A percentile‐based approach to rainfall scenario construction for surface‐water flood forecasts

A novel technique to produce reasonable worst‐case rainfall scenarios from ensemble forecasts is presented. This type of scenario is relevant for predicting the risk of localized, intense rainfall events with a duration between 15 min and several hours. Such rainfall events can cause surface‐water (pluvial) flooding. Producing useful forecasts of these events at lead times of more than a few hours is challenging due to the precision and accuracy in rainfall intensity, duration and location that is required. The technique described here addresses these challenges by constructing appropriate scenarios using a neighbourhood technique in combination with ensemble forecasting. It is similar to the distance‐dependent depth–duration analysis described in earlier studies, but it introduces an additional post‐processing step based on probability distribution functions of rainfall accumulation near a location of interest. This additional step makes the reasonable worst‐case scenarios less dependent on grid‐scale behaviour, and helps to generate scenarios with a consistent interpretation. The method is used to compare forecasts with a lead time of 6–36 hr to radar data for several case studies that occurred in Yorkshire. These comparisons also introduce new techniques to present maps of the reasonable worst‐case rainfall accumulation at each location

Firm dynamics and job creation in the United Kingdom:1998–2013

This article is motivated by a very simple question – ‘what types of firms create the most jobs in the UK economy?’ One popular answer to this question has been High-Growth Firms (HGFs). These firms represent only a small minority – the ‘Vital 6%’ – of the UK business population yet, but have a disproportionate impact on job creation and innovation. We re-visit the discussion launched by the 2009 National Endowment for Science, Technology and the Arts (NESTA) reports, which identified the 6% figure and, using more recent data, confirm the headline conclusion for job creation: a small number of job-creating firms (mostly small firms) are responsible for a significant amount of net job creation in the United Kingdom. Adopting our alternative preferred analytical approach, which involves tracking the growth performance of cohorts of start-ups confirms this conclusion; however, we find an even smaller number of job-creating firms are responsible for a very significant proportion of job creation. We conclude by considering the question – ‘what are the implications for policy choices?’

Preventing childhood obesity: what works?

Rates of overweight in North American children and adolescents have increased dramatically since the 1970s. Childhood obesity has reached epidemic proportions and calls for prevention and treatment programs to reverse this trend have been made. However, the evidence base needed for effective action is still incomplete, especially for childhood obesity prevention programs. This paper focuses on primary prevention of childhood obesity and has three aims: (1) to briefly describe current primary prevention approaches for childhood obesity and the evidence for their impact; (2) to elucidate promising, but untested intervention strategies using an ecological framework and evidence from experimental and epidemiological research on factors influencing children\u27s eating and weight status; and (3) to introduce a multiphase strategy for screening intervention components and building and evaluating potent interventions for childhood obesity. Most childhood obesity prevention programs have focused on school-aged children and have had little success. We suggest that, given these findings, prevention efforts should be expanded to explore other contexts in which children live as possible settings for intervention efforts, including the family and childcare settings. Given that 25% of preschool children are already overweight, intervening with children before school entry should be a priority. A review of experimental research on the developing controls of food intake in infancy and childhood suggests possible intervention strategies, focusing on parenting and aspects of the feeding environment. Epidemiological findings point to even earlier modifiable risk factors, including gestational weight gain, maternal prepregnancy weight, and formula feeding. However, the potential impact of altering these risk factors remains to be evaluated. In response to this problem, we suggest a new, multiphase method for accomplishing this, including screening intervention components, refining intervention designs and confirming component efficacy to build and evaluate potent, optimized interventions

Neuromechanical adaptations of foot function to changes in surface stiffness during hopping

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the American Physiological Society via the DOI in this recordHumans choose work-minimizing movement strategies when interacting with compliant surfaces. Our ankles are credited with stiffening our lower limbs and maintaining the excursion of our body's center of mass on a range of surface stiffnesses. We may also be able to stiffen our feet through an active contribution from our plantar intrinsic muscles (PIMs) on such surfaces. However, traditional modelling of the ankle joint has masked this contribution. We compared foot and ankle mechanics and muscle activation on Low, Medium and High stiffness surfaces during bilateral hopping using a traditional and anatomical ankle model. The traditional ankle model overestimated work and underestimated quasi-stiffness compared to the anatomical model. Hopping on a low stiffness surface resulted in less longitudinal arch compression with respect to the high stiffness surface. However, because midfoot torque was also reduced, midfoot quasi-stiffness remained unchanged. We observed lower activation of the PIMs, soleus and tibialis anterior on the low and medium stiffness conditions, which paralleled the pattern we saw in the work performed by the foot and ankle. Rather than performing unnecessary work, participants altered their landing posture to harness the energy stored by the sprung surface in the low and medium conditions. These findings highlight our preference to minimize mechanical work when transitioning to compliant surfaces and highlight the importance of considering the foot as an active, multi-articular, part of the human leg

Neuromechanical adaptations of foot function when hopping on a damped surface

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available on open access from the American Physiological Society via the DOI in this recordTo preserve motion, humans must adopt actuator-like dynamics to replace energy that is dissipated during contact with damped surfaces. Our ankle plantar flexors are credited as the primary source of work generation. Our feet and their intrinsic foot muscles also appear to be an important source of generative work, but their contributions to restoring energy to the body remain unclear. Here, we test the hypothesis that our feet help to replace work dissipated by a damped surface through controlled activation of the intrinsic foot muscles. We used custom-built platforms to provide both elastic and damped surfaces and asked participants to perform a bilateral hopping protocol on each. We recorded foot motion and ground reaction forces, alongside muscle activation, using intramuscular electromyography from flexor digitorum brevis, abductor hallucis, soleus and tibialis anterior. Hopping in the Damped condition resulted in significantly greater positive work and contact-phase muscle activation compared to the Elastic condition. The foot contributed 25% of the positive work performed about the ankle, highlighting the importance of the foot when humans adapt to different surfaces.Australian Research Council (ARC)QUEX Institut

The preparation of microfluidic architecture with monolithic materials using a dual porous silica structure.

A microfluidic device (MD) has been developed which features a porous silica (PS) monolithic disk synthesized from tetramethyl orthosilicate, incorporated into the device post-fabrication and sealed in place with a second PS monolithic layer, synthesized from potassium silicate. This dual porous silica (DPS) structure provides a pathway for sample introduction to the MD and offers an ideal platform for solid phase extraction (SPE) methodologies which can be rapidly and efficiently integrated into a chip-based format. All silica disk manufacture and functionalization was carried out in batch to provide a readily scalable method of production. Application of this design for processing samples was demonstrated using two alternative nucleic acid purification chemistries, yielding polymerase chain reaction amplifiable DNA extracted from 150 μL of human urine in less than 35 min. It is proposed that this DPS system could be further developed for a diverse range of chip-based SPE applications, providing an interface facilitating sample delivery and enabling SPE on-chip. Furthermore, to the author's knowledge it is the first reporting of two different types of PS amalgamated in a single MD

Classification and incidence of cancers in adolescents and young adults in England 1979–1997

Cancer patients aged 15–24 years have distinct special needs. High quality cancer statistics are required for service planning. Data presented by primary site are inappropriate for this age group. We have developed a morphology-based classification and applied it to national cancer registration data for England 1979–1997. The study included 25 000 cancers and 134 million person–years at risk. Rates for each diagnostic group by age, sex and time period (1979–83, 1984–87, 1988–92, 1993–1997) were calculated. Overall rates in 15–19 and 20–24-year-olds were 144 and 226 per million person–years respectively. Lymphomas showed the highest rates in both age groups. Rates for leukaemias and bone tumours were lower in 20–24 year olds. Higher rates for carcinomas, central nervous system tumours, germ-cell tumours, soft tissue sarcomas and melanoma were seen in the older group. Poisson regression showed incidence increased over the study period by an average of 1.5% per annum (P<0.0001). Significant increases were seen in non-Hodgkins lymphoma (2.3%), astrocytoma (2.3%), germ-cell tumours (2.3%), melanoma (5.1%) and carcinoma of the thyroid (3.5%) and ovary (3.0%). Cancers common in the elderly are uncommon in adolescents and young adults. The incidence of certain cancers in the latter is increasing. Future studies should be directed towards aetiology

A comparison of course-related stressors in undergraduate problem-based learning (PBL) versus non-PBL medical programmes

Background: Medical students report high levels of stress related to their medical training as well as to other personal and financial factors. The aim of this study is to investigate whether there are differences in course-related stressors reported by medical students on undergraduate problem-based learning (PBL) and non-PBL programmes in the UK. Method: A cross-sectional study of second-year medical students in two UK medical schools (one PBL and one non-PBL programme) was conducted. A 16-question self-report questionnaire, derived from the Perceived Medical Student Stress Scale and the Higher Education Stress Inventory, was used to measure course-related stressors. Following univariate analysis of each stressor between groups, multivariate logistic regression was used to determine which stressors were the best predictors of each course type, while controlling for socio-demographic differences between the groups. Results: A total of 280 students responded. Compared to the non-PBL students (N = 197), the PBL students (N = 83) were significantly more likely to agree that: they did not know what the faculty expected of them (Odds Ratio (OR) = 0.38, p = 0.03); there were too many small group sessions facilitated only by students resulting in an unclear curriculum (OR = 0.04, p < 0.0001); and that there was a lack of opportunity to explore academic subjects of interest (OR = 0.40, p = 0.02). They were significantly more likely to disagree that: there was a lack of encouragement from teachers (OR = 3.11, p = 0.02); and that the medical course fostered a sense of anonymity and feelings of isolation amongst students (OR = 3.42, p = 0.008). Conclusion: There are significant differences in the perceived course-related stressors affecting medical students on PBL and non-PBL programmes. Course designers and student support services should therefore tailor their work to minimise, or help students cope with, the specific stressors on each course type to ensure optimum learning and wellbeing among our future doctors

A qualitative account of young people's experiences of alcohol screening and brief interventions in schools: SIPS Jr-HIGH trial findings.

BACKGROUND: The United Kingdom (UK) has seen a decrease in the number of young people drinking alcohol. However, the UK prevalence of underage drinking still ranks amongst the highest in Western Europe. Whilst there is a wealth of evidence reporting on the effectiveness of both primary, and secondary interventions, there are few reports of the experiences of young people who receive them. METHODS: The present study reports findings from interviews with 33 young people who were involved in an alcohol screening and brief intervention randomized controlled trial in schools in England. All interviews were analysed using inductive applied thematic analysis. RESULTS: Three major themes were identified following the analysis process: 1) drinking identities and awareness of risk; 2) access to support and advice in relation to alcohol use; and 3) appraisal of the intervention and potential impact on alcohol use. CONCLUSIONS: There appeared to be a reluctance from participants to describe themselves as someone who drinks alcohol. Furthermore, those who did drink alcohol often did so with parental permission. There was variation amongst participants as to how comfortable they felt talking about alcohol issues with school staff. Overall participants felt the intervention was useful, but would be better suited to 'heavier' drinkers