Time-series Analysis of Clusters in City Size Distributions

Complex systems, such as urban systems, emerge unpredictably without the influence of central control as a result of adaptive behavior by their component, interacting agents. This paper analyses city size distributions, by decade, from the south-western region of the United States for the years 1890–1990. It determines if the distributions were clustered and documents changes in the pattern of clusters over time. Clusters were determined utilizing a kernel density estimator and cluster analysis. The data were clustered as determined by both methods. The analyses identified 4–7 clusters of cities in each of the decades analysed. Cities cluster into size classes, suggesting variability in growth rates at different scales

An Experimental Evaluation of Deliberate Unsoundness in a Static Program Analyzer

Abstract. Many practical static analyzers are not completely sound by design. Their designers trade soundness in order to increase automa-tion, improve performance, and reduce the number of false positives or the annotation overhead. However, the impact of such design decisions on the effectiveness of an analyzer is not well understood. In this pa-per, we report on the first systematic effort to document and evaluate the sources of unsoundness in a static analyzer. We present a code in-strumentation that reflects the sources of deliberate unsoundness in the.NET static analyzer Clousot. We have instrumented code from several open source projects to evaluate how often concrete executions violate Clousot’s unsound assumptions. In our experiments, this was the case in 8–29 % of all analyzed methods. Our approach and findings can guide users of static analyzers in using them fruitfully, and designers in finding good trade-offs.

The cost-effectiveness of expanding the UK newborn bloodspot screening programme to include five additional inborn errors of metabolism

Glutaric aciduria type 1, homocystinuria, isovaleric acidaemia, long-chain hydroxyacyl CoA dehydrogenase deficiency and maple syrup urine disease are all inborn errors of metabolism that can be detected through newborn bloodspot screening. This evaluation was undertaken in 2013 to provide evidence to the UK National Screening Committee for the cost-effectiveness of including these five conditions in the UK Newborn Bloodspot Screening Programme. A decision-tree model with lifetable estimates of outcomes was built with the model structure and parameterisation informed by a systematic review and expert clinical judgment. A National Health Service/Personal Social Services perspective was used, and lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were discounted at 1.5%. Uncertainty in the results was explored using expected value of perfect information analysis methods together with a sensitivity analysis using the screened incidence rate in the UK from 2014 to 2018. The model estimates that screening for all the conditions is more effective and cost saving when compared to not screening for each of the conditions, and the results were robust to the updated incidence rates. The key uncertainties included the sensitivity and specificity of the screening test and the estimated costs and QALYs

Disseminated Effects in Agent Based Models: A Potential Outcomes Framework and Application to Inform Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Coverage Levels for HIV Prevention

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention may not only benefit the individual who uses it, but also their uninfected sexual risk contacts. We developed an agent-based model using a novel trial emulation approach to quantify disseminated effects of PrEP use among men who have sex with men in Atlanta, USA from 2015 to 2017. Components (subsets of agents connected through partnerships in a sexual network, but not sharing partnerships with any other agents) were first randomized to an intervention coverage level or control, then within intervention components, eligible agents were randomized to PrEP. We estimated direct and disseminated (indirect) effects using randomization-based estimators and reported corresponding 95% simulation intervals across scenarios ranging from 10% to 90% coverage in the intervention components. A population of 11,245 agents was simulated with an average of 1,551 components identified. Comparing agents randomized to PrEP in 70% coverage components to control agents, there was a 15% disseminated risk reduction in HIV incidence (95% simulation intervals = 0.65, 1.05). Individuals not on PrEP may receive a protective benefit by being in a sexual network with higher PrEP coverage. Agent-based models are useful to evaluate possible direct and disseminated effects of HIV prevention modalities in sexual networks

Projected effects of disruptions to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention services during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic among Black/African American men who have sex with men in an Ending the HIV Epidemic priority jurisdiction

BACKGROUND: Disruptions in access to in-person human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) preventive care during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may have a negative impact on our progress towards the Ending the HIV Epidemic goals in the United States. METHODS: We used an agent-based model to simulate HIV transmission among Black/African American men who have sex with men in Mississippi over 5 years to estimate how different reductions in access affected the number of undiagnosed HIV cases, new pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) starts, and HIV incidence. RESULTS: We found that each additional 25% decrease in HIV testing and PrEP initiation was associated with decrease of 20% in the number of cases diagnosed and 23% in the number of new PrEP starts, leading to a 15% increase in HIV incidence from 2020 to 2022. CONCLUSIONS: Unmet need for HIV testing and PrEP prescriptions during the COVID-19 pandemic may temporarily increase HIV incidence in the years immediately after the disruption period

Modeling Forbidden Line Emission Profiles from Colliding Wind Binaries

This paper presents calculations for forbidden emission line profile shapes arising from colliding wind binaries. The main application is for systems involving a Wolf-Rayet (WR) star and an OB star companion. The WR wind is assumed to dominate the forbidden line emission. The colliding wind interaction is treated as an archimedean spiral with an inner boundary. Under the assumptions of the model, the major findings are as follows. (a) The redistribution of the WR wind as a result of the wind collision is not flux conservative but typically produces an excess of line emission; however, this excess is modest at around the 10% level. (b) Deviations from a flat-top profile shape for a spherical wind are greatest for viewing inclinations that are more nearly face-on to the orbital plane. At intermediate viewing inclinations, profiles display only mild deviations from a flat-top shape. (c) The profile shape can be used to constrain the colliding wind bow shock opening angle. (d) Structure in the line profile tends to be suppressed in binaries of shorter periods. (e) Obtaining data for multiple forbidden lines is important since different lines probe different characteristic radial scales. Our models are discussed in relation to ISO data for WR 147 and gamma Vel (WR11). The lines for WR 147 are probably not accurate enough to draw firm conclusions. For gamma Vel, individual line morphologies are broadly reproducible but not simultaneously so for the claimed wind and orbital parameters. Overall, the effort demonstrates how lines that are sensitive to the large-scale wind can help to deduce binary system properties and provide new tests of numerical simulations.Comment: to appear in MNRA

Windscapes shape seabird instantaneous energy costs but adult behavior buffers impact on offspring

Acknowledgements K. Ashbrook, M. Barrueto, K. Elner, A. Hargreaves, S. Jacobs, G. Lancton, M. LeVaillant, E. Grosbellet, A. Moody, A. Ronston, J. Provencher, P. Smith, K. Woo and P. Woodward helped in the field. J. Nakoolak kept us safe from bears. N. Sapir and two anonymous reviewers provided very useful comments on an earlier version of our manuscript. R. Armstrong at the Nunavut Research Institute, M. Mallory at the Canadian Wildlife Service Northern Research Division and C. Eberl at National Wildlife Research Centre in Ottawa provided logistical support. F. Crenner, N. Chatelain and M. Brucker customized the GPS at the IPHC-CNRS. KHE received financial support through a NSERC Vanier Canada Graduate Scholarship, ACUNS Garfield Weston Northern Studies scholarship and AINA Jennifer Robinson Scholarship and JFH received NSERC Discovery Grant funding. J. Welcker generously loaned some accelerometers. All procedures were approved under the guidelines of the Canadian Council for Animal Care.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Tumour profiling tests to guide adjuvant chemotherapy decisions in early breast cancer: a systematic review and economic analysis

Background Breast cancer and its treatment can have an impact on health-related quality of life and survival. Tumour profiling tests aim to identify whether or not women need chemotherapy owing to their risk of relapse. Objectives To conduct a systematic review of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the tumour profiling tests oncotype DX® (Genomic Health, Inc., Redwood City, CA, USA), MammaPrint® (Agendia, Inc., Amsterdam, the Netherlands), Prosigna® (NanoString Technologies, Inc., Seattle, WA, USA), EndoPredict® (Myriad Genetics Ltd, London, UK) and immunohistochemistry 4 (IHC4). To develop a health economic model to assess the cost-effectiveness of these tests compared with clinical tools to guide the use of adjuvant chemotherapy in early-stage breast cancer from the perspective of the NHS and Personal Social Services. Design A systematic review and health economic analysis were conducted. Review methods The systematic review was partially an update of a 2013 review. Nine databases were searched in February 2017. The review included studies assessing clinical effectiveness in people with oestrogen receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative, stage I or II cancer with zero to three positive lymph nodes. The economic analysis included a review of existing analyses and the development of a de novo model. Results A total of 153 studies were identified. Only one completed randomised controlled trial (RCT) using a tumour profiling test in clinical practice was identified: Microarray In Node-negative Disease may Avoid ChemoTherapy (MINDACT) for MammaPrint. Other studies suggest that all the tests can provide information on the risk of relapse; however, results were more varied in lymph node-positive (LN+) patients than in lymph node-negative (LN0) patients. There is limited and varying evidence that oncotype DX and MammaPrint can predict benefit from chemotherapy. The net change in the percentage of patients with a chemotherapy recommendation or decision pre/post test ranged from an increase of 1% to a decrease of 23% among UK studies and a decrease of 0% to 64% across European studies. The health economic analysis suggests that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for the tests versus current practice are broadly favourable for the following scenarios: (1) oncotype DX, for the LN0 subgroup with a Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) of > 3.4 and the one to three positive lymph nodes (LN1–3) subgroup (if a predictive benefit is assumed); (2) IHC4 plus clinical factors (IHC4+C), for all patient subgroups; (3) Prosigna, for the LN0 subgroup with a NPI of > 3.4 and the LN1–3 subgroup; (4) EndoPredict Clinical, for the LN1–3 subgroup only; and (5) MammaPrint, for no subgroups. Limitations There was only one completed RCT using a tumour profiling test in clinical practice. Except for oncotype DX in the LN0 group with a NPI score of > 3.4 (clinical intermediate risk), evidence surrounding pre- and post-test chemotherapy probabilities is subject to considerable uncertainty. There is uncertainty regarding whether or not oncotype DX and MammaPrint are predictive of chemotherapy benefit. The MammaPrint analysis uses a different data source to the other four tests. The Translational substudy of the Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination (TransATAC) study (used in the economic modelling) has a number of limitations. Conclusions The review suggests that all the tests can provide prognostic information on the risk of relapse; results were more varied in LN+ patients than in LN0 patients. There is limited and varying evidence that oncotype DX and MammaPrint are predictive of chemotherapy benefit. Health economic analyses indicate that some tests may have a favourable cost-effectiveness profile for certain patient subgroups; all estimates are subject to uncertainty. More evidence is needed on the prediction of chemotherapy benefit, long-term impacts and changes in UK pre-/post-chemotherapy decisions. Study registration This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017059561. Funding The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme