quer na seleção de informação, quer na produção do texto. Seguidamente, foram desenhados e implementados sete módulos numa intervenção pedagógico-didática, cujo enfoque se situou na seleção de informação, na tomada de notas e na produção do texto expositivo, tendo em vista a facilitação processual (planificação, textualização e revisão) e a reflexão sobre as atividades desenvolvidas. Por fim, foram aplicados os mesmos instrumentos de recolha de dados utilizados na primeira fase para, posteriormente, se discutirem e avaliarem os resultados do trabalho desenvolvido. Os resultados indicam, após a intervenção, por um lado, melhorias significativas nas tarefas de seleção de informação e de tomada de notas e, por outro lado, evidenciam uma estreita relação entre o desempenho na compreensão leitora e na produção escrita.ABSTRACT This report is intended to demonstrate the importance of selecting information and taking notes in the production of expository texts. The study involved students of the 3rd year of basic education, and aimed to develop students' information selection skills and taking notes, as a contribution to the improvement of its textual competence, particularly in the production of expository texts . In the first phase, and from a task which involved the production of an essay based on the reading of two texts on the chosen theme (text source), evaluated the strategies used by students, either in the selection of information, either in text output. Then, were designed and implemented seven modules in a pedagogical-didactic intervention, whose focus was placed on the selection of information, in making notes and production of expository text, with a view to facilitating procedural (planning, textualization and review) and reflection on the activities. Finally, the same data collection instruments used in the first phase to later be discuss and assess the results of their work were applied. The results indicate, after the intervention on the one hand, significant improvements in information selection of tasks and for taking notes, and on the other hand, reveal a close relationship between the reader in understanding and performance in the writing

O desafio do desenvolvimento rural num contexto de mudança demográfica: Lezíria do Tejo 2001-2021

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de InformaçãoPara se efectuar a Projecção Demográfica, como se propôs realizar nesta investigação, foi questão essencial avaliar, numa primeira fase, os recentes desenvolvimentos demográficos na Lezíria do Tejo, Sub- região estatística NUT III, pondo em prática os principais métodos e técnicas que se encontram ao dispor da demografia, para análise dos aspectos globais de partida: os ritmos de crescimento, as estruturas demográficas e as Taxas Brutas. Numa segunda fase, prospectivar a evolução da população para a região, tendo em linha de conta que se parte de um cenário de base natural, com recurso a dados oficiais do XIVº Recenseamento Geral da População de 2001, fixando uma hipótese para as componentes mortalidade e fecundidade, de modo a avaliar o impacto de cenários de atracção e repulsão, reforçando o papel determinante do fenómeno migrações na estrutura da população. O Cenário de atracção explicará com mais certezas metodológicas a provável evolução da dinâmica desta população no horizonte temporal 2001 a 2021, aspecto relevante para as actuações concertadas ao nível do desenvolvimento sustentável da região. A situação de “duplo envelhecimento” parece ser determinante nesta alteração de tendências e os baixos níveis de fecundidade dificilmente modificáveis num horizonte próximo. Para se atingir, os objectivos propostos, foi, fundamental, contextualizar ao longo do século XX, as tendências do desenvolvimento rural aliado ao problema do envelhecimento, com o intuito de melhor se compreender a tendência futura e o grande contraste entre gerações actuais de idosos e as gerações vindouras numa região onde o sector primário ainda tem peso no contexto nacional. Com uma caracterização, segundo o método das componentes por coortes da estrutura da população em 2021, abre-se um campo de actuação em áreas que carecerão de maior intervenção e disponibiliza-se uma ferramenta para apoiar decisões futuras quanto à gestão sustentável dos espaços agro-florestais da região, assumindo um papel estruturante para a competitividade e qualidade de vida do mundo rural português

Refletindo sobre a prática de ensino supervisionada no 1.º e 2.º Ciclo do Ensino Básico: O impacto de estratégias diferenciadas no domínio da escrita e da gramática numa turma do 6.º ano de escolaridade no ensino do Português do 2.º Ciclo do Ensino Básico

O presente relatório, realizado no âmbito do Mestrado em Ensino do 1.º Ciclo do Ensino Básico e de Português, História e Geografia de Portugal do 2.º Ciclo do Ensino Básico, tem como objetivo abordar duas grandes partes complementares no meu percurso profissional: a dimensão reflexiva e a dimensão investigativa. Na primeira parte, que contempla uma dimensão reflexiva, realizase uma viagem pelas principais aprendizagens e pelos desafios mais significativos em contexto de Prática Pedagógica do 1.º CEB e Português, História e Geografia de Portugal do 2.º CEB. Nesse sentido, ao longo desta secção, apresenta-se uma reflexão crítica e fundamentada sobre as aprendizagens e progressos, que possibilitaram um desenvolvimento ao nível profissional e pessoal, enquanto futura professora. Na segunda parte do relatório, que congrega a dimensão investigativa, desenvolve-se um ensaio investigativo sobre a Pedagogia Diferenciada, no âmbito do Português, em concreto no domínio da escrita e da gramática. Centra-se este trabalho na utilização de diversas estratégias diferenciadas para a obtenção de resultados positivos face à competência ortográfica e a alguns conteúdos gramaticais estudados numa turma do 6.º ano de escolaridade. Os resultados indicam que as estratégias diferenciadas contribuíram para os resultados positivos no domínio da escrita, mostrando que os alunos evidenciaram progresso ao nível da ortografia. No que concerne à gramática, com a estratégia diferenciada utilizada, em termos gerais, os alunos evidenciaram algumas dificuldades em colmatar as suas dificuldades

Predicting growing stock volume of Eucalyptus plantations using 3-D point clouds derived from UAV imagery and ALS data

Estimating forest inventory variables is important in monitoring forest resources and mitigating climate change. In this respect, forest managers require flexible, non-destructive methods for estimating volume and biomass. High-resolution and low-cost remote sensing data are increasingly available to measure three-dimensional (3D) canopy structure and to model forest structural attributes. The main objective of this study was to evaluate and compare the individual tree volume estimates derived from high-density point clouds obtained from airborne laser scanning (ALS) and digital aerial photogrammetry (DAP) in Eucalyptus spp. plantations. Object-based image analysis (OBIA) techniques were applied for individual tree crown (ITC) delineation. The ITC algorithm applied correctly detected and delineated 199 trees from ALS-derived data, while 192 trees were correctly identified using DAP-based point clouds acquired fromUnmannedAerialVehicles(UAV), representing accuracy levels of respectively 62% and 60%. Addressing volume modelling, non-linear regression fit based on individual tree height and individual crown area derived from the ITC provided the following results: Model E ciency (Mef) = 0.43 and 0.46, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) = 0.030 m3 and 0.026 m3, rRMSE = 20.31% and 19.97%, and an approximately unbiased results (0.025 m3 and 0.0004 m3) using DAP and ALS-based estimations, respectively. No significant di erence was found between the observed value (field data) and volume estimation from ALS and DAP (p-value from t-test statistic = 0.99 and 0.98, respectively). The proposed approaches could also be used to estimate basal area or biomass stocks in Eucalyptus spp. plantationsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Implementação de práticas Lean em PMEs da indústria portuguesa

Atualmente, o efeito da globalização atinge todas as indústrias, levando a malha empresarial a atravessar um período de grande pressão de condições de mercado em constante mudança. A diversificação e aumento da oferta aliadas a ciclos de vida cada vez mais curtos dos produtos conduz as empresas a procurarem destacar-se pela produção customizada, rapidez e elevada qualidade. A capacidade de inovação e eficiência face ao paradigma atual tornou-se o fator diferencial para o sucesso de qualquer organização. Neste contexto as práticas Lean surgem como uma filosofia de gestão focadas na maximização do valor gerado para o cliente através da redução de desperdícios, tendo por base uma visão de constante melhoria. Esta tese pretende caracterizar a implementação da metodologia Lean, em empresas PME – pela sua esmagadora presença no mercado nacional. Para explorar este tópico, realizou-se uma pesquisa indutiva e exploratória, e entrevistaram-se dez empresas PME da indústria portuguesa onde a metodologia Lean estava a ser aplicada. Os resultados obtidos evidenciam que: (1) os principais impulsionadores da implementação são os processos de certificação ou a gestão de topo; (2) a melhoria contínua, os 5S e a gestão visual são as práticas mais valorizadas pelas PME; (3) a falta de recursos e de conhecimento são os principais entraves ao florescimento desta prática; (4) entre os benefícios refletiu-se um aumento de produtividade, qualidade e segurança, e melhor gestão de espaço. Estes resultados sugerem que as PME têm interesse e estão a fazer esforços para implementar práticas Lean, no entanto as dificuldades encontradas têm um efeito de retardamento no sucesso da implementação.Nowadays the effect of globalization has an impact on all types of industries, putting great pressure on companies due to the continuously changing market conditions. The diversity and rise in the offer of services and products allied with increasingly shorter product life cycles drives companies to try to stand out through customization, speed, and quality. Therefore, the ability to innovate and efficiently face the current paradigm has become the differential factor for the success of any organization. In this context, Lean practices emerge as a management philosophy focused on maximizing the value generated by reducing waste, following continuous improvement. This thesis intends to characterize the implementation of Lean methodology in SME companies – due to their overwhelming presence in the national market. To explore this topic, it will be conducted an inductive and exploratory research. Plus, ten interviews of SME companies in the Portuguese industry where the Lean methodology was being applied. The results obtained show that: (1) the main drivers for implementation are the certification processes or management influence; (2) continuous improvement, 5S and visual management are the practices most valued by SMEs; (3) lack of resources and knowledge are the main obstacles to the development of this practice; (4) among the benefits there was an increase in productivity, quality and safety, and better space management. These results suggest that SMEs are interested and are making efforts to implement Lean practices, however the difficulties encountered are having a delaying effect on the success of the implementations

Evaluacion de la probabilidad de ocurrencia de fuegos en rodales de Pinus pinaster Ait en Portugal

Maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) is an important conifer from the western Mediterranean Basin extending over 22% of the forest area in Portugal. In the last three decades nearly 4% of Maritime pine area has been burned by wildfires. Yet no wildfire occurrence probability models are available and forest and fire management planning activities are thus carried out mostly independently of each other. This paper presents research to address this gap. Specifically, it presents a model to assess wildfire occurrence probability in regular and pure Maritime pine stands in Portugal. Emphasis was in developing a model based on easily available inventory data so that it might be useful to forest managers. For that purpose, data from the last two Portuguese National Forest Inventories (NFI) and data from wildfire perimeters in the years from 1998 to 2004 and from 2006 to 2007 were used. A binary logistic regression model was build using biometric data from the NFL Biometric data included indicators that might be changed by operations prescribed in forest planning. Results showed that the probability of wildfire occurrence in a stand increases in stand located at steeper slopes and with high shrubs load while it decreases with precipitation and with stand basal area. These results are instrumental for assessing the impact of forest management options on wildfire probability thus helping forest managers to reduce the risk of wildfire

A three-step approach to post-fire mortality modelling in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) stands for enhanced forest planning in Portugal

Maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait) is a very important timber-producing species in Portugal with a yield of ~67.1 million m3 year21. It covers ~22.6 per cent of the forest area (710.6 × 103 ha). Fire is the most significant threat to maritime pine plantations. This paper discusses research aiming at the development of post-fire mortality models for P. pinaster Ait stands in Portugal that can be used for enhanced integration of forest and fire management planning activities. Post-fire mortality was modelled using biometric and fire data from 2005/2006 National Forest Inventory plots and other sample plots within 2006–2008 fire perimeters. A three-step modelling strategy based on logistic regression methods was used. Firstly, the probability of mortality to occur after a wildfire in a stand is predicted and secondly, the degree of mortality caused by a wildfire on stands where mortality occurs is quantified. Thirdly, mortality is distributed among trees. The models are based on easily measurable tree characteristics so that forest managers may predict post-fire mortality based on forest structure. The models show that relative mortality decreases when average d.b.h. increases, while slope and tree size diversity increase the mortalityinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Modeling post-fire mortality in pure and mixed forest stands in Portugal—A forest planning-oriented model

Assessing impacts of management strategies may allow designing more resistant forests to wildfires. Planning-oriented models to predict the effect of stand structure and forest composition on mortality for supporting fire-smart management decisions, and allowing its inclusion in forest management optimization systems were developed. Post-fire mortality was modeled as a function of measurable forest inventory data and projections over time in 165 pure and 76 mixed forest stands in Portugal, collected by the 5th National Forest Inventory plots (NFI) plus other sample plots from ForFireS project, intercepted within 2006–2008 wildfire perimeters’ data. Presence and tree survival were obtained by examining 2450 trees from 16 species one year after the wildfire occurrence. A set of logistic regression models were developed under a three-stage modeling system: firstly multiple fixed-effects at stand-level that comprises a sub-model to predict mortality from wildfire; and another for the proportion of dead trees on stands killed by fire. At tree-level due to the nested structure of the data analyzed (trees within stands), a mixed-effect model was developed to estimate mortality among trees in a fire event. The results imply that the variation of tree mortality decreases when tree diameter at breast height increases. Moreover, the relative mortality increases with stand density, higher altitude and steeper slopes. In the same conditions, conifers are more prone to die than eucalyptus and broadleaves. Pure stands of broadleaves exhibit noticeably higher fire resistance than mixed stands of broadleaves and others species compositionThis research was supported by Project UID/AGR/00239/2013, PTDC/AGR-CFL/64146/2006 “Decision support tools for integrating fire and forest management planning” and project FIRE-ENGINE “Flexible Design of Forest Fire Management Systems” (MIT/FSE/0064/2009), both funded by the Portuguese Science Foundation (FCT), and contributes to the activities of the ALTERFOR Project “Alternative models and robust decision-making for future forest management”—H2020-ISIB-2015-2/grant agreement No. 67654, funded by European Union Seventh Framework Programme. This research has received also funding from the European Union’s H2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 691149 (SuFoRun). The authors would like to thank the Portuguese Science Foundation for funding the doctoral scholarships of Brigite Botequim (SFRH/ BD/44830/2008) and the Post Doc grant SFRH/BPD/96806/2013 of Susete Marques. Researcher Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo was supported by a “Ramon y Cajal” research contract from the MINECO (Ref. RYC-2013-14262) and has received funding from CERCA Programme / Generalitat de Catalunya. In addition, the authors wish to acknowledge the Portuguese Forest Service (ICNF) for supplying the perimeters of wildfires and NFI Databases and ForFireS Project for providing the inventory DatabasesS

A model shrub biomass accumulation as a tool to support management of portuguese forests

Research ArticleAssessment of forest fuel loading is a prerequisite for most fire management activities. However, the inclusion of shrub biomass in forest planning has been hindered by the inability to predict its growth and accumulation. The main objective of this study was to model shrub biomass over time under a tree canopy with the aim of including shrub management in fire risk mitigation plans. To this purpose, data was obtained from the 4th and 5th Portuguese National Forest Inventories. Five biologically realistic models were built to describe shrub biomass accumulation in Portuguese forests. The selected model indicates that maximum biomass is affected by stand basal area and the percentage of resprouting shrub species in the stand. Biomass growth rate was clearly affected by the regeneration strategies of shrubs in combination with climatic conditions (mean annual temperature). The model can be used in the accumulation form for initialization purposes or in one of the two alternative difference forms to project observed shrub biomass. The model proposed in this study facilitates the inclusion of shrub biomass in forest growth simulations, and will contribute to more accurate estimates of fire behavior characteristics and stored carbon. This is essential to improve decision-making in forest management plans that integrate fire risk, namely to schedule understory fuel treatmentsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio