DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment.

Standard practice for the estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models maintains the assumption that economic variables are properly measured by a single indicator, and that all relevant information for the estimation is summarized by a small number of data series. However, recent empirical research on factor models has shown that information contained in large data sets is relevant for the evolution of important macroeconomic series. This suggests that conventional model estimates and inference based on estimated DSGE models might be distorted. In this paper, we propose an empirical framework for the estimation of DSGE models that exploits the relevant information from a data-rich environment. This framework provides an interpretation of all information contained in a large data set, and in particular of the latent factors, through the lenses of a DSGE model. The estimation involves Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. We apply this estimation approach to a state-of-the-art DSGE monetary model. We find evidence of imperfect measurement of the model's theoretical concepts, in particular for inflation. We show that exploiting more information is important for accurate estimation of the model's concepts and shocks, and that it implies different conclusions about key structural parameters and the sources of economic fluctuations.DSGE models ; Measurement error ; Large data sets ; Factor models ; Forecasting ; MCMC ; Bayesian estimation.

Towards a historical ecology of intertidal foraging in the Mafia Archipelago: archaeomalacology and implications for marine resource management

Understanding the timing and nature of human influence on coastal and island ecosystems is becoming a central concern in archaeological research, particularly when investigated within a historical ecology framework. Unfortunately, the coast and islands of eastern Africa have not figured significantly within this growing body of literature, but are important given their historically contingent environmental, social, and political contexts, as well as the considerable threats now posed to marine ecosystems. Here, we begin developing a longer-term understanding of past marine resource use in the Mafia Archipelago (eastern Africa), an area of high ecological importance containing the Mafia Island Marine Park. Focusing on the comparatively less researched marine invertebrates provides a means for initiating discussion on potential past marine ecosystem structure, human foraging and environmental shifts, and the implications for contemporary marine resource management. The available evidence suggests that human-environment interactions over the last 2000 years were complex and dynamic; however, these data raise more questions than answers regarding the specific drivers of changes observed in the archaeomalacological record. This is encouraging as a baseline investigation and emphasizes the need for further engagement with historical ecology by a range of cognate disciplines to enhance our understanding of these complex issues

Developmental associations between victimization and body mass index from 3 to 10 years in a population sample

In the current prospective study, we investigated (1) whether high and low BMI in early childhood puts a child at risk of victimization by their peers, and (2) whether being victimised increases BMI over the short- and long-term, independent of the effect of BMI on victimization. We also examined whether gender moderated these prospective associations. Participants were 1344 children who were assessed yearly from ages 3 -10 years as part of the Québec Longitudinal Study of Child Development (QLSCD). BMI predicted annual increases in victimization for girls aged 6 years and over; for boys aged 7 and 8 years of age, higher BMI reduced victimization over the school year. Further, victimization predicted annual increases in BMI for girls after age 6 years. When these short-term effects were held constant, victimization was also shown to have a three and five-year influence on annual BMI changes for girls from age 3 years. These short- and long-term cross-lagged effects were evident when the effects of family adversity were controlled. The findings support those from previous prospective research showing a link between higher BMI and victimization, but only for girls. Further, being victimised increased the likelihood that girls would put on weight over time, which then increased future victimization. The implications of these prospective findings for interventions are considered

A fast and reliable method for the delineation of tree crown outlines for the computation of crown openness values and other crown parameters

Numerous crown parameters (e.g., leaf area index, diameter, height, volume) can be obtained via the analysis of tree crown photographs. In all cases, parameter values are functions of the position of the crown outline. However, no standardized method to delineate crowns exists. To explore the effect of different outlines on tree crown descriptors, in this case crown openness (CO), and facilitate the adoption of a standard method free of user bias, we developed the program Crown Delineator that automatically delineates any outline around tree crowns following predetermined sensibility settings. We used different outlines to analyze tree CO in contrasting settings: using saplings from four species in young boreal mixedwood forests and medium-sized hybrid poplar trees from a low-density plantation. In both cases, the estimated CO increases when calculated from a looser outline, which had a strong influence on understory available light simulations using a forest simulator. These results demonstrate that the method used to trace crown outlines is an important step in the determination of CO values. We provide a much-needed computer-assisted solution to help standardize this procedure, which can also be used in many other situations in which the delineation of tree crowns is needed (e.g., competition and crown shyness)

The deep human prehistory of global tropical forests and its relevance for modern conservation

Significant human impacts on tropical forests have been considered the preserve of recent societies, linked to large-scale deforestation, resource mining, livestock grazing, and plantation industries. Cumulative archaeological evidence now demonstrates, however, that Homo sapiens has actively manipulated tropical forest ecologies for at least 45,000 years. It is clear that these millennia of impacts need to be taken into account when studying and conserving tropical forest ecosystems today. Nevertheless, archaeology has so far provided minimal practical insight into contemporary human-tropical forest interactions. Here, we review significant archaeological evidence for impacts of prehistoric hunter-gatherers, agriculturalists, and urban settlements on global tropical forests. We compare the challenges faced, as well as the solutions adopted, by these groups with those confronting present-day societies, which rely on tropical forests for ecosystem services, ranging from the maintenance of global carbon sinks to bioprospection for medicinal plants. We emphasise archaeology’s importance in not only promoting natural and cultural heritage in tropical forests, but also taking an active role in informing modern conservation and policy-making

Yield reductions in grain maize associated with the presence of European corn borer and Gibberella stalk rot in Québec

L'effet d'une infestation de la pyrale du maïs (Ostrinia nubilalis) [Lepidoptera: Pyralidae] et d'une infection de la fusariose des tiges causée par Gibberella zeae sur le rendement de huit lignées de maïs grain (Zea mays), de deux hybrides commerciaux et de six hybrides expérimentaux a été évalué de 1975 à 1980. Trois critères ont été utilisés: la criblure du feuillage, les dégâts totaux des plantes à la récolte et le rapport de la longueur des galeries creusées par les chenilles de pyrale dans les tiges sur la hauteur totale du plant. Pour la plupart des critères, les cultivars étaient significativement différents et l'infestation artificielle de pyrale du maïs a eu un effet presqu'à chaque année. Bien que le G. zeae ait eu un effet significatif sur les dégâts totaux à la récolte et le rendement en grain du maïs, aucune relation n'a pu être établie entre la maladie et la pyrale du maïs.The impact of European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis) [Lepidoptera: Pyralidae] infestation and stalk rot infection caused by Gibberella zeae on yield of eight grain maize (Zea mays) inbreds, two commercial and six experimental hybrids was evaluated from 1975 to 1980. Three criteria were used: leaf feeding, total plant damage at harvest and tunnel length/plant height ratio. For most criteria, the cultivars were significantly different and the artificial European corn borer infestation had an effect almost every year. Although G. zeae can have a signifiant effect on plant damage at harvest and yield of grain maize, no consistent link was found between stalk rot and European corn borer

\pi N and \eta p deexcitation channels of the N^* and \Delta baryonic resonances between 1470 and 1680 MeV

Two reactions, pp->ppX and pp->p\pi^+X, are used to study the 1.47<M<1.68 GeV baryonic mass range. Three different final states are considered in the invariant masses: N^* or \Delta^+, p\pi^0, and p\eta. The last two channels are defined by software cuts applied to the missing mass of the first reaction. Several narrow structures are extracted with widths \sigma(\Gamma) varying between 3 and 9 MeV. Some structures are observed in one channel but not in others. Such nonobservation may be due either to the spectrometer momenta limits or to the physics (e.g. no such disintegration channel is allowed from the narrow state considered). We tentatively conclude that the broad Particle Data Group (PDG) baryonic resonances N(1520)D13, N(1535)S11, Delta(1600)P33, and N(1675)D15 are collective states built from several narrow and weakly excited resonances, each having a (much) smaller width than the one reported by PDG.Comment: 29 pages, plus 50 (.png) figures Will be published in a slightly reduced size in Phys. Rev.