New physical characterization of the Fontana Lapilli basaltic Plinian eruption, Nicaragua

The Fontana Lapilli deposit was erupted in the late Pleistocene from a vent, or multiple vents, located near Masaya volcano (Nicaragua) and is the product of one of the largest basaltic Plinian eruptions studied so far. This eruption evolved from an initial sequence of fluctuating fountain-like events and moderately explosive pulses to a sustained Plinian episode depositing fall beds of highly vesicular basaltic-andesite scoria (SiO2 > 53wt%). Samples show unimodal grain size distribution and a moderate sorting that are uniform in time. The juvenile component predominates (> 96wt%) and consists of vesicular clasts with both sub-angular and fluidal, elongated shapes. We obtain a maximum plume height of 32km and an associated mass eruption rate of 1.4 × 108kg s−1 for the Plinian phase. Estimates of erupted volume are strongly sensitive to the technique used for the calculation and to the distribution of field data. Our best estimate for the erupted volume of the majority of the climactic Plinian phase is between 2.9 and 3.8km3 and was obtained by applying a power-law fitting technique with different integration limits. The estimated eruption duration varies between 4 and 6h. Marine-core data confirm that the tephra thinning is better fitted by a power-law than by an exponential tren

Novel antidiabetic drugs and cardiovascular risk: Primum non nocere

Aims Diabetes treatments aim at preventing undesirable metabolic effects of hyperglycemia and at preventing/reducing tissue damage, including cardiovascular (CV) events. For approval, novel diabetes drugs undergo early systematic investigation to assess CV safety. This review provides an updated analysis of the results of recent studies examining novel diabetes medications and CV outcomes. Data synthesis The new regulatory guidelines enforce adjudication of all CV events when testing novel diabetes drugs. Endpoints of CV mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and hospitalization for heart failure (HF) were included in the most recent clinical studies on novel antihyperglycemics. These are: the incretin mimetics glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists (GLP1-RA), the incretin enhancers dipeptidylpeptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors (DPP4-I or gliptins), and the sodium-glucose cotransporter (SGLT2) inhibitors (SGLT2-I or gliflozins). The studies ELIXA and EXAMINE, testing lixisenatide and alogliptin, respectively, revealed non-inferiority versus placebo in terms of CV safety. The SAVOR-TIMI 53 results confirmed overall CV safety of saxagliptin, but raised a warning related to the increase in the risk of hospitalization for HF in the saxagliptin group. Recently, TECOS revealed a particularly favorable CV profile for sitagliptin while EMPA-REG showed a significant CV risk reduction in empagliflozin treated subjects. Ongoing studies will provide additional data on CV safety for other GLP1-RAs, DPP4-I and SGLT2-I. Conclusions Results of safety outcome studies focused on CV events, including HF and mortality for CV causes, are not homogeneous. A critical analysis of these studies may help cardiologists and diabetes specialists to adapt their therapeutic choices to individual patients

Characterization of tephra deposits with limited exposure: the example of the two largest explosive eruptions at Nisyros volcano (Greece)

Explosive eruptions associated with tephra deposits that are only exposed in proximal areas are difficult to characterize. In fact, the determination of physical parameters such as column height, mass eruption rate, erupted volume, and eruption duration is mainly based on empirical models and is therefore very sensitive to the quality of the field data collected. We have applied and compared different modeling approaches for the characterization of the two main tephra deposits, the Lower Pumice (LP) and Upper Pumice (UP) of Nisyros volcano, Greece, which are exposed only within 5km of the probable vent. Isopach and isopleth maps were compiled for two possible vent locations (on the north and on the south rim of the caldera), and different models were applied to calculate the column height, the erupted volume, and the mass eruption rate. We found a column height of about 15km above sea level and a mass eruption rate of about 2 × 107kg/s for both eruptions regardless of the vent location considered. In contrast, the associated wind velocity for both UP and LP varied between 0 and 20m/s for the north and south vent, respectively. The derived erupted volume for the south vent (considered as the best vent location) ranges between 2 and 27 × 108m3 for the LP and between 1 and 5 × 108m3 for the UP based on the application of four different methods (integration of exponential fit based on one isopach line, integration of exponential and power-law fit based on two isopach lines, and an inversion technique combined with an advection-diffusion model). The eruption that produced the UP could be classified as subplinian. Discrepancies associated with different vent locations are smaller than the discrepancies associated with the use of different models for the determination of erupted mass, plume height, and mass eruption rate. Proximal outcrops are predominantly coarse grained with ≥90wt% of the clasts ranging between −6ϕ and 0ϕ. The associated total grainsize distribution is considered to result from a combination of turbulent fallout from both the plume margins and the umbrella region, and as a result, it is fines-depleted. Given that primary deposit thickness observed on Nisyros for both LP and UP is between 1 and 8m, if an event of similar scale were to happen again, it would have a significant impact on the entire island with major damage to infrastructure, agriculture, and tourism. Neighboring islands and the continent could also be significantly affecte

Ash aggregation during the 11 February 2010 partial dome collapse of the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

On 11 February 2010, Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, underwent a partial dome collapse (~ 50 × 106 m3) and a short-lived Vulcanian explosion towards the end. Three main pyroclastic units were identified N and NE of the volcano: dome-collapse pyroclastic density current (PDC) deposits, fountain-collapse PDC deposits formed by the Vulcanian explosion, and tephra-fallout deposits associated with elutriation from the dome-collapse and fountain-collapse PDCs (i.e. co-PDC fallout deposit). The fallout associated with the Vulcanian explosion was mostly dispersed E and SE by high altitude winds. All units N and NE of the volcano contain variable amounts and types of particle aggregates, although the co-PDC fallout deposit is associated with the largest abundance (i.e. up to 24 wt%). The size of aggregates found in the co-PDC fallout deposit increases with distance from the volcano and proximity to the sea, reaching a maximum diameter of 12 mm about 500 m from the coast. The internal grain size of all aggregates have nearly identical distributions (with Mdϕ ≈ 4–5), with particles in the size categories > 3 ϕ (i.e. < 250 μm) being distributed in similar proportions within the aggregates but in different proportions within distinct internal layers. In fact, most aggregates are characterized by a coarse grained central core occupying the main part of the aggregate, coated by a thin layer of finer ash (single-layer aggregates), while others have one or two additional layers accreted over the core (multiple-layer aggregates). Calculated aggregate porosity and settling velocity vary between 0.3 and 0.5 and 11–21 m s− 1, respectively. The aggregate size shows a clear correlation with both the core size and the size of the largest particles found in the core. The large abundance of aggregates in the co-PDC fallout deposits suggests that the buoyant plumes elutriated above PDCs represent an optimal environment for the formation (particle collision) and development (aggregate layering) of particle aggregates. However, specific conditions are required, including i) a large availability of water (in this case provided by the steam plumes associated with the entrance of PDCs into the ocean), ii) presence of plume regions with different grain-size features (i.e. both median size and sorting) that allows for the development of multiple layers, iii) strong turbulence that permits both particle collision and the transition of the aggregates through different plume regions, iv) presence of hot regions (e.g. PDCs) that promote aggregate preservation (in this case also facilitated by the presence of sea salt)

A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes – Part 1: Hazard assessment

This is the final version of the article. Available from EGU via the DOI in this record.In order to assist the elaboration of proactive measures for the management of future volcanic eruptions in Iceland, we developed a new scenario-based approach to assess the hazard associated with tephra dispersal and sedimentation at various scales and for multiple sources. The target volcanoes are Hekla, Katla, Eyjafjallajökull and Askja, selected either for their high probabilities of eruption and/or their high potential impact. By coupling tephrostratigraphic studies, probabilistic techniques and modelling, we developed comprehensive eruption scenarios for both short- and long-lasting eruptions and compiled hazard maps for tephra ground deposition at a national scale and air concentration at a European scale using the TEPHRA2 and FALL3D models, respectively. New algorithms for the identification of realistic sets of eruptive source parameters are investigated, which assist the generation of probability density functions of eruption source parameters for the selected scenarios. Aggregation processes were accounted for using various empirical models. Outcomes, i.e. probabilities conditioned to the occurrence of an eruption, help the assessment and comparison of hazard levels at different scales. For example, at a national scale Askja has a 5–10% probability of blanketing the easternmost half of the country with a tephra accumulation of at least 1 kg m−2. At a continental scale, Katla has a 5–10% probability of producing ash clouds with concentrations of 2 mg m−3 over the UK, Scandinavia and northern Europe with a mean arrival time of 48–72 h and a mean persistence time of 6–18 h. In a companion paper, Scaini et al. (2014) present a vulnerability assessment for Iceland to ground deposition of tephra and for the European air traffic to airborne ash which, combined with the outcomes of the present paper, constitute one of the first comprehensive multi-scale risk assessment associated with tephra dispersal and sedimentation.S. Biass is supported by SNF (#200021-129997) and ESF/MemoVolc (#5193) subsides. C. Scaini is partly supported by the Spanish Research Project ATMOST (CGL2009-10244) and by the SNF (IZK0Z2_ 142343)

Socioeconomic and behavioral factors associated with tuberculosis diagnostic delay in Lima, Peru

Early detection and diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) is a global priority. Prolonged symptom duration prior to TB diagnosis is associated with increased morbidity, mortality and risk of transmission. We aimed to determine socioeconomic and behavioral factors associated with diagnostic delays among patients with TB. Data were collected from 105 patients with TB using a semi-structured interview guide in Lima, Peru. Factors associated with diagnostic delay were analyzed using negative binomial regression. The median delay from when symptoms commenced and the first positive diagnostic sample in public health facilities was 57 days (interquartile range (IQR): 28-126). In multivariable analysis, greater diagnostic delay was independently associated with patient older age; female sex; lower personal income prior to diagnosis; living with fewer people; and having more visits to professional health facilities prior to diagnosis (all p<0.05). Patients who first sought care at a private health facility had more visits overall to professional health facilities prior to diagnosis than those who first sought care from public or insured employee health facilities and had longer diagnostic delay in analysis adjusted for age and sex. Patients with TB were significantly more likely to first self-medicate than to visit professional health facilities prior to diagnosis (p=0.003). Thus, diagnostic delay was prolonged, greatest among older, low-income women and varied according to the type of care sought by individuals when their symptoms commenced. These findings suggest that TB case finding initiatives should target vulnerable groups in informal and private health facilities, where many patients with TB first seek healthcare

Tephra hazard assessment at Mt. Etna (Italy)

In this paper we present a probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Mt. Etna (Italy) associated with both short- and long-lived eruptions. Eruptive scenarios and eruption source parameters were defined based on the geological record, while an advection–diffusion–sedimentation model was used to capture the variation in wind speed and direction with time after calibration with the field data. Two different types of eruptions were considered in our analysis: eruptions associated with strong short-lived plumes and eruptions associated with weak long-lived plumes. Our probabilistic approach was based on one eruption scenario for both types and on an eruption range scenario for eruptions producing weak long-lived plumes. Due to the prevailing wind direction, the eastern flanks are the most affected by tephra deposition, with the 122 BC Plinian and 2002–2003 eruptions showing the highest impact both on infrastructures and agriculture

How do the grain size characteristics of a tephra deposit change over time?

Financial support was provided by the National Science Foundation of America through grant 1202692 ‘Comparative Island Ecodynamics in the North Atlantic’ and grant 1249313 ‘Tephra layers and early warning signals for critical transitions’ (both to AJD).Volcanologists frequently use grain size distributions (GSDs) in tephra layers to infer eruption parameters. However, for long-past eruptions, the accuracy of the reconstruction depends upon the correspondence between the initial tephra deposit and preserved tephra layer on which inferences are based. We ask: how closely does the GSD of a decades-old tephra layer resemble the deposit from which it originated? We addressed this question with a study of the tephra layer produced by the eruption of Mount St Helens, USA, in May 1980. We compared grain size distributions from the fresh, undisturbed tephra with grain size measurements from the surviving tephra layer. We found that the overall grain size characteristics of the tephra layer were similar to the original deposit, and that distinctive features identified by earlier authors had been preserved. However, detailed analysis of our samples showed qualitative differences, specifically a loss of fine material (which we attributed to ‘winnowing’). Understanding how tephra deposits are transformed over time is critical to efforts to reconstruct past eruptions, but inherently difficult to study. We propose long-term, tephra application experiments as a potential way forward.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes – Part 2: Vulnerability and impact

This is the final version of the article. Available from EGU via the DOI in this record.We perform a multi-scale impact assessment of tephra fallout and dispersal from explosive volcanic activity in Iceland. A companion paper (Biass et al., 2014; "A multi-scale risk assessment of tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes – Part I: hazard assessment") introduces a multi-scale probabilistic assessment of tephra hazard based on selected eruptive scenarios at four Icelandic volcanoes (Hekla, Askja, Eyjafjallajökull and Katla) and presents probabilistic hazard maps for tephra accumulation in Iceland and tephra dispersal across Europe. Here, we present the associated vulnerability and impact assessment that describes the importance of single features at national and European levels and considers several vulnerability indicators for tephra dispersal and deposition. At the national scale, we focus on physical, systemic and economic vulnerability of Iceland to tephra fallout, whereas at the European scale we focus on the systemic vulnerability of the air traffic system to tephra dispersal. This is the first vulnerability and impact assessment analysis of this type and, although it does not include all the aspects of physical and systemic vulnerability, it allows for identifying areas on which further specific analysis should be performed. Results include vulnerability maps for Iceland and European airspace and allow for the qualitative identification of the impacts at both scales in the case of an eruption occurring. Maps produced at the national scale show that tephra accumulation associated with all eruptive scenarios considered can disrupt the main electricity network, in particular in relation to an eruption of Askja. Results also show that several power plants would be affected if an eruption occurred at Hekla, Askja or Katla, causing a substantial systemic impact due to their importance for the Icelandic economy. Moreover, the Askja and Katla eruptive scenarios considered could have substantial impacts on agricultural activities (crops and pastures). At the European scale, eruptive scenarios at Askja and Katla are likely to affect European airspace, having substantial impacts, in particular, in the Keflavík and London flight information regions (FIRs), but also at FIRs above France, Germany and Scandinavia. Impacts would be particularly intense in the case of long-lasting activity at Katla. The occurrence of eruptive scenarios at Hekla is likely to produce high impacts at Keflavík FIR and London FIRs, and, in the case of higher magnitude, can also impact France's FIRs. Results could support land use and emergency planning at the national level and risk management strategies of the European air traffic system. Although we focus on Iceland, the proposed methodology could be applied to other active volcanic areas, enhancing the long-term tephra risk management. Moreover, the outcomes of this work pose the basis for quantitative analyses of expected impacts and their integration in a multi-risk framework.This work has been funded by the Spanish research project “Atmospheric transport models and massive parallelism: applications to volcanic ash clouds and dispersion of pollutants at an urban micro-scale” (ATMOST, CGL2009-10244) and the Fonds National Suisse project “Volcanic-Ash Dispersal from Selected Icelandic Volcanoes: Risk Assessment for the European Region” (IZK0Z2_142343). S. Biass is supported by SNF (#200021-129997) and ESF/MemoVolc (#5193) subsidies