Parameterized model order reduction for nonlinear dynamical systems

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2006.Includes bibliographical references (p. 67-70).The presence of several nonlinear analog circuits and Micro-Electro-Mechanical (MEM) components in modern mixed signal System-on-Chips (SoC) makes the fully automatic synthesis and optimization of such systems an extremely challenging task. The research presented in this thesis concerns the development of techniques for generating Parameterized Reduced Order Models (PROMs) of nonlinear dynamical systems. Such reduced order models could serve as a first step towards the automatic and accurate characterization of geometrically complex components and subcircuits, eventually enabling their synthesis and optimization. This work combines elements from a non-parameterized trajectory piecewise linear method for nonlinear systems with a moment matching paramneterized technique for linear systems. Exploiting these two methods one can create four different algorithms or generating PROMs of nonlinear systems. The algorithms were tested on three different systems: a MEM switch and two nonlinear analog circuits. All three examples contain distributed strong nonlinearities and possess dependence on several geometric parameters.(cont.) Using the proposed algorithms, the local and global parameter-space accuracy of the reduced order models can be adjusted as desired. Models call be created which are extremely accurate over a narrow range of parameter values. as well as models which are less accurate locally but still provide adequate accuracy over a much wider range of parameter values.by Bradley N. Bond.S.M

Stability-preserving model reduction for linear and nonlinear systems arising in analog circuit applications

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2010.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 221-229).Despite the increasing presence of RF and analog components in personal wireless electronics, such as mobile communication devices, the automated design and optimization of such systems is still an extremely challenging task. This is primarily due to the presence of both parasitic elements and highly nonlinear elements, which makes simulation computationally expensive and slow. The ability to generate parameterized reduced order models of analog systems could serve as a first step toward the automatic and accurate characterization of geometrically complex components and subcircuits, eventually enabling their synthesis and optimization. This thesis presents techniques for reduced order modeling of linear and nonlinear systems arising in analog applications. Emphasis is placed on developing techniques capable of preserving important system properties, such as stability, and parameter dependence in the reduced models. The first technique is a projection-based model reduction approach for linear systems aimed at generating stable and passive models from large linear systems described by indefinite, and possibly even mildly unstable, matrices. For such systems, existing techniques are either prohibitively computationally expensive or incapable of guaranteeing stability and passivity. By forcing the reduced model to be described by definite matrices, we are able to derive a pair of stability constraints that are linear in terms of projection matrices.(cont.) These constraints can be used to formulate a semidefinite optimization problem whose solution is an optimal stabilizing projection framework. The second technique is a projection-based model reduction approach for highly nonlinear systems that is based on the trajectory piecewise linear (TPWL) method. Enforcing stability in nonlinear reduced models is an extremely difficult task that is typically ignored in most existing techniques. Our approach utilizes a new nonlinear projection in order to ensure stability in each of the local models used to describe the nonlinear reduced model. The TPWL approach is also extended to handle parameterized models, and a sensitivity-based training system is presented that allows us to efficiently select inputs and parameter values for training. Lastly, we present a system identification approach to model reduction for both linear and nonlinear systems. This approach utilizes given time-domain data, such as input/output samples generated from transient simulation, in order to identify a compact stable model that best fits the given data. Our procedure is based on minimization of a quantity referred to as the 'robust equation error', which, provided the model is incrementally stable, serves as up upper bound for a measure of the accuracy of the identified model termed 'linearized output error'. Minimization of this bound, subject to an incremental stability constraint, can be cast as a semidefinite optimization problem.by Bradley Neil Bond.Ph.D

CMB-S4: Forecasting Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves

CMB-S4---the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment---is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the Universe, from the highest energies at the dawn of time through the growth of structure to the present day. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semi-analytic projection tool, targeted explicitly towards optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, $r$, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2--3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semi-analytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for $r > 0.003$ at greater than $5\sigma$, or, in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of $r < 0.001$ at $95\%$ CL.Comment: 24 pages, 8 figures, 9 tables, submitted to ApJ. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1907.0447

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission

Twenty-six years ago a small committee report, building on earlier studies, expounded a compelling and poetic vision for the future of astronomy, calling for an infrared-optimized space telescope with an aperture of at least $4m$. With the support of their governments in the US, Europe, and Canada, 20,000 people realized that vision as the $6.5m$ James Webb Space Telescope. A generation of astronomers will celebrate their accomplishments for the life of the mission, potentially as long as 20 years, and beyond. This report and the scientific discoveries that follow are extended thank-you notes to the 20,000 team members. The telescope is working perfectly, with much better image quality than expected. In this and accompanying papers, we give a brief history, describe the observatory, outline its objectives and current observing program, and discuss the inventions and people who made it possible. We cite detailed reports on the design and the measured performance on orbit.Comment: Accepted by PASP for the special issue on The James Webb Space Telescope Overview, 29 pages, 4 figure

CMB-S4: Forecasting Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves

Abstract: CMB-S4—the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment—is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semianalytic projection tool, targeted explicitly toward optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2–3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments, given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semianalytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for r > 0.003 at greater than 5σ, or in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of r < 0.001 at 95% CL

Global status and conservation potential of reef sharks

Decades of overexploitation have devastated shark populations, leaving considerable doubt as to their ecological status1,2. Yet much of what is known about sharks has been inferred from catch records in industrial fisheries, whereas far less information is available about sharks that live in coastal habitats3. Here we address this knowledge gap using data from more than 15,000 standardized baited remote underwater video stations that were deployed on 371 reefs in 58 nations to estimate the conservation status of reef sharks globally. Our results reveal the profound impact that fishing has had on reef shark populations: we observed no sharks on almost 20% of the surveyed reefs. Reef sharks were almost completely absent from reefs in several nations, and shark depletion was strongly related to socio-economic conditions such as the size and proximity of the nearest market, poor governance and the density of the human population. However, opportunities for the conservation of reef sharks remain: shark sanctuaries, closed areas, catch limits and an absence of gillnets and longlines were associated with a substantially higher relative abundance of reef sharks. These results reveal several policy pathways for the restoration and management of reef shark populations, from direct top-down management of fishing to indirect improvement of governance conditions. Reef shark populations will only have a high chance of recovery by engaging key socio-economic aspects of tropical fisheries

Widespread diversity deficits of coral reef sharks and rays

A global survey of coral reefs reveals that overfishing is driving resident shark species toward extinction, causing diversity deficits in reef elasmobranch (shark and ray) assemblages. Our species-level analysis revealed global declines of 60 to 73% for five common resident reef shark species and that individual shark species were not detected at 34 to 47% of surveyed reefs. As reefs become more shark-depleted, rays begin to dominate assemblages. Shark-dominated assemblages persist in wealthy nations with strong governance and in highly protected areas, whereas poverty, weak governance, and a lack of shark management are associated with depauperate assemblages mainly composed of rays. Without action to address these diversity deficits, loss of ecological function and ecosystem services will increasingly affect human communities

CMB-S4: Forecasting Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves

CMB-S4 - the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment - is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semianalytic projection tool, targeted explicitly toward optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2-3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments, given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semianalytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for r > 0.003 at greater than 5σ, or in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of r < 0.001 at 95% CL