A weak characterization of slow variables in stochastic dynamical systems

We present a novel characterization of slow variables for continuous Markov processes that provably preserve the slow timescales. These slow variables are known as reaction coordinates in molecular dynamical applications, where they play a key role in system analysis and coarse graining. The defining characteristics of these slow variables is that they parametrize a so-called transition manifold, a low-dimensional manifold in a certain density function space that emerges with progressive equilibration of the system's fast variables. The existence of said manifold was previously predicted for certain classes of metastable and slow-fast systems. However, in the original work, the existence of the manifold hinges on the pointwise convergence of the system's transition density functions towards it. We show in this work that a convergence in average with respect to the system's stationary measure is sufficient to yield reaction coordinates with the same key qualities. This allows one to accurately predict the timescale preservation in systems where the old theory is not applicable or would give overly pessimistic results. Moreover, the new characterization is still constructive, in that it allows for the algorithmic identification of a good slow variable. The improved characterization, the error prediction and the variable construction are demonstrated by a small metastable system

Expansion in CD39(+) CD4(+) Immunoregulatory T Cells and Rarity of Th17 Cells in HTLV-1 Infected Patients Is Associated with Neurological Complications

HTLV-1 infection is associated with several inflammatory disorders, including the neurodegenerative condition HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis (HAM/TSP). It is unclear why a minority of infected subjects develops HAM/TSP. CD4(+) T cells are the main target of infection and play a pivotal role in regulating immunity to HTLV and are hypothesized to participate in the pathogenesis of HAM/TSP. the CD39 ectonucleotidase receptor is expressed on CD4(+) T cells and based on co-expression with CD25, marks T cells with distinct regulatory (CD39(+)CD25(+)) and effector (CD39(+)CD25(-)) function. Here, we investigated the expression of CD39 on CD4(+) T cells from a cohort of HAM/TSP patients, HTLV-1 asymptomatic carriers (AC), and matched uninfected controls. the frequency of CD39(+)CD4(+) T cells was increased in HTLV-1 infected patients, regardless of clinical status. More importantly, the proportion of the immunostimulatory CD39(+)CD25(-) CD4+ T-cell subset was significantly elevated in HAM/TSP patients as compared to AC and phenotypically had lower levels of the immunoinhibitory receptor, PD-1. We saw no difference in the frequency of CD39(+)CD25(+) regulatory (Treg) cells between AC and HAM/TSP patients. However, these cells transition from being anergic to displaying a polyfunctional cytokine response following HTLV-1 infection. CD39(-)CD25(+) T cell subsets predominantly secreted the inflammatory cytokine IL-17. We found that HAM/TSP patients had significantly fewer numbers of IL-17 secreting CD4(+) T cells compared to uninfected controls. Taken together, we show that the expression of CD39 is upregulated on CD4(+) T cells HAM/TSP patients. This upregulation may play a role in the development of the proinflammatory milieu through pathways both distinct and separate among the different CD39 T cell subsets. CD39 upregulation may therefore serve as a surrogate diagnostic marker of progression and could potentially be a target for interventions to reduce the development of HAM/TSP.National Institute of Allergies and Infectious DiseasesNational Institutes of HealthUniversity of CaliforniaSan Francisco-Gladstone Institute of Virology & Immunology Center for AIDS ResearchFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)John E. Fogarty International CenterNational Center for Research ResourcesNational Institute of General Medical Sciences from the National Institutes of HealthUniv Calif San Francisco, Dept Med, Div Expt Med, San Francisco, CA 94143 USAUniv Hawaii, John A Burns Sch Med, Dept Trop Med, Hawaii Ctr AIDS, Honolulu, HI 96822 USAUniv São Paulo, Sch Med, Deparment Infect Dis, São Paulo, BrazilUniv São Paulo, Sch Med, Div Clin Immunol & Allergy, São Paulo, BrazilFuncacao Prosangue, Hemoctr São Paulo, Mol Biol Lab, São Paulo, BrazilUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Dept Translat Med, São Paulo, BrazilUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Dept Translat Med, São Paulo, BrazilSan Francisco-Gladstone Institute of Virology & Immunology Center for AIDS Research: P30 AI027763FAPESP: 04/15856-9/KallasFAPESP: 2010/05845-0/KallasFAPESP: 11/12297-2/SanabaniJohn E. Fogarty International Center: D43 TW00003National Center for Research Resources: 5P20RR016467-11National Institute of General Medical Sciences from the National Institutes of Health: 8P20GM103466-11Web of Scienc

A structured telephone-delivered intervention to reduce problem alcohol use (Ready2Change): study protocol for a parallel group randomised controlled trial

Background: Current population surveys suggest around 20% of Australians meet diagnostic criteria for an alcohol use disorder. However, only a minority seek professional help due to individual and structural barriers, such as low health literacy, stigma, geography, service operating hours and wait lists. Telephone-delivered interventions are readily accessible and ideally placed to overcome these barriers. We will conduct a randomised controlled trial (RCT) to examine the efficacy of a standalone, structured telephone-delivered intervention to reduce alcohol consumption, problem severity and related psychological distress among individuals with problem alcohol use. Methods/design: This is a single site, parallel group, two-arm superiority RCT. We will recruit 344 participants from across Australia with problem alcohol use. After completing a baseline assessment, participants will be randomly allocated to receive either the Ready2Change (R2C) intervention (n = 172, four to six sessions of structured telephone-delivered intervention, R2C self-help resource, guidelines for alcohol consumption and stress management pamphlets) or the control condition (n = 172, four phone check-ins < 5 min, guidelines for alcohol consumption and stress management pamphlets). Telephone follow-up assessments will occur at 4-6 weeks, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months post-baseline. The primary outcome is the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) score administered at 3 months post-baseline. Secondary outcomes include change in AUDIT score (6 and 12 months post-baseline), change in number of past-month heavy drinking days, psychological distress, health and wellbeing, quality of life, client treatment evaluation and cost effectiveness. Discussion: This study will be one of the first RCTs conducted internationally to examine the impact of a standalone, structured telephone-delivered intervention to address problem alcohol use and associated psychological morbidity. The proposed intervention is expected to contribute to the health and wellbeing of individuals who are otherwise unlikely to seek treatment through mainstream service models, to reduce the burden on specialist services and primary care providers and to provide an accessible and proportionate response, with resulting cost savings for the health system and broader community. Trial registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12618000828224. Pre-registered on 16 May 2018

Mechanisms of decadal variability in the Labrador Sea and the wider North Atlantic in a high-resolution climate model

A necessary step before assessing the performance of decadal predictions is the evaluation of the processes that bring memory to the climate system, both in climate models and observations. These mechanisms are particularly relevant in the North Atlantic, where the ocean circulation, related to both the Subpolar Gyre and the Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is thought to be important for driving significant heat content anomalies. Recently, a rapid decline in observed densities in the deep Labrador Sea has pointed to an ongoing slowdown of the AMOC strength taking place since the mid 90s, a decline also hinted by in-situ observations from the RAPID array. This study explores the use of Labrador Sea densities as a precursor of the ocean circulation changes, by analysing a 300-year long simulation with the state-of-the-art coupled model HadGEM3-GC2. The major drivers of Labrador Sea density variability are investigated, and are characterised by three major contributions. First, the integrated effect of local surface heat fluxes, mainly driven by year-to-year changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation, which accounts for 62% of the total variance. Additionally, two multidecadal-to-centennial contributions from the Greenland-Scotland Ridge outflows are quantified; the first associated with freshwater exports via the East Greenland Current, and the second with density changes in the Denmark Strait Overflow. Finally, evidence is shown that decadal trends in Labrador Sea densities are followed by important atmospheric impacts. In particular, a negative winter NAO response appears to follow the positive Labrador Sea density trends, and provides a phase reversal mechanism

Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system

We assess the ability of the DePreSys3 prediction system to predict austral summer precipitation (DJF) over southern Africa, defined as the African continent south of 15°S. DePresys3 is a high resolution prediction system (at a horizontal resolution of ~ 60 km in the atmosphere in mid-latitudes and of the quarter degree in the Ocean) and spans the long period 1959–2016. We find skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability, relative to a long-term trend; the anomaly correlation skill score over southern Africa is greater than 0.45 for the first summer (i.e. lead month 2–4), and 0.37 over Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia for the second summer (i.e. lead month 14–16). The skill is related to the successful prediction of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the successful simulation of ENSO teleconnections to southern Africa. However, overall skill is sensitive to the inclusion of strong La-Nina events and also appears to change with forecast epoch. For example, the skill in predicting precipitation over Mozambique is significantly larger for the first summer in the 1990–2016 period, compared to the 1959–1985 period. The difference in skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability over southern Africa in different epochs is consistent with a change in the strength of the observed teleconnections of ENSO. After 1990, and consistent with the increased skill, the observed impact of ENSO appears to strengthen over west Mozambique, in association with changes in ENSO related atmospheric convergence anomalies. However, these apparent changes in teleconnections are not captured by the ensemble-mean predictions using DePreSys3. The changes in the ENSO teleconnection are consistent with a warming over the Indian Ocean and modulation of ENSO properties between the different epochs, but may also be associated with unpredictable atmospheric variability

Cognitive Reserve and the Prevention of Dementia: the Role of Physical and Cognitive Activities

Purpose of Review: The article discusses the two most significant modifiable risk factors for dementia, namely, physical inactivity and lack of stimulating cognitive activity, and their effects on developing cognitive reserve. Recent Findings: Both of these leisure-time activities were associated with significant reductions in the risk of dementia in longitudinal studies. In addition, physical activity, particularly aerobic exercise, is associated with less age-related gray and white matter loss and with less neurotoxic factors. On the other hand, cognitive training studies suggest that training for executive functions (e.g., working memory) improves prefrontal network efficiency, which provides support to brain functioning in the face of cognitive decline. Summary: While physical activity preserves neuronal structural integrity and brain volume (hardware), cognitive activity strengthens the functioning and plasticity of neural circuits (software), thus supporting cognitive reserve in different ways. Future research should examine whether lifestyle interventions incorporating these two domains can reduce incident dementia

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Mitotic Arrest in Teratoma Susceptible Fetal Male Germ Cells

Formation of germ cell derived teratomas occurs in mice of the 129/SvJ strain, but not in C57Bl/6 inbred or CD1 outbred mice. Despite this, there have been few comparative studies aimed at determining the similarities and differences between teratoma susceptible and non-susceptible mouse strains. This study examines the entry of fetal germ cells into the male pathway and mitotic arrest in 129T2/SvJ mice. We find that although the entry of fetal germ cells into mitotic arrest is similar between 129T2/SvJ, C57Bl/6 and CD1 mice, there were significant differences in the size and germ cell content of the testis cords in these strains. In 129T2/SvJ mice germ cell mitotic arrest involves upregulation of p27KIP1, p15INK4B, activation of RB, the expression of male germ cell differentiation markers NANOS2, DNMT3L and MILI and repression of the pluripotency network. The germ-line markers DPPA2 and DPPA4 show reciprocal repression and upregulation, respectively, while FGFR3 is substantially enriched in the nucleus of differentiating male germ cells. Further understanding of fetal male germ cell differentiation promises to provide insight into disorders of the testis and germ cell lineage, such as testis tumour formation and infertility

Does psychological status influence clinical outcomes in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and other chronic gastroenterological diseases: An observational cohort prospective study

Background: Whether there is a temporal relationship between psychological problems and clinical outcomes in patients with diseases of the digestive tract has not been widely researched. Thus, our aims were 1) To observe and compare prospectively clinical outcomes in relation to psychological co-morbidity in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) and chronic hepatitis C (HCV) and, 2) To test the hypothesis that patients with psychological co-morbidities are less likely to have a satisfactory response to standard treatment at 12 months. Methods: Overall, 139 patients were enrolled in this observational cohort prospective study. Over the ensuing year, physical and psychological measures were made at baseline and after 12 months (HADS, SCL90, SF-12 and disease activity measures). A logistic regression was conducted to observe any relationship between baseline characteristics and patients' clinical outcomes after 12 months. Results: Overall, there was no relationship between psychological status and quality of life at baseline and relapse at 12 months (p &gt; 0.05). However, patients with inactive disease at baseline were at lower risk of relapse after 12 months (OR = 0.046, CI: 0.012–0.178). No significant relationship was found between psychological problems such as depression/anxiety and a total number of relapses in the IBD group. However, interestingly, patients with an active disease at baseline tended to have a greater number of relapses (OR = 3.07, CI: 1.650–5.738) and CD participants were found at lower risk of relapse than UC participants (OR = 0.382, CI: 0.198–0.736). Conclusion: In contrast to previous investigations, this study suggests that there is no temporal relationship between psychological problems at baseline and clinical outcomes over time. Longer and larger prospective studies are needed to better understand this result.Antonina A Mikocka-Walus, Deborah A Turnbull, Nicole T Moulding, Ian G Wilson, Gerald J Holtmann and Jane M Andrew