Program Applicants as a Comparison Group in Evaluating Training Programs: Theory and a Test

The authors begin with a thorough assessment of the many nonexperimental employment and training program evaluation techniques based on non-random comparison groups. These techniques typically use econometric methods to estimate the effects of employment and training programs by using comparison groups from non-program external sources. Then, recognizing the inherent drawbacks in these methods, Bell, Orr, Blomquist and Cain respond by reintroducing an evaluation method first implemented in the 1960s, the use of internal comparison groups consisting of nonparticipating program applicants. These groups include withdrawals, screen-outs and no-shows of the programs being evaluated in order to solve the selection bias problem. By applying to the program, say the authors, nonparticipating applicants reveal themselves to have some of the same difficult-to-measure, personal characteristics that inspire participants to seek help in response to their current economic situation. The methodology of this technique is updated, then tested against the random experimental findings derived from a controlled job training experiment, the AFDC Homemaker-Home Health Aide Demonstrations. Encouraging results are presented along with useful suggestions for designers and implementers of all types of program evaluations.https://research.upjohn.org/up_press/1080/thumbnail.jp

Methods Used to Evaluate Employment and Training Programs in the Past

The authors begin with a thorough assessment of the many nonexperimental employment and training program evaluation techniques based on non-random comparison groups. These techniques typically use econometric methods to estimate the effects of employment and training programs by using comparison groups from non-program external sources. Then, recognizing the inherent drawbacks in these methods, Bell, Orr, Blomquist and Cain respond by reintroducing an evaluation method first implemented in the 1960s, the use of internal comparison groups consisting of nonparticipating program applicants. These groups include withdrawals, screen-outs and no-shows of the programs being evaluated in order to solve the selection bias problem. By applying to the program, say the authors, nonparticipating applicants reveal themselves to have some of the same difficult-to-measure, personal characteristics that inspire participants to seek help in response to their current economic situation. The methodology of this technique is updated, then tested against the random experimental findings derived from a controlled job training experiment, the AFDC Homemaker-Home Health Aide Demonstrations. Encouraging results are presented along with useful suggestions for designers and implementers of all types of program evaluations.https://research.upjohn.org/up_press/1080/thumbnail.jp

Age estimation of Calliphora (Diptera: Calliphoridae) larvae using cuticular hydrocarbon analysis and Artificial Neural Networks

Cuticular hydrocarbons were extracted daily from the larvae of two closely related blowflies Calliphora vicina and Calliphora vomitoria (Diptera: Calliphoridae). The hydrocarbons were then analysed using Gas Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry (GC–MS), with the aim of observing changes within their chemical profiles in order to determine the larval age. The hydrocarbons were examined daily for each species from 1 day old larvae until pupariation. The results show significant chemical changes occurring from the younger larvae to the post-feeding larvae. With the aid of a multivariate statistical method (Principal Component Analysis and Artificial Neural Networks), samples were clustered and classified, allowing for the larval age to be established. Results from this study allowed larvae to be aged to the day with at worst, 87% accuracy, which suggests there is great potential for the use of cuticular hydrocarbons present on larvae to give an indication of their age and hence potentially a valuable tool for minimum PMI estimations

Pacific Atmospheric Sulfur Experiment (PASE): dynamics and chemistry of the south Pacific tropical trade wind regime

The Pacific Atmospheric Sulfur Experiment (PASE) was a comprehensive airborne study of the chemistry and dynamics of the tropical trade wind regime (TWR) east of the island of Kiritibati (Christmas Island, 157º, 20′ W, 2º 52′ N). Christmas Island is located due south of Hawaii. Geographically it is in the northern hemisphere yet it is 6–12º south of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) which places it in the southern hemisphere meteorologically. Christmas Island trade winds in August and September are from east south east at 3–15 ms−1. Clouds, if present, are fair weather cumulus located in the middle layer of the TWR which is frequently labeled the buffer layer (BuL). PASE provided clear support for the idea that small particles (80 nm) were subsiding into the tropical trade wind regime (TWR) where sulfur chemistry transformed them to larger particles. Sulfur chemistry promoted the growth of some of these particles until they were large enough to activate to cloud drops. This process, promoted by sulfur chemistry, can produce a cooling effect due to the increase in cloud droplet density and changes in cloud droplet size. These increases in particle size observed in PASE promote additional cooling due to direct scattering from the aerosol. These potential impacts on the radiation balance in the TWR are enhanced by the high solar irradiance and ocean albedo of the TWR. Finally because of the large area involved there is a large factional impact on earth’s radiation budget. The TWR region near Christmas Island appears to be similar to the TWR that persists in August and September, from southwest of the Galapagos to at least Christmas Island. Transport in the TWR between the Galapagos and Christmas involves very little precipitation which could have removed the aerosol thus explaining at least in part the high concentrations of CCN (≈300 at 0.5% supersaturation) observed in PASE. As expected the chemistry of sulfur in the trade winds was found to be initiated by the emission of DMS into the convective boundary layer (BL, the lowest of three layers). However, the efficiency with which this DMS is converted to SO2 has been brought into further question by this study. This unusual result has come about as result of our using two totally different approaches for addressing this long standing question. In the first approach, based on accepted kinetic rate constants and detailed steps for the oxidation of DMS reflecting detailed laboratory studies, a DMS to SO2 conversion efficiency of 60–73% was determined. This range of values lies well within the uncertainties of previous studies. However, using a completely different approach, involving a budget analysis, a conversion value of 100% was estimated. The latter value, to be consistent with all other sulfur studies, requires the existence of a completely independent sulfur source which would emit into the atmosphere at a source strength approximately half that measured for DMS under tropical Pacific conditions. At this time, however, there is no credible scientific observation that identifies what this source might be. Thus, the current study has opened for future scientific investigation the major question: is there yet another major tropical marine source of sulfur? Of equal importance, then, is the related question, is our global sulfur budget significantly in error due to the existence of an unknown marine source of sulfur? Pivotal to both questions may be gaining greater insight about the intermediate DMS oxidation species, DMSO, for which rather unusual measurements have been reported in previous marine sulfur studies. The 3 pptv bromine deficit observed in PASE must be lost over the lifetime of the aerosol which is a few days. This observation suggests that the primary BrO production rate is very small. However, considering the uncertainties in these observations and the possible importance of secondary production of bromine radicals through aerosol surface reactions, to completely rule out the importance of bromine chemistry under tropical conditions at this time cannot be justified. This point has been brought into focus from prior work that even at levels of 1 pptv, the effect of BrO oxidation on DMS can still be quite significant. Thus, as in the case of DMS conversion to SO2, future studies will be needed. In the latter case there will need to be a specific focus on halogen chemistry. Such studies clearly must involve specific measurements of radical species such as BrO

'Public administration in an age of austerity' : Positive lessons from policy studies

Peer reviewedPostprin

Overview of the MOSAiC expedition - Atmosphere

With the Arctic rapidly changing, the needs to observe, understand, and model the changes are essential. To support these needs, an annual cycle of observations of atmospheric properties, processes, and interactions were made while drifting with the sea ice across the central Arctic during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition from October 2019 to September 2020. An international team designed and implemented the comprehensive program to document and characterize all aspects of the Arctic atmospheric system in unprecedented detail, using a variety of approaches, and across multiple scales. These measurements were coordinated with other observational teams to explore cross-cutting and coupled interactions with the Arctic Ocean, sea ice, and ecosystem through a variety of physical and biogeochemical processes. This overview outlines the breadth and complexity of the atmospheric research program, which was organized into 4 subgroups: atmospheric state, clouds and precipitation, gases and aerosols, and energy budgets. Atmospheric variability over the annual cycle revealed important influences from a persistent large-scale winter circulation pattern, leading to some storms with pressure and winds that were outside the interquartile range of past conditions suggested by long-term reanalysis. Similarly, the MOSAiC location was warmer and wetter in summer than the reanalysis climatology, in part due to its close proximity to the sea ice edge. The comprehensiveness of the observational program for characterizing and analyzing atmospheric phenomena is demonstrated via a winter case study examining air mass transitions and a summer case study examining vertical atmospheric evolution. Overall, the MOSAiC atmospheric program successfully met its objectives and was the most comprehensive atmospheric measurement program to date conducted over the Arctic sea ice. The obtained data will support a broad range of coupled-system scientific research and provide an important foundation for advancing multiscale modeling capabilities in the Arctic

Elevated protein concentrations in newborn blood and the risks of autism spectrum disorder, and of social impairment, at age 10 years among infants born before the 28th week of gestation

Among the 1 of 10 children who are born preterm annually in the United States, 6% are born before the third trimester. Among children who survive birth before the 28th week of gestation, the risks of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and non-autistic social impairment are severalfold higher than in the general population. We examined the relationship between top quartile inflammation-related protein concentrations among children born extremely preterm and ASD or, separately, a high score on the Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS total score ≥65) among those who did not meet ASD criteria, using information only from the subset of children whose DAS-II verbal or non-verbal IQ was ≥70, who were assessed for ASD, and who had proteins measured in blood collected on ≥2 days (N = 763). ASD (N = 36) assessed at age 10 years is associated with recurrent top quartile concentrations of inflammation-related proteins during the first post-natal month (e.g., SAA odds ratio (OR); 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.5; 1.2–5.3) and IL-6 (OR; 95% CI: 2.6; 1.03–6.4)). Top quartile concentrations of neurotrophic proteins appear to moderate the increased risk of ASD associated with repeated top quartile concentrations of inflammation-related proteins. High (top quartile) concentrations of SAA are associated with elevated risk of ASD (2.8; 1.2–6.7) when Ang-1 concentrations are below the top quartile, but not when Ang-1 concentrations are high (1.3; 0.3–5.8). Similarly, high concentrations of TNF-α are associated with heightened risk of SRS-defined social impairment (N = 130) (2.0; 1.1–3.8) when ANG-1 concentrations are not high, but not when ANG-1 concentrations are elevated (0.5; 0.1–4.2)