Impacts on the global ocean circulation from vertical mixing and a collapsing ice sheet

The current view of the global meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is one where the Atlantic is a dominant basin for deep water formation, but with the potential for bipolar seesaws between the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic during catastrophic freshening events in either hemisphere. Here we investigate the stability of this paradigm through the response of an intermediate complexity coupled climate model, set in an oceanically more sensitive glacial configuration, to variation in the vertical mixing rates. It is found that the convective basin is set by the upper ocean diffusivity, with higher such diffusivities leading to a Pacific-dominated MOC. The upper ocean diffusivity is found to have a larger impact on the MOC than catastrophic flood events. It is known that deep ocean mixing rates were enhanced during glacial periods due to greater deep ocean tidal dissipation in the shallower oceans, with less extensive continental shelves. It is hypothesized that, combined with modified atmospheric states, there has been potential for the MOC to significantly alter between different glacial periods

Methodology for designing accelerated aging tests for predicting life of photovoltaic arrays

A methodology for designing aging tests in which life prediction was paramount was developed. The methodology builds upon experience with regard to aging behavior in those material classes which are expected to be utilized as encapsulant elements, viz., glasses and polymers, and upon experience with the design of aging tests. The experiences were reviewed, and results are discussed in detail

Estimating summer sea ice extent in the Weddell Sea during the early 19th century

Over the past 3 decades, discordant trends in sea ice extent have been observed between the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Arctic sea ice extent has been characterised by a rapid decline, whereas Antarctic sea ice extent, while highly variable interannually, has tended to increase. Climate models have so far failed to capture these trends. Coupled with the limited pre-1970 sea ice dataset, this poses a significant challenge to quantifying the mechanisms responsible for driving such trends. However, historical records from early Antarctic expeditions contain a wealth of information regarding the nature and concentration of sea ice. Such records have been underutilised, and their analysis may enhance our understanding of recent Antarctic sea ice variability. For the purpose of this study, nine records from eight Antarctic expeditions have been examined. Summer sea ice positions recorded during 1820–1843 have been compared to satellite observations from 1987–2017, as well as historical data for the period 1897–1917. Through analysis of these three time series, estimates for the northern limits of summer sea ice in the Weddell Sea during the early 19th century have been produced. The key findings of this study indicate a 19th century average core summer northernmost sea ice latitude in much of the Weddell Sea that was further north than during the modern era, with 19th century February having significantly more sea ice by all measures. However, late summer sea ice was most extensive in the early years of the 20th century.</p

A century of variation in the dependence of Greenland iceberg calving on ice sheet surface mass balance and regional climate change

Iceberg calving is a major component of the total mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). A century-long record of Greenland icebergs comes from the International Ice Patrol's record of icebergs (I48N) passing latitude 48° N, off Newfoundland. I48N exhibits strong interannual variability, with a significant increase in amplitude over recent decades. In this study, we show, through a combination of nonlinear system identification and coupled ocean-iceberg modelling, that I48N's variability is predominantly caused by fluctuation in GrIS calving discharge rather than open ocean iceberg melting. We also demonstrate that the episodic variation in iceberg discharge is strongly linked to a nonlinear combination of recent changes in the surface mass balance (SMB) of the GrIS and regional atmospheric and oceanic climate variability, on the scale of the previous 1-3 years, with the dominant causal mechanism shifting between glaciological (SMB) and climatic (ocean temperature) over time. We suggest that this is a change in whether glacial run-off or under-ice melting is dominant, respectively. We also suggest that GrIS calving discharge is episodic on at least a regional scale and has recently been increasing significantly, largely as a result of west Greenland sources. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved

Observations of radio pulses from CU Virginis

The magnetic chemically peculiar star CU Virginis is a unique astrophysical laboratory for stellar magnetospheres and coherent emission processes. It is the only known main sequence star to emit a radio pulse every rotation period. Here we report on new observations of the CU Virginis pulse profile in the 13 and 20\,cm radio bands. The profile is known to be characterised by two peaks of 100$\%$ circularly polarised emission that are thought to arise in an electron-cyclotron maser mechanism. We find that the trailing peak is stable at both 13 and 20\,cm, whereas the leading peak is intermittent at 13\,cm. Our measured pulse arrival times confirm the discrepancy previously reported between the putative stellar rotation rates measured with optical data and with radio observations. We suggest that this period discrepancy might be caused by an unknown companion or by instabilities in the emission region. Regular long-term pulse timing and simultaneous multi-wavelength observations are essential to clarify the behaviour of this emerging class of transient radio source.Comment: Accepted by MNRAS Letters; 5 pages, 2 figures, 3 table

NEMO-ICB (v1.0): interactive icebergs in the NEMO ocean model globally configured at eddy-permitting resolution

An established iceberg module, ICB, is used interactively with the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean model in a new implementation, NEMO–ICB (v1.0). A 30-year hindcast (1976–2005) simulation with an eddy-permitting (0.25°) global configuration of NEMO–ICB is undertaken to evaluate the influence of icebergs on sea ice, hydrography, mixed layer depths (MLDs), and ocean currents, through comparison with a control simulation in which the equivalent iceberg mass flux is applied as coastal runoff, a common forcing in ocean models. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), drift and melting of icebergs are in balance after around 5 years, whereas the equilibration timescale for the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is 15–20 years. Iceberg drift patterns, and Southern Ocean iceberg mass, compare favourably with available observations. Freshwater forcing due to iceberg melting is most pronounced very locally, in the coastal zone around much of Antarctica, where it often exceeds in magnitude and opposes the negative freshwater fluxes associated with sea ice freezing. However, at most locations in the polar Southern Ocean, the annual-mean freshwater flux due to icebergs, if present, is typically an order of magnitude smaller than the contribution of sea ice melting and precipitation. A notable exception is the southwest Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, where iceberg melting reaches around 50% of net precipitation over a large area. Including icebergs in place of coastal runoff, sea ice concentration and thickness are notably decreased at most locations around Antarctica, by up to ~ 20% in the eastern Weddell Sea, with more limited increases, of up to ~ 10% in the Bellingshausen Sea. Antarctic sea ice mass decreases by 2.9%, overall. As a consequence of changes in net freshwater forcing and sea ice, salinity and temperature distributions are also substantially altered. Surface salinity increases by ~ 0.1 psu around much of Antarctica, due to suppressed coastal runoff, with extensive freshening at depth, extending to the greatest depths in the polar Southern Ocean where discernible effects on both salinity and temperature reach 2500 m in the Weddell Sea by the last pentad of the simulation. Substantial physical and dynamical responses to icebergs, throughout the global ocean, are explained by rapid propagation of density anomalies from high-to-low latitudes. Complementary to the baseline model used here, three prototype modifications to NEMO–ICB are also introduced and discussed

Changes in wave climate over the northwest European shelf seas during the last 12,000 years

Because of the depth attenuation of wave orbital velocity, wave-induced bed shear stress is much more sensitive to changes in total water depth than tidal-induced bed shear stress. The ratio between wave- and tidal-induced bed shear stress in many shelf sea regions has varied considerably over the recent geological past because of combined eustatic changes in sea level and isostatic adjustment. In order to capture the high-frequency nature of wind events, a two-dimensional spectral wave model is here applied at high temporal resolution to time slices from 12 ka BP to present using paleobathymetries of the NW European shelf seas. By contrasting paleowave climates and bed shear stress distributions with present-day conditions, the model results demonstrate that, in regions of the shelf seas that remained wet continuously over the last 12,000 years, annual root-mean-square (rms) and peak wave heights increased from 12 ka BP to present. This increase in wave height was accompanied by a large reduction in the annual rms wave- induced bed shear stress, primarily caused by a reduction in the magnitude of wave orbital velocity penetrating to the bed for increasing relative sea level. In regions of the shelf seas which remained wet over the last 12,000 years, the annual mean ratio of wave- to (M-2) tidal-induced bed shear stress decreased from 1 (at 12 ka BP) to its present-day value of 0.5. Therefore compared to present- day conditions, waves had a more important contribution to large-scale sediment transport processes in the Celtic Sea and the northwestern North Sea at 12 ka BP

Teleology and Realism in Leibniz's Philosophy of Science

This paper argues for an interpretation of Leibniz’s claim that physics requires both mechanical and teleological principles as a view regarding the interpretation of physical theories. Granting that Leibniz’s fundamental ontology remains non-physical, or mentalistic, it argues that teleological principles nevertheless ground a realist commitment about mechanical descriptions of phenomena. The empirical results of the new sciences, according to Leibniz, have genuine truth conditions: there is a fact of the matter about the regularities observed in experience. Taking this stance, however, requires bringing non-empirical reasons to bear upon mechanical causal claims. This paper first evaluates extant interpretations of Leibniz’s thesis that there are two realms in physics as describing parallel, self-sufficient sets of laws. It then examines Leibniz’s use of teleological principles to interpret scientific results in the context of his interventions in debates in seventeenth-century kinematic theory, and in the teaching of Copernicanism. Leibniz’s use of the principle of continuity and the principle of simplicity, for instance, reveal an underlying commitment to the truth-aptness, or approximate truth-aptness, of the new natural sciences. The paper concludes with a brief remark on the relation between metaphysics, theology, and physics in Leibniz